Category Archives: Anlage Philosophie

Quick updates: Fuchs, EVS Broadcast, STEF & SFS

Posted on by 4 comments

Fuchs SE:
Let’s start with a negative surprise: Fuchs released 2 days ago that they will fall short of their (downward revised) 2025 forecast.

“For the financial year 2025, FUCHS now expects sales and EBIT on previous year’s level (financial year 2024: Sales at €3,525 million, EBIT at €434 million). The previous outlook for 2025 expected sales at around €3.7 billion and EBIT at around €460 million. Consensus for the financial year 2025 stands at
€3,660 million for sales and at €459 million for EBIT.”

Last year, when I decided to invest into Fuchs, the 2025 EBIT forecast was 500 mn EUR:

Read more

Performance review Q2 2025 – Comment: “Just keep going or reflect & adapt ?”

Posted on by 17 comments

In the first 6 months of 2025, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +5,8% (including dividends, no taxes) against a gain of +15,6% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog.

Performance review:

As mentioned in Q1, in relative terms 2025 turned out to be a tough year. Despite my traditional overweight in European stocks, I didn’t have enough exposure to performing sectors (Financials, Defense) but instead too much exposure to weak sectors like Oil/Energy related (ATD, DCC), Alcohol (TFF) or construction (Thermador, Samse etc.). I also had no expsoure to takeovers or buy outs.

The only positive news is that June was a relatively good month, in relative terms the best month since December 2023 and the first few days in July looked quite good as well.

Read more

Private Equity Mini Series (3): Listed Private Asset Managers (KKR, Apollo & Co)

Posted on by 3 comments

Background:

After part 2 of the Private Equity Mini series a few days ago, I wanted to focus on how to access the asset class as a private investor via the “normal” capital markets.

Currently, the PE industry and the broader “Private Asset” industry is massively trying to lure private investors into its Fund offering via a variety of “NEW” and usually structured instruments, such as “ELTIFS” in Europe or lobbying hard in the US to get access to private investors.

In the past, Private Assets, including its subgroups like Buyout, Venture, Growth, Infrastructure and Private Credit were “exclusive” to larger institutional investors and Ultra High Net Worth individuals.

These days, with declining commitments from those traditional investors, the PE industry now tries to access the vast pools of money that smaller, private investors collectively own.

Often you hear the pitch that now is the time to “democratize” the asset class, which is an expression that should make the targeted investors extremely nervous. I had linked to the excellent Bain PE report already in one of the link collections.

A key slide of the report is the one that shows that for the Buy-out category, 2024 was the first year ever with declining AuM:

Read more

Fraport (ISIN: DE0005773303) – An essential Infrastructure play geared up to “fly away” ?

Posted on by 8 comments

This is an investment idea that I have “borrowed” from my friend Jonathan Neuscheler from Abilitato. Therefore I highly recommend to read what he has written first. And this is also the reason why this write-up is rather short.

In short, I think Fraport is an interesting turn-around/deleveraging story with a near term catalyst in form of the resintatement of the dividend in 2026. Relative to its peers, Fraport trades at a significant discount which could disappear if things go according to plan which adds to the potential upside.

Here is the write-up (don’t worry, only 9 pages incl. pictures):

Read more

Some thoughts on DeepSeek- The Black Swan for MAG7 or something else ?

Posted on by 8 comments

For various reasons, I was able to spend much more time on this topic since Sunday than I would usually have. On Sunday morning, the topic somehow picked my interested and I have been trying to understand as a Non-Expert what is going on here.

For full disclosure: I have no positions in any of the MAG7 stocks, but that might make me equally biased than someone who has mortgaged his family home to invest in NVDIA.

On Sunday Morning, I initially used mostly Twitter, but during the day this was overflooded with MAGA Crap. Twitter is still a good place at an early stage for “virally developing situations”, bit it gets washed with (AI written) turd pretty quickly.

The DeepSeek topic is interesting on many dimensions. Here are some facts (taken from Wikipedia, but confirmed by other sources):

Read more

Jensen-Group (ISIN BE0003858751) – Hidden European Champion at a “Dirt Cheap” price

Posted on by 46 comments

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!!

As mentioned in the Performance review, I had already build up a new position in late 2024 in a new stock. This time I will try something new: I will only post a few sections of the write-up and only those who send me an email will receive the full version (for free of course).. The reason for this is that I am really interested how many of the readers are actally reading the full document. The bonus song of course is included in this post at the end.

      0. Investment meme

For some strange reason, I felt the urge to start the pitch with this rather “German humor” meme:

  1. Elevator pitch:

Jensen-Group, a company originally from Denmark, now listed in Belgium, is a 420 mn EUR market cap “hidden champion” that is the world market leader in “Heavy laundry” equipment and automation. The company is run in third generation by the Jensen family which still controls 40% of the shares.

Read more

My 23 (+1) stocks for 2025

Posted on by 14 comments

Following an annual tradition since 2013, by the end of the year, I review my portfolio by writing/updating very short summaries for each individual position.  17 of the 23 positions from last year are still in the portfolio and I have added 6 new positions. That turnover has been mostly driven by reviews (Admiral, ABO Energy), or the price target had been reached (DEME) and by finding new ideas. A more comprehensive Performance review will follow in early January 2025.

A short user guide:
My preferred style of investing is a bottom up approach, focusing on 20-30 small/midcap stocks that in my opinion have a good return/risk profile over the next 3-5 (or more) years. Many of these stocks are not household names and are unlikely to make spectacular gains in any single year. Many of them look interesting only after the second or third glance and are rather boring, which is exactly what I am looking for. So if you are looking for a “Hot stock for 2025”, this post won’t help you much.

And always remember: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

As last year, I have created a portfolio overview chart based on holding periods which I proudly present here:

Read more

14th Anniversery of Value & Opportunity Blog

Posted on by 29 comments

Every year on December 15th, the blog celebrates another anniversary, because on that day in December 2010, the blog went live for the first time.

As always there will be a separate performance portfolio review in the beginning of January.  After a short break, I had to do a new “Panic Series” post due to the result of the US election.

With the rather “mixed” performance of my portfolio this year and the many headwinds, the motivation to write clearly has suffered a little bit, but having seen these situations before, of course I will continue to blog with the clear goal to become the longest running financial blog on the planet. In the subcategory of non-paywal financial blogs with a transparent investment portfolio, I would guess there are not many challengers.

Read more

« Older Entries Recent Entries »