Tag Archives: kabel deutschland

Kabel Deutschland & Vodafone reloaded

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One of my two remaining short position gets “smoked” today. Kabel Deutschland is up ~7% to a new ATH:

The reason is once again the (now somehow confirmed) rumour that Vodafone wants again to take over KAbel Deutschland:

It started (again with the “rumour” as last time:

(Reuters) – Vodafone Group Plc has made an informal takeover bid within the past week for Germany’s biggest cable company, Kabel Deutschland Holding AG, Bloomberg reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

In the meantime, to my surprise, Vodafone confirmed the talks:

LONDON—Vodafone Group PLC said it has approached Germany’s biggest cable operator Kabel Deutschland Holding AG about a possible takeover, a move that would mark the U.K. mobile-phone company’s largest acquisition in Europe in more than a decade and add more customers to its triple-play offering of TV, mobile and broadband.

“There is no certainty that any offer will ultimately be made, nor as to the terms on which any such offer might be made,” Vodafone said in a brief statement Wednesday.

Kabel Deutschland confirmed it has received a preliminary approach from Vodafone, but also said there is no certainty an offer will be made.

So this is clearly against my expectations when I made the short. I have to admit that I don’t understand Vodafone. Why would they start such talks again with the danger of a leak again when the exact same thing happened a few months ago.

My only explanation is that they are either extremely desperate or extremely stupid. Or both.

Vodafone shareholders didn’t seem to be too enthusiastic either. So lets wait and see what happens. One first lesson is clear: Never underestimate the stupidity of others. Vodafone has done already one horrible overpriced German acquisition (Mannesmann) in the past. However, most likely most of those people who did this back then were already fired and now they make the same mistake again.

Clearly I also made a mistake here. It is definitely much more risky to short stocks with no majority shareholder in an industry which is famous for overpaying for M&A transactions.

EDIT: Real time comment for a quite “famous” Vodafone investor:

Vittorio Colao the urbane but seemingly incompetent CEO of Vodafone is the new Sir Fred Goodwin.

Kabel Deutschland Aktienplatzierung & Goldman Sachs

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Tja, was für ein Zufall aber auch. Im Dezember nimmt Goldmann Sachs Kabel Deutschland auf seine Conviction Buy Liste.

Ende Februar erhöht man das Kursziel dann nochmal ein wenig. Mit 57,10 EUR Kursziel liegt man einsam an der Spitze aller 20 bei Bloomberg verfügbaren Analystenschätzungen.

Als Belohnung darf jetzt Goldman 20 Mio Aktien oder knapp 800 Mio EUR der “Heuschrecke” platzieren.

Das Ganze natürlich lt. Pressebericht aus ausschliesslich altruistischen Motiven:

With that placement, more than 70 million shares representing approximately 78% of the Company’s total 90 million shares are in the free float, increasing liquidity in the stock and strengthening the Company’s MDAX ranking.

Da Goldman in der Regel 2-3% Fee für so einen Deal nimmt, sind das mal schlanke 15-20 Mio. EUR Gewinn für die Goldies. Wer sich jetzt wundert, warum der Markt so an den 38 EUR klebt

Für die Fees müssen die Goldies natürlich ein wenig den Markt stabilisieren, damit die armen Fondsmanager die die Aktien gekauft haben nicht gleich ganz blöd aus der Wäsche schauen. So wie man Goldman kennt, nutzen sie dazu wahrscheinlich auch noch Kundengelder.

Zusätzlich hat man natürlich bei der “Heuschrecke” einen Fuss für weitere Kabeldeals in der Tür. Schon clever die Jungs, das hätte wohl selbst “Stock Operator” Jesse Livermore nicht besser gekonnt.

Ausserdem auch ein guter Hinweis mit welchen Beweggründen solche bullischen Analysen geschrieben werden.