If I update my simple sum of part valuation, we can see the following:
Market values listed companies:
So the listed subs have slightly increased in value.
Now looking at the unlisted, I will simply assume 9 Month EBITDA will equal 75% of total EBITDA:
|9 month EBITDA||12M est||EV Multiple||EV|
|Bouygues Real estate||117||156||7||1,092|
Compared to the 6 month numbers I used last time, Telco is slightly below 6M run rates, construction and real estate perfom better.
Both, listed and unlisted subsidiaries in theory look better than at the time of my initial analysis. Net debt has slightly increased to 5.8 bn form 5 bn, mainly due to a 2 bn purchase of mobile licenses in France.
Putting this together, the updated fair value of Bouygues equity at “sum of parts” would be 6,65 bn + 12.075 bn -5.8 bn = 10.9 bn or around 35 EUR per share. From my point of view I see no fundamental reason why the shares have dropped quite substantially. I guess this is more “market psychology” following the announcement of France Telecom to cut their dividend.
However the stock chart looks really ugly now, although I am not a stock chart expert, there doesn’t seem to be any “technical” support on the downside and momentum is clearly negative:
Fundamentally the company seems to be “on track” at least compared to my investment case. So I will use today’s low prices to “fill up” again the current 2.2% position to 2.5% weight, further purchases will follow if the stock goes below 17 EUR (and fundamentals remain stable).