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STEF S.A. (ISIN FR0000064271) – An “Ice Cold” Quality Compounder at a “bonkers bargain” price

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

As always with my more detailed writeups, I will focus on the general sections in the post and attach the full pdf for anyone interested in the details. And of course the Bonus Sound Track.

  1. Elevator pitch:

STEF SA is a pretty unique listed French company that runs a “temperature controlled” agrifood supply chain and logistics business across 8 European countries. Majority owned by its Directors and Employees (~72%) the company has compounded book value, earnings and dividends by 12% p.a. over the past 22 years with little or no impact from any of the big crises (GFC, Euro, Covid, Ukraine) that hit Europe in the meantime.

This business trades at an incredible low 8x trailing P/E which in my opinion, considering the track record, their growth opportunities and the “essential infrastructure” character is a “bonkers bargain”.

Some shorter term headwinds exist (interest rates, French politics, agrifood inflation), but in the mid- to long term the set.up for very decent shareholder return is excellent, with very limited fundamental downside, 

  1. Introduction:

I have looked superficially at STEF from time to time but for some reason, I never went deeper but kept it on my watch list. Only recently, when I scored my watchlist more systematically, STEF came out as pretty attractive. In addition, the current political tensions in France motivated me to dig deeper.

  1. The Company & The business

3.1. What Problem does STEF solve ?

STEF is active in “temperature controlled” storage and transport of food from the manufacturers to either wholesalers, retailers or restaurants. Many food items are perishable and the warmer the environment, the faster these items will go bad. In many cases, going bad can effect severe health problems for the ultimate end customer. STEF, with its triukcs and especially warehouses helps to keep food cool and fresh without incurring too high costs for this service.

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Some links 12/2024

Very interesting article on non-bank “Private Credit” that fueled the recent Private Equity Boom and its structural issues

Joachim Klement with a very interesting statistic on PE funds and the success of “late” investments

Potentially big if true: SDK claims breakthrough in solid state battery technology (FT, search result)

Interesting opinion: The output of ChatGPT &Co is essentially BS

A fantastic post by Noahopinion on why so many “viral charts” are essentially BS, too (and what to look for)

John Kingham does a deep dive on Diageo as a potential Dividend Growth stock

M. Mauboussin on the rising concentration on the US stock market

EVS Broadcast SA – A Hidden Global Champion “Breaking free from the Van” with Software & AI at a Bargain Price

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

As always with my more detailed writeups, I will focus on the gernal section in the post and attach the full pdf for anyone interested in the details.

  1. Elevator pitch:

EVS Broadcast is a 400 mn EUR market cap Belgian technology firm that is the global leader in Live sports broadcasting/production technology that once earned margins higher than Nvidia does today.

After a relatively long phase of stagnation from 2008-2019, EVS seems to have found its path to decent growth again under new management. The main driver is a new technology cycle that will shift the product offerings from hardware focused solutions to more Software/Saas products and a move into adjacent markets (Studio production).

For a company with EBIT margins > 20%, capital return >20%, net cash and a targeted growth rate of 10% p.a. (which they have achieved since 2019), the current valuation of ~9x EV EBIT or 10-11x P/E is dirt cheap and offers considerable upside for the patient investor.

As EVS has been working on AI solutions since at least 2017 and has already functioning products to show, one gets any potential “AI upside optionality” for absolutely free. 

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Some links 11/2024

A nice deep dive into Agfa-Gevaert from the “Healthy Stock Picks” Substack

And another analysis of a Belgian stalwart, Bekaert from Alex Sweet

The WinterGems substack with a write-up on Monarch Cement plus an extra North America “Cement deep dive”

A good reminder: You probably don’t need Alternative Inevstments to become rich

Another good reminder that high concentration in portfolios is not always beneficial

The (container) shipping industry once again is looking strained due to bottlenecks (FT, search result)

MIT Superstar Economist Daren Acemoglu is vey sceptical on any major benefits from AI (FT, search result)

All Belgian Shares part 3 – Nr. 41-60

Another month, another 20 randomly selected Belgian shares. This time, I found 3 stocks worth watching. The Expert Market so far is quite disappointing, but let’s see if there is maybe a gem or two among all the other stuff.

41. BPost

BPost with a market cap of 700 mn EUR seems to be the former state monopoly mail and parcel company in Belgium which is still majority owned by the Belgian Government. The stock looks cheap, but looking at the share price it seems to be more like a melting ice cube. Operating margins have been declining from 18% in 2013 to 5% in 2023.

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Some links 07/2024

Wintergems Blog with another interesting Japanese Small cap write-up (Takeuchi)

Mat Roiss with a list of potentially interesting HK stocks

Some interesting takeaways from Fundsmith’s anual investors meeting

According to Stratechery, Google is at an existential crossroad

Great portfolio review from Carsten at Augustusville

A very interesting story on why Women in South Korea don’t want to have children anymore

Ted Giola on the “Dopamine Culture” promoted by the Big Tech companies

Performance review Q3 2023 – Comment: “How tall should your hurdle be ?”

In the first 9 months of 2023, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +6,5% (including dividends, no taxes) against a gain of +8,3% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 9M 2023:

Partners Fund TGV: -0,9% (as of Sep 15th)
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +12,9%
Squad European Convictions 5,7%
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen +4,9%
Squad Aguja Special Situation +2,4%

Paladin One -4,7%
Alphastars Europe +4,9%

Performance review:

Within a quarter, the YTD performance jumped from close to the bottom of the peer group to second position. Looking at the monthly returns, it is not difficult to see that especially August and September were in relative terms very good:

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Mikron Group AG – Super Cheap (EV/EBIT ~4) and +33% EBIt 6M 2023- what is not to like ?

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

Spoiler: If you are short on time: I did not buy a position here. No need to read everything.

Mikron is a company that I had on my (passive) radar since my “All Swiss shares” series some years ago (since I passed on it, it made around +100%, so keep this in mind for the rest of the post). It is a Swiss based machinery manufacturer with a market cap of 200 mn CHF and has some connection to SFS (SFS is a client, same Chairman in the past).

These were the main items that motivated me to looks deeper into Mikron this time:

+ currently very (very !!) cheap (P/E 7,5, EV/EBIT 3,5)
+ currently VERY good business momentum (6M 2023: Sales +22%, EBIT +33%)
+ better customer/product mix than in the past
+ Rock solid balance sheet (100 mn CHF cash vs 200 mn CHF market cap)
+ good share price momentum

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Some links

Verdad thinks that systematically shorting one day options could generate Alpha

Chemical companies are facing big fines for PFaS/ Forever Chemicals in the US (Hello Bayer !!!)

Already a few weeks old, but Prof. Damodarans post on what makes banks risky and the sequel on how to value bank stocks ar both worth reading

Clarke Square Capital thinks that now is the time for Lastminute.com to shine

Marc Andreesen (not surprisingly) thinks that AI will save the world

Ben Thompson is a big fan of the new Apple Vision Pro

And all you need to know about Farmland investing

Lopgistec Update – “Strategic review” consideratios

With a small delay, a few thoughts on the “strategic review process” at Logistec, a stock I had written up and added to my portfolio two months ago.

Govro has already published an excellent post about the situation in his Wintergem Blog here. He estimates that a sale at ~9xEV EBITDA could result in an offer of CAD 76 per share. However, he points out that this is just the start of a process and it could well be that there will be no sale at the end, especially as due to the high interest rates, the infrastructure sector is not super hot at the moment.

The Logistec share price has increased from around 43 CAD per share before the announcement to around 60 CAD at the time of writing. Funnily enough, this is almost exactly half way between the “undisturbed price” and Govro’s sale price estimate.

Correcting a mistake: Extra Asset

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