Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Performance Review 2011-2020 – Lessons learned, Outlook 2030

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After the 2020 Performance review a few days ago, this time a more “in depth” look into the 10 year performance of the portfolio. For the record: The Performance page of the blog is now fully updated 😉

As this has become a very long post, these are the main sections:

  1. Numbers & Stats for the Portfolio (plus Benchmark discussion)
  2. Flop 15 & Top 15 positions
  3. 2011-2020 Macro events
  4. Style /Process /System
  5. Main lessons learned
  6. Outlook 2021-2030

1. Numbers & Statistics

The hard numbers: Over the 10 years from 12/31/2010 to 12/31/2020, the portfolio gained +270,3% against +122,7% against the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50(25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all performance indices including Dividends).. In CAGR numbers this translates into 14,0% p.a. for the portfolio vs. 8,3% p.a. for the Benchmark. As a graph this looks as follows:

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Performance review 2020 – “Freak Accident”

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As this is the 10 year mark of the portfolio, there will be a two part performance review. This is part 1 for 2020, part 2 for the 10 year period will follow in short time.

In 2020, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +27.6% (including dividends, no taxes) against +4,5% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50(25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all performance indices including Dividends).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in 2020:

Partners Fund TGV: +28,2% (15.12.) 
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +9.54% (30.12.)
Squad European Convictions (30.12.) +20,4%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos (30.12.) -10.9% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen (30.12.) +0.83%
Evermore Global Value (30.12.) -7,0% (USD)
Greiff Special Situation (30.12.) +0.2%
Squad Aguja Special Situation (30.12.) +34,8%
Paladin One (30.12.) +30,1%

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Some links

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Fred Wilson with some great thoughts on what happened in 2020 and what he thinks will happen in 2021

Swen Lorenz on potential UK take over targets

Good article on Claude Shannon, the “father of information theory”

Long Read: How Substack tries to become the platform for Email Newsletters

A few interesting 2021 predictions from Yetanothervalueblog

More 2021 predictions from Scott Galloway

It is 2020 year end review time for many fellow stock picker blogs such as:

Alpha Vulture blog 2020 performance
Valueinvesting France (French)
Bull, Bear & Value
Global Stock Picking
Preis und Wert Aktienblog (German)
Maynard Peyton
Clark Street Value
searching 4 value

Panic Journal Season 2 – Year End edition: “This time was different”

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While I am writing this, the first vaccine shots have been being provided in Germany already yesterday. Despite a relatively strict lock down including a curfew from 9pm in my home town Munich, in general the mood seems to a certain extent upbeat compared to a few weeks/months ago. Time to do a “2020 Covid-19 recap” with another installment of the “Panic Journal”. 

Recap: This time was different

At first, like many “Westerners”, I thought that Covid-19 was not our problem. Like SARS in 2002/2003, MERS in 2012, Ebola 2014-2016, Zika 2015 or the Avian Influenza , this again looked like a “Third World problem”, where the Third World includes China. The first documented cases in Germany at car supplier Webasto seemed to have confirmed this: The infected persons were identified quickly, isolated and all recovered pretty fast. Webasto actually issued a press release in early March that all infected employees were healthy and eager to go  back to work. So “Business as usual” with this “Exotic virus scare”.

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Some links

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Eddie Elfenbein with his 2021 Buy list consisting of 25 US large caps stocks

Scotland is now at 90% renewable electricity

Bill Gates with a great update & overview on Covid-19 vaccines and treatments and what to expect in 2021

Very interesting deep look into the value of music back catalogues (FT)

A good reminder: Why waiting for a crash to get into stocks never works

Forager likes troubled UK retailer Bohoo

More on the massive Russian hack that was detected only when they hacked a Cybersecurity company

 

My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021

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Following an annual tradition once a year I’ll try to review my current portfolio by writing short summaries/update for each individual position. This year, only 11 of the 20 companies from last year are still in the portfolio and I have 16 new positions which is a (Covid-19 driven) record in turnover. 6 of the 27 shares are part of a “basket trade” on a recovery in tourism.

The summaries of the previous years can be found here:

My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

1. TFF Group (7,2%)

tff1
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Some links

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An interesting but very scary story on the massive Russian hack that has been detected only recently

Ben Evans on what is next after the smart phone

9 lessons from Cycling (around the world) applied to investing

FTAlphaville on AIM listed company ThinkSmart

Deep thoughts on the future of the Container (ship) industry

Great paper on the recent SPAC mania and on who is holding the bag at the end

Softbank backed Compass is rolling up the US real estate brokerage industry 

FEMSA – Is “the most interesting company in MExico” Interesting enough ?

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Background:

Whenever I hear a new name from different quality sources I am highly motivated to look at a stock even if it is outside my usual area of competence. FEMSA is such an example. I have seen FEMSA already in two funds of the “TGV Langfrist” family, it is the second largest position at Profitlich/Schmidlin and finally Swen Lorenz featured FEMSA in his latest weekly dispatch.

He mentions another (very good) FEMSA write-up which calls FEMSA “The most interesting company of Mexico” which is a very detailed write-up and highly recommended.

I try to summarize FEMSA in two bullet points:

  • FEMSA is a family owned conglomerate, consisting of an (economic) 15% stake in Heineken, a 47% stake in Coca Cola FEMSA (fully consolidated due to majority in votes) and an operating business consisting mostly of Mexican convenience stores called OXXO plus some other LatAm assets that is named the “Commercio” segment
  • Especially OXXO is a growing, high ROCE business which justifies a significant valuation multiple
  • It is expected that FEMSA monetizes its Heineken stake soon plus the big story is, that based on an existing OXXO prepaid debit card there is the option for OXXO to become the “Super App” of Mexico like WeChat/Tencent in China or Grab and GoJek in SE Asia

The stock chart of the ADR looks unimpressive, basically flat over the last 8 years in EUR terms after a huge rebound from the GFC:

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10 Years of Value & Opportunity – 10 Highlights, 10 LESSONS & 10 Books

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Again, time flies. Exactly 10 (!!) years ago on December 15th, 2010, I started this blog. 

FJ-10-anniversary-logo-cropped-236x179

As every year a very special “Thank You” goes  to all readers, especially those who actively contribute either by comments or mails. I need to keep on mentioning that the interaction with readers is really driving the motivation to continue the blog in this format.

In this post I will reflect mostly on writing the blog, highlights and lessons over the last 10 years plus my 10 all time favorite book reviews. There will be a 10 Year investment/performance review in the beginning of January 2021. 

Some numbers: 

10 year stat        
Year Visits % Germany Posts Comments
2011 93,811 na 411 694
2012 178,485 49.82% 266 1,368
2013 325,240 43.14% 168 1,243
2014 430,794 32.26% 121 1,068
2015 459,992 25.94% 110 1,105
2016 521,197 28.52% 113 1,645
2017 635,741 28.79% 114 1,580
2018 452,267 28.57% 92 784
2019 325,169 31.56% 84 563
2020 YTD 483,824 39.03% 107 1,211
         
Total 3,906,520   1,586 11,261

All in all, I managed to post ~1600 posts over these 10 years which created close to 4 mn visits. The drop of visits (and comments)  in 2018 & 2019 was clearly the result of posting less due to a lack of time from my side.

So why I am still doing this ?

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Some links

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Incredible story how 7 UK oil traders made 660 mn USD when the oil price went negative in April

Investment outlook from Broyhill Asset Management on the “return of Value”

Fred Liu (Hayden Capital) is up 200% this year and likes Afterpay from Australia

Fascinating deep dive into the API economy (Twilio)

Investment advice from 100 years ago (Spoiler: Still highly relevant)

Swen Lorenz from Undervalued Shares likes FEMSA

December update on mostly US spin-off situations

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