Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Performance review 9m 2020 – Comment “Covid 19 Portfolio Lottery & the allure of speculation”

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In the first 9 months of 2020, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +3,7% (including dividends, no taxes) against a loss of -6.9% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Since inception (01.01.2011), this translates into +201 % vs. 98%  for the Benchmark.

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 9M 2020:

Partners Fund TGV: +6,3%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -4,1%
Squad European Convictions +5,99%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -19,82% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -6,1%
Evermore Global Value  –18.37%(USD)
Greiff Special Situation -3.69%
Squad Aguja Special Situation 12.45%
Paladin One 15.94%

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All German Shares Part 31 (Nr. 676-700)

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And again 25 more randomly selected German shares with short analysis for each one. This time, seven (!!!) candidated were worth “wacthing”.

Maybe one remark: I asked last time for suggestions for the next series. however before I move on, I will also need to thin down the watch list to an amount that I can handle going forward. At the moment, the extended watch list comprises 141 (!!) stocks which I want to slim down to something like 25 or so.

676. mwb fairtrade Wertpapierhandelsbank AG

mwb is a 33 mn EUR market cap securities trading company. For some reasons, the stock price doubled in 2020, mabye a result of overall trading activity. As I do not undertand their business model, I’ll “pass”.

677. Bayerische Motorenwerke AG 

BMW is clearly one of the most famous German brands and one of the most successful car manufacturers in the world. With a market cap of ~39 bn USD, it is valued at a fraction of Tesla and the stock price is on a pretty long lasting downtrend:

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Some Links

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A deep look into the troubled airline industry

Interesting article on “Super Spy” and soon to be listed Mega Unicorn Palantir

Uber’s self driving car project is not making progress  and why fully autonomous driving is still years away

Scott Galloway wants Disney to “Unleash the Mouse”

Interesting slide deck on the transformation of the New York Times

Yetanothervalueblog on Interactive Corp and ANGI

A very useful collection of recent investment research papers

Panic Journal – Season 2: “Taking Stock”

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Two and a half months after the end of “Panic Journal Season 1”, it seems that “Season 2” is about to start (or has started already in some areas like Madrid or Israel, or never ended as in the US)

Time to summarize what from my point of view has changed or been confirmed since season 1:

Positives:
+ Vaccine efforts are well on the way. AstraZeneca, despite a short interruption still seems to be a forerunner and end of 2020 seems to be realistic for a functional vaccine to be available
+ although the US had many days with more than 1000 deaths a day, overall the ratio of deaths to reported infections seems to go down in most parts of the world

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All German Share part 30 (Nr. 651-675)

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Time flies, it’s more than a month since the last posting of this series. So another 25 randomly selected German stocks. Despite the usual duds, the dices this time brought up 6 stocks that I found in principle worth watching.

With “only” around 100 stocks left, I need to think about another market/area that I will cover in this systematic way. Suggestions highly welcome !

651. IFA Hotel & Touristik AG

IFA is a 242 mn EUR market cap company that has rarity value: I think it is the only remaining listed German stock that represents a “Hotel pure play”. However there are a few specialties to consider: The company is majority owned by the Spanish Lopesan Group. Lopesan did a lot of related party transactions with other Lopesan entities and IFA did a couple of capital increases without real necessity.

So far, there doesn’t seem to be any indication that Lopesan has screwed minorities. Some of the “Trades” were actually quite profitabel. Nevertheless, the stock is on a 2 years downtrend that just accelerated due to Covid-19:

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Some Links

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UK retailer Next Plc has a highly interesting 6M report with many deep thoughts on retail and Covid-19

A good reminder that SPACs still are bullsxxx

Interesting interview with author and financial historian Edward Chancellor

Some deep insights into an Japanese activist story (Ryoyo Electric) 

As indeed “winter is coming”, life will happen more outdoor than usual

A16Z on “deep” job platforms

A WSJ portrait of the short seller behind “Hindenburg Research” (Nikola)

 

Grenke fOllow up: Recap & Fundamentals (and why Grenke is actually a stealth insurance broker)

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and never believe anything from  anonymous bloggers !!!!

A first a quick quick recap on what happened since the last post.

Friday’s written statement from Grenke pre press/analyst was actually pretty lame. I think they made clear that the money laundering and Ponzi issue were indeed minor issues but they didn’t shed any more light on the whole CTP issue.

Unfortunately I missed the press/analyst call. From what I have heard there was nothing new.

A quite surprising statement from Grenke on Monday was more substantial. All past M&A transaction with Franchises will be checked by an independent auditor, Grenke AG will have the option to buy the existing non-consolidated franchises and Wolfgan Grenke will (temporarily) step down from the Supervisory Board. It is also mentioned, that in the future, Grenke AG will fund new franchises.

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Some Links

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Shocking news ! Fraud in Startup Land. How can this be ?

In Silicon Valley, “pre-telling the truth” is ok according to Alex Danco

For a change, FTAlphaville somehow recommends 4imprint, a UK based company 

IPO’s are maybe not that bad compared to SPACs and direct listings

A great deep dive on London-listed Hypgnosis Song fund

A very good deep dive feature on Masa Son (Softbank)

Very interesting long term projections on energy usage from BP

Grenke – Quick take oN the first statement from W. GRenke

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Disclaimer: There is some real wild speculation in this post which represents an explicit personal opinion from a concerned investor and nothing else. Please don’t take this seriously and please don’t sue me !!!!

Just a very quick update on Mr. Grenke’s release that came 1 hour later than announced (when my index finger already began to hurt from refreshing the home page).

I have copied out only the “juicy” part, highlights are mine:

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Grenke Leasing Short Attack – First analysis

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Background:

Long time readers of my blog know that I covered Grenke a while back and unfortunately invested instead in what I thought was the “Australian Grenke” with a pretty bad outcome.

Now Viceroy Research came out with a blazing short attack on Grenke. Viceroy seems to be the same guy that released the now famous “Zatarra Report” on Wirecard in 2016.

This post is a first attempt to look at the allegations in order to find out if they are true and how severe they potentially could be. At the time of writing, Grenke is down more ~ -20% and close to the lows from March.

1. Non disclosed related party transactions

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