Profile and interview with Willbur Ross
Ray Delio about deleveraging
Howard Mark’s latest comment
A small triumph for the excellent IBEX salad blog
Good write up for the short case Manchester United
Interesting analysis on a listed opportunity fund from the Brooklyn Investor
WexBoy is looking for uncorrelated investment ideas
As some might remember, I kind of like the Magic Sixes Screen (P/E < 6, P/B 6%) initially mentioned by Peter Cundill.
Many of the “Magic Sixes” companies are declining and/or cyclical companies which do not score well on my Boss Screen which is looking for stable companies.
The exception at first sight seems to be French DIY chain Mr. Bricolage.
A couple of weekes ago I had looked at luxury stocks as potential short opportunities and Michael Kors as a potential short but decided against it for the time being.
Yesterday, Burberry, the UK luxury Group issued relatively weak numbers and the share price dropped by some -20%.
For those who don’t read the outstanding Bronte Capital blog regularly, I can ony recommend: put it on your priority reading list.
After his not so well timed Richemont short, he has now set his eyes on Chinese company Focus Media from China.
Focus Media is a (on paper) fantastically profitable company from China wich was already subject of a Mudddy Waters report.
John Hempton has now a real series of very detailed posts about the company:
Quite surprisingly, Poujoulat announced a stock split 1:4,, this is the release from Poujoulat:
En date du 21 juin 2012, l’Assemblée Générale de la société POUJOULAT a décidé la division par 4 de la valeur nominale de l’action POUJOULAT négociée sur le marché ALTERNEXT Paris. Cette mesure permettra de fluidifier les échanges et de rendre le titre POUJOULAT plus accessible (son cours étant actuellement supérieur à 130€) En pratique, l’opération de division par 4 sera réalisée sur les soldes EUROCLEAR du vendredi 7 septembre prochain et sera effective le lundi 10 septembre à l’ouverture du marché. Les détenteurs d’actions POUJOULAT se verront attribuer automatiquement 4 actions nouvelles pour une ancienne.
Les droits antérieurs rattachés aux actions ne seront pas modifiés, notamment le bénéficie du droit de vote double pour toute action gérée au nominatif pur depuis plus de 24 mois. Le nombre d’actions POUJOULAT en circulation sur ALTERNEXT Paris sera ainsi porté de 489 750 à 1 959 000.
Let’s wait and see if this somehow helps the stock or not.
This post was inspired by an interesting paper which explores how much of WBs success is attributable to leverage.
The authors calculate that Buffet applied (mostly through his insurance float and debt a leverage ratio of between 1.4:1 to 1.6:1 over the life of Berkshire.I would speculate that this might be even higher if one factors in his sales of S&P puts and CDS protection.
However, for the ordinary investor it is quite difficult to gain access to cheap insurance float and the AAA funding cost Warren Buffet enjoys.
So what are the alternatives for “normal” investors ?
Reader Ben forwarded me his great write up for Curanum, the German care and serviced appartment provider for senior citizens which I publish with his permission:
Curanum AG – Write Up (1)
His conclusion was as follows, but I think one should read the whole piece although Ben is not recommending the stock at the moment::
As overcapacity is expected to be reduced in the upcoming years I expect occupancy rates to recover from their current lows. As this will give Curanum some time to breathe, the management will have to make additional investments in their facilities to be able to comply with regulatory requirements. From my perspective there is not much room for additional acquisitions for the following reasons.
First, the company is highly leveraged. Second, the company just increased its number of outstanding shares by almost 20%. Hence, demand from equity holders should be satisfied at the moment and banks are currently reluctant to even refinance existing debt. Given the high cost pressure and limited pricing power a further decline in margins within the next years is highly likely from my perspective. The company is currently generating healthy cash flows, though capex seems to be too low, which will negatively affect cash flow generation in the future. Most of this is reflected in the current share price, so I do not think that Curanum is a prime short candidate.
To the contrary, given the current downside trend in the stock price, the sock seems to be ready for a rebound. A short term catalyst could be a successful refinancing of the maturing debt facility. However, from a long term investor perspective I do not think that the company does offer an attractive risk/return profile.