Tag Archives: ai

Some thoughts on Vibe Coding, SaaS vs AI (10 Moats) and Guidewire Software

Posted on by 13 comments

Executive Summary:

This post does not contain any actionable investment advice but rather some personal ramblings on Vibe coding and the attempt to analyze a specific Software company (Guidewire) according to a Template of 10 Moats for Software companies and their vulnerability to the AI threat.

Introduction:

My track record as a Software investor is to put it mildly, very poor. My best Software Investment so far is Chapters Group which I bought as a net-net before it even became a VMS Serial Acquirer. My blog and portfolio archive also tell me that I sold Microsoft in 2011 at ~25$ per share with a 4% gain because I thought that the Office products had no future. So please take everything I say about Software with a grain of salt or even better, just ignore it.

I do have a background in Software development. Although I would not call it Software development but “Code butchering”. It started as a teenager on a C64 with Basic and Assembler and ended in the late 1990s with Cobol/PLSQL working for a large US Consulting Company (yes, I was young and needed the money). Knowing the speed of financial institutions, I would not be surprised if some of my Spaghetti code would still be running somewhere….

Why am I saying this ? Because of course, Software stocks have been doing quite poorly over the past weeks/months. In addition, I also had the opportunity to play around with Claude Code first hand. 

Pages: 1 2

Innoscripta SE: 60% EBIT margins & rapid growth but why did the 2025 IPO flop ?

Posted on by 11 comments

Management summary: 

Innoscripta, a young German “SaaS company” which IPOed in 2025 came to my attention because it is extremely profitable (EBIT margin 60%) and growing like crazy (10x in sales since 2020). However, because of the unique revenue model (success fee instead of software fees) and a rapid decrease in quarterly growth in 2025, I am currently not investing, although the stock is not super expensive at 21x trailing P/E. But I will keep a close watch. 

The 2025 IPO 

Innoscripta was one of the few “official” IPOs in Germany in 2025. If we look at the share price, it was not a very successful one: 

Read more

Pages: 1 2

Random ramblings on AI

Posted on by 4 comments

You didn’t ask for it but you get it nevertheless: Some random thoughts on various aspects of Artificial Intelligence. Spoiler: No actionable insights (I think).

Gemini 3.0. vs. Nvidia

Google Gemini 3.0 seems to be a really good model. I am currently using it with my prompts and it seems a little bit better but not that much.  NotebookLM seems to have improved a lot.

However, according to various sources, the model was trained and runs exclusively on Google TPU chips. The Nvidia Bulls keep saying that Nvidia has such a large advantage including their software, that those ultrafat margins will persist for many years as there is no alternative. I am not so sure about this. 

This is the EBIT margin development of NVIDIA since 2002:

Read more

Some thoughts on DeepSeek- The Black Swan for MAG7 or something else ?

Posted on by 8 comments

For various reasons, I was able to spend much more time on this topic since Sunday than I would usually have. On Sunday morning, the topic somehow picked my interested and I have been trying to understand as a Non-Expert what is going on here.

For full disclosure: I have no positions in any of the MAG7 stocks, but that might make me equally biased than someone who has mortgaged his family home to invest in NVDIA.

On Sunday Morning, I initially used mostly Twitter, but during the day this was overflooded with MAGA Crap. Twitter is still a good place at an early stage for “virally developing situations”, bit it gets washed with (AI written) turd pretty quickly.

The DeepSeek topic is interesting on many dimensions. Here are some facts (taken from Wikipedia, but confirmed by other sources):

Read more