Category Archives: Special Situation

OTC Adventures: Rocket Internet AG – Jump on this Rocket and get some Kalshi & SpaceX exposure for free ?

HEALTH WARNING & DISCLAIMER
This is not Investment Advice. The stock discussed in this post is a “Pink Sheet” OTC stock with limited liquidity and almost no reporting. The author may own, buy or sell shares in this company without pre-warning. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!

As a change to previous write-ups, I will start with the sound track for this write-up. And of course it is “Rocket Man” from Elton John. It fits in more than one way to this Special situation and you maybe want to listen to it while reading the write-up.

Elton John – Rocket Man (Official Music Video) 

As again, this write-up became a little bit longer, I’ll just show the “elevator pitch” here but will embed the PDF document.

0. Elevator Pitch

Rocket Internet AG,  a former German Venture Capital super star company run by the Samwer brothers has gone “dark” and delisted in 2020. Since then, the stock price languished until more recently, when a German activist sent an open letter to Management and the auditors criticizing the “low balling” of accounting numbers. Diving a little bit deeper, some true gems are hidden in Rocket Internet’s portfolio, especially a participation in SpaceX and prediction market superstar Decacorn Kalshi. The current share price reflects most likely less than 50% the current NAV. In my opinion, the upcoming SpaceX IPO and further positive development of Kalshi could maybe act as a “catalyst” and lead to a higher share price. In addition there is a (low) chance that Rocket Internet might distribute another special dividend as they did in 2024.

Bombardier – A potentially successful Aerospace turnaround shot down by Trump Tariffs ?

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

Background:

Bombardier is a Canadian company that after a colorful past as a conglomerate and an “almost bankruptcy” in 2020 is now fully focused on manufacturing Private Jets and until recently has been a poster child of a very successful turn-around. My friend @Govro12 from the Wintergems substack has written a very nice post on Bombardier just a few weeks ago which I highly recommend to read.

High level Presentation:

Although I only could convince myself to buy a small starter position (<1%, to keep me interested), I presented Bombardier as a potential interesting investment case in a private investor meeting some days ago. Here is the presentation which I admit is pretty high level. Spoiler alert: I would not recommend to invest right now.

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Ocean Wilsons (OCN-LN) Update – Error in the NAV calculation

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. The guy who is writing this has problems distinguishing USD and GBP. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

A friendly reader alerted me that I made an error in the Ocean Wilson Special Situation NAV calculation. I seem to have gotten confused by the fact that Ocean Wilson reports in USD. I did translate the Wilson and Sons stake into GBP but not the investment portfolio. Instead of 319,6 mn GBP, the investment portfolio is worth 319,6 mn USD which equates ~ 239,7 mn GBP

So the initial calculation should have rather looked like this:

The expected return is a full -8% lower than inititally (and wrongly) calculated. Still not bad, but clearly less advantageous.

Based on this, I reduced the positon to a ~1% position.

I am deeply sorry for this mistake and a big thanks to the reader who alerted me. Going forward I will need to be more dilligent for these calculations-

One other remark: A reader congratulated that my post has moved the stock price. This is not my intent for the blog. I try to avoid writing about illiquid stocks as some readers tend not to read the posts and seem to blindly buy. With Ocean Wilson, I was very surprised how illiquid this 500 mn Market cap stock actually is. For me this is a good lesson for the future that I don’t write much about illiquid stocks. I leave that to others.

Ocean Wilsons (OCN.LN) – Deep Value “Sum of the parts” Special Situation with a Catalyst

Disclaimer: This is not investment Advice. Never trust an anonymous dude on the internet. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!

As always, I have attached a pdf with the full writeup and only focus on a few sections in this post. And the Sound Track of course.

  1. Elevator pitch:

      Ocean-Wilsons, a UK listed, Bermuda domicile HoldCo which owns a 56% stake in a listed Brazilian Port/Maritime company called Wilson Sons and an investment portfolio, is trading a a deep discount (-48%) to  its SOTP value. Now however it seems very likely that the Brazilian Asset will be sold by year end 2024, which could potentially trigger a re-rating of the stock on top of any premium paid in the sale. 

      2. Introduction:

        Longer term readers of my blog know that in addition to investing into boring GARP stocks, I also invest into Special Situations from time to time. A special situation is a more short term oriented investment with a clear trigger or catalyst. In earlier times, I did more of them, these days I have less time and only look into them if they jump at me but usually with a relatively small allocation. There are different types of Special Situations. This one is of the “Undervalued company sells major operating asset” type of Situation, of which I have done a few in the past. The last one was Exmar two years ago with a decent outcome.

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