Author Archives: memyselfandi007

All German Shares PArt 34 – Nr. 751-775

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At first some good (or bad) news: By going through the German stock markets once again, I detected that my initial list was already outdated and that I missed quite some new IPOs and listings, so there will be (at least) one more post with German shares after this one before I then can wrap up the series into a condensed watch list.

This time, the 25 (to a certain extent) randomly selected (and US election free) stocks resulted in seven stocks that might be in principal worth watching and/or follow up.

751. L-KONZEPT Holding AG

L-Konzept is a 2.7 mn EUR market cap real estate company that has little business and small but consistent losses. “pass”.

752. Krones AG

Krones, a 1.7 bn market cap company is often considered one of the typical “hidden champions”, being the world leader in manufacturing bottling machinery for the beverage industry. With Covid-19, the whole beverage industry is clearly negatively effected which in turn might make business more difficult for Krones. However if we look at the stock chart, we can see that the stock already peaked in 2018:

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Panic Journal Season 2 – The Dancing is getting Much Harder

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Back in lock down mode

Four weeks after my first post of “season 2” it is pretty clear: Wave 2 of Covid-19 is definitely here and growing.

In contrast to my assumption and the general feeling 4 weeks ago, Europe is now back in lock down mode. Certain areas in the UK, Spain, France, Italy and Belgium went into different forms of lock down already a few days ago. Here in Germany I think many Germans got the message, when the German Health Minister Jens Spahn had to announce that he got infected a few days ago. 

A “lock down light” will come into force in Germany on Monday with restrictions on contacts and closure of Restaurants and Bars. Austria just announced a harder version which for instance disallows any private visits after 8 pm which in effect is a 8pm curfew under another name.

What’s different this time compared to the first lock down ?

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Some links

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Interesting feature on Japan’s richest man Tadashi Yanai, founder of Uniqlo

Highly recommended: Superb write-up from smallcapseurope on Greek company Flexopack

UndervaluedShares thinks UK publisher Pearson is worth following

The Profit Hunting blog with an update of its dividend portfolio

Valuesque has a very useful primer on how to value stock option plans

Another “must read” from Ben Evans: On the future of retail and E-commerce (Spoiler: Nobody knows anything)

Despite his performance issues, David Einhorn’s Q3 letter is worth reading

All German Shares part 33 – Nr. 726-750

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And another 25 (almost) randomly selected stocks. This time 5 stocks were in my opinion worth “watching”. As it looks now, there will be only one more post in this series.

726. Smart Equity AG

A 1.7 mn EUR market cap company that calls itself “Experts on Crypto currencies”. “Pass”.

727. InnoTec TSS AG

Innotec is an 88 mn EUR market cap supplier to the construction industry. The company had a nice run up, increasing more than 10x from its low in 2009 until early 2017 as we can see in the chart:

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Some links

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Two different approaches: Bireme Capital sticks to Value Investing whereas Forager has joined the SPAC party

A great three part holistic series from Prof. Damodaran on Value Investing: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3

Interesting deep dive into the often overlooked Geothermal Energy 

Morningstar on some lasting changes in consumer behavior from the pandemic

In-depth look into US vs. Google from Stratechery

An interesting portrait of Cliff Asness and his blog from UndervaluedShares

Crazy times: How Just mentioning Green Hydrogen by Management can push any (LNG) stock into the stratosphere 

Some links

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Fantastic deep dive into the future of music / audio from Mathew Ball

“Covid-19 hit big oil companies like an Asteroid” (Bloomberg)

Has Tesco finally become a potentially interesting investment ?

Very good overview of the German Fintech scene from Finanz-szene.de

Super interesting longform interview with Daniel Ek, founder and CEO of Spotify

A short look at Romanian stock Fondul Proprietatea S.A.

Stratechery with its trademark deep insight into DIsney

“Trading Corner” Part 1 – The rules, German Basket Cleansing & neW Trade: Play Magnus Group (ISIN NO0010890726)

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!!

Follow up

A big thank you top all readers who either commented on my open question  if and how to include “Trading positions” into the blog. Overall I concluded that I can allow myself the luxury of a small allocation to “trades” as long as I do it consistently and with good risk management. One of the luxuries of a private investor is indeed that one can allow oneself some fun without needing to explain it to third parties and having fun is important to stay motivated.

Following some additional deliberations, my approach (for the time being) will be the following:

  • I will allow myself up to max 10% and up to max 7 trading positions at any given time going forward
  • In order to track them I will write short summaries with a clear “game plan” for the position
  • Close ot in case of a pre defined loss is a must
  • The maximum time allowed will be set at 12 months and either they go out or get upgraded to my other “buckets” in order to avoid a lot of “Trade goes wrong and becomes investment” positions
  • However, the “German Basket” will be “sacrificed”, as this honestly is already some kind of “trading portfolio”

German Basket “cleansing”:

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Some links

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A long term reader has started an interesting blog called smallcapseurope.com. Check it out !

Another super interesting new blog with a focus on valuation techniques is Lawbitrage & The Art of Company Valuation. Highly recommended !!!

Very smart article why most institutional investors have very short time horizons

Undervaluedjapan with a nice write up on a super cheap Japanese steel company

Great deep dive on the demise of footnoted.com and the fight with a super secretive quant hedge fund

How Charles Schwab transformed itself into a finance giant

The UK value investor with a great take on the “Covid-19 lottery” within his portfolio

 

Performance review 9m 2020 – Comment “Covid 19 Portfolio Lottery & the allure of speculation”

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In the first 9 months of 2020, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +3,7% (including dividends, no taxes) against a loss of -6.9% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Since inception (01.01.2011), this translates into +201 % vs. 98%  for the Benchmark.

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 9M 2020:

Partners Fund TGV: +6,3%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -4,1%
Squad European Convictions +5,99%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -19,82% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -6,1%
Evermore Global Value  –18.37%(USD)
Greiff Special Situation -3.69%
Squad Aguja Special Situation 12.45%
Paladin One 15.94%

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