Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Performance review Q1 2025 – Comment: “Negotiation tactics & Achilles Heel”

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In the first 3 months of 2025, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +0,9% (including dividends, no taxes) against a gain of +7,2% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog.

Performance review:

After 2023 and 2024, 2025 once again looks like a year where it will be hard to compete with my benchmark. This is how the individual parts of the benchmark performed in Q1:

Eurostoxx 50: +7,6%
DAX: +11,2%
Eurostoxx small: +3,1%
MDAX: +7,1%

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Bombardier – A potentially successful Aerospace turnaround shot down by Trump Tariffs ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

Background:

Bombardier is a Canadian company that after a colorful past as a conglomerate and an “almost bankruptcy” in 2020 is now fully focused on manufacturing Private Jets and until recently has been a poster child of a very successful turn-around. My friend @Govro12 from the Wintergems substack has written a very nice post on Bombardier just a few weeks ago which I highly recommend to read.

High level Presentation:

Although I only could convince myself to buy a small starter position (<1%, to keep me interested), I presented Bombardier as a potential interesting investment case in a private investor meeting some days ago. Here is the presentation which I admit is pretty high level. Spoiler alert: I would not recommend to invest right now.

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Some links 08/2025

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If you have 2 hours to spare and want to know more about AI LLMs than 99,8% of your peers, then this video from Andrej Karpathy is what you should watch

Maynard Payton on Filtronic, one of the very few winners on the UK AIM Market

BYD shocked competitors with Super-duper fast charging some days ago. And it’s being rolled out in April.

The Private jet market is doing very well

Smoking Mariuana really seems to impact consumer behaviour. I wonder how that would interplay with Ozempic.

The Behind the Balancesheet Substack with a nice summary of a recent Value & growth conference in New York

The “Dividend anomaly” could be quite easily exploited

Some links 07/2025

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The Wintergem Substack with a very interesting write-up on Canadian Business Jet Maker Bombardier

Behind the Balance Sheet with a great deep dive into the business of Finance/Investing Substacks

A very interesting article on the influence of Korean retail investors in the most volatile US securities

Lego’s profit margins are in decline (but still very high)

Richard Beddard looks at UK Smallcap Dotdigital

A good overview of the “Private Infrastructure” Asset Class from Larry Swedrow

A decent summary of the current “hangover in Alcohol stocks”

Quick update Thermador & Some thoughts on Defence stocks

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Thermador 2024 numbers

Thermador released 2024 numbers last Friday. The most positive part of the release is the fact that Thermador manages to put everything you need to know on two pages without any BS. The numbers were clearly not good, with sales down -13,5% in 2024 and profit down -23,3%:

On the positive side, Thermador seems to continue to look for acquisition targets:

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Some links 06/2025

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Highly Recommended: Rob Vinall’s 2024 letter is out

Paul Singer is a very rare Podcast guest. So if he appears, do listen/watch. A true “living legend”.

Heat waves and droughts are really bad for GDP in the mid- to long term

Flyover Stocks with a great post on how capital cycles work (Examples Bourbon & Home building)

Maynard Payton with an interesting write-up of BIG Technologies, a UK based “fallen Angel” IPO

The new Mauboussin Paper “Probabilities and Payoffs” is worth reading

An interesting article on a busted Austrian Private Equity deal and the pitfalls of “adjusted EBITDA”

Some links 05/2025

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Recommended: Wexboy with his 2024 portfolio & performance review

A great video explaining the East 72 Dynasty portfolio with a lot of interesting “family owned” companies

Some deep thoughts from the Brooklyn Investor on the “Broken Markets” theme

Nat Bullard’s annual presentation is a must for anyone interested in the energy sector

An interesting analysis that shows that “real assets” were not good hedges against inflation following Covid

Fantastic post why you should never rely on Bullshxt Earnings errrr Adjusted EBITDA

Royce Funds Microcap 2024 review with some summaries of US microcaps

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