Some links

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Two different approaches: Bireme Capital sticks to Value Investing whereas Forager has joined the SPAC party

A great three part holistic series from Prof. Damodaran on Value Investing: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3

Interesting deep dive into the often overlooked Geothermal Energy 

Morningstar on some lasting changes in consumer behavior from the pandemic

In-depth look into US vs. Google from Stratechery

An interesting portrait of Cliff Asness and his blog from UndervaluedShares

Crazy times: How Just mentioning Green Hydrogen by Management can push any (LNG) stock into the stratosphere 

Some links

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Fantastic deep dive into the future of music / audio from Mathew Ball

“Covid-19 hit big oil companies like an Asteroid” (Bloomberg)

Has Tesco finally become a potentially interesting investment ?

Very good overview of the German Fintech scene from Finanz-szene.de

Super interesting longform interview with Daniel Ek, founder and CEO of Spotify

A short look at Romanian stock Fondul Proprietatea S.A.

Stratechery with its trademark deep insight into DIsney

“Trading Corner” Part 1 – The rules, German Basket Cleansing & neW Trade: Play Magnus Group (ISIN NO0010890726)

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!!

Follow up

A big thank you top all readers who either commented on my open question  if and how to include “Trading positions” into the blog. Overall I concluded that I can allow myself the luxury of a small allocation to “trades” as long as I do it consistently and with good risk management. One of the luxuries of a private investor is indeed that one can allow oneself some fun without needing to explain it to third parties and having fun is important to stay motivated.

Following some additional deliberations, my approach (for the time being) will be the following:

  • I will allow myself up to max 10% and up to max 7 trading positions at any given time going forward
  • In order to track them I will write short summaries with a clear “game plan” for the position
  • Close ot in case of a pre defined loss is a must
  • The maximum time allowed will be set at 12 months and either they go out or get upgraded to my other “buckets” in order to avoid a lot of “Trade goes wrong and becomes investment” positions
  • However, the “German Basket” will be “sacrificed”, as this honestly is already some kind of “trading portfolio”

German Basket “cleansing”:

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Some links

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A long term reader has started an interesting blog called smallcapseurope.com. Check it out !

Another super interesting new blog with a focus on valuation techniques is Lawbitrage & The Art of Company Valuation. Highly recommended !!!

Very smart article why most institutional investors have very short time horizons

Undervaluedjapan with a nice write up on a super cheap Japanese steel company

Great deep dive on the demise of footnoted.com and the fight with a super secretive quant hedge fund

How Charles Schwab transformed itself into a finance giant

The UK value investor with a great take on the “Covid-19 lottery” within his portfolio

 

Performance review 9m 2020 – Comment “Covid 19 Portfolio Lottery & the allure of speculation”

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In the first 9 months of 2020, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +3,7% (including dividends, no taxes) against a loss of -6.9% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Since inception (01.01.2011), this translates into +201 % vs. 98%  for the Benchmark.

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 9M 2020:

Partners Fund TGV: +6,3%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -4,1%
Squad European Convictions +5,99%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -19,82% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -6,1%
Evermore Global Value  –18.37%(USD)
Greiff Special Situation -3.69%
Squad Aguja Special Situation 12.45%
Paladin One 15.94%

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All German Shares Part 31 (Nr. 676-700)

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And again 25 more randomly selected German shares with short analysis for each one. This time, seven (!!!) candidated were worth “wacthing”.

Maybe one remark: I asked last time for suggestions for the next series. however before I move on, I will also need to thin down the watch list to an amount that I can handle going forward. At the moment, the extended watch list comprises 141 (!!) stocks which I want to slim down to something like 25 or so.

676. mwb fairtrade Wertpapierhandelsbank AG

mwb is a 33 mn EUR market cap securities trading company. For some reasons, the stock price doubled in 2020, mabye a result of overall trading activity. As I do not undertand their business model, I’ll “pass”.

677. Bayerische Motorenwerke AG 

BMW is clearly one of the most famous German brands and one of the most successful car manufacturers in the world. With a market cap of ~39 bn USD, it is valued at a fraction of Tesla and the stock price is on a pretty long lasting downtrend:

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Some Links

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A deep look into the troubled airline industry

Interesting article on “Super Spy” and soon to be listed Mega Unicorn Palantir

Uber’s self driving car project is not making progress  and why fully autonomous driving is still years away

Scott Galloway wants Disney to “Unleash the Mouse”

Interesting slide deck on the transformation of the New York Times

Yetanothervalueblog on Interactive Corp and ANGI

A very useful collection of recent investment research papers

Panic Journal – Season 2: “Taking Stock”

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Two and a half months after the end of “Panic Journal Season 1”, it seems that “Season 2” is about to start (or has started already in some areas like Madrid or Israel, or never ended as in the US)

Time to summarize what from my point of view has changed or been confirmed since season 1:

Positives:
+ Vaccine efforts are well on the way. AstraZeneca, despite a short interruption still seems to be a forerunner and end of 2020 seems to be realistic for a functional vaccine to be available
+ although the US had many days with more than 1000 deaths a day, overall the ratio of deaths to reported infections seems to go down in most parts of the world

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All German Share part 30 (Nr. 651-675)

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Time flies, it’s more than a month since the last posting of this series. So another 25 randomly selected German stocks. Despite the usual duds, the dices this time brought up 6 stocks that I found in principle worth watching.

With “only” around 100 stocks left, I need to think about another market/area that I will cover in this systematic way. Suggestions highly welcome !

651. IFA Hotel & Touristik AG

IFA is a 242 mn EUR market cap company that has rarity value: I think it is the only remaining listed German stock that represents a “Hotel pure play”. However there are a few specialties to consider: The company is majority owned by the Spanish Lopesan Group. Lopesan did a lot of related party transactions with other Lopesan entities and IFA did a couple of capital increases without real necessity.

So far, there doesn’t seem to be any indication that Lopesan has screwed minorities. Some of the “Trades” were actually quite profitabel. Nevertheless, the stock is on a 2 years downtrend that just accelerated due to Covid-19:

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