value and opportunity

Following my Old Mutual “sum of parts” valuation I saw the following Ira Sohn presentation of Exor Spa, the Agnelli family holding (FiatChysler, CNH etc.) as a potential  “Sum of part” value investment.

To summarize the presentation  in my own words:

• Exor Spa is basically a “Berkshire like” company at a “Graham” valuation
• Exor is managed by a “great capital allocator” and trades at a discount as people see it as an Italian company
• After the acquisition of Reinsurance Partner Re Exor should trade at similar valuations as Berkshire or Markel
• Big upside potential as FiatChrysler, Ferrari (and CNH) are severely undervalued (“Coiled springs”)

The study sees a potential upside of several times the current share price. They forecast a 150 EUR NAV per share (vs. ~50 EUR now and 30 EUR share prices), driven by a quadrupling in value of the FCA and the CNH stakes.

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