Fielmann Group – Will “Junior” be able to execute the 5 year plan once again ?
DISCLAIMER: This is not Investment Advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!
Soundtrack:
There were quite a few songs that fit the topic, but in the end I really like Disco so ”Sexy Eyes” from Dr. Hook is my favorite;
Editorial Notes on AI use:
I do use AI tools (Gemini, Claude, NotebookLM) extensively during the research but I write everything “by hand”. In some cases, I will however copy & paste a summary or result table from a query after checking that the content is plausible. But I will always explicitly mention if I do this explicitly.
Management Summary:
Fielmann Group, the majority family owned German optical retailer has seen a significant multiple compression over the past 10 years despite a very decent operational performance since the Covid lows.
Based on a credible 5 year plan laid out in 2025, Fielmann is attractively priced and if they continue to execute under the leadership of the second generation family CEO, the stock offers significant potential over the next 4-5 years.
For this high margin, high return on capital business with a rock solid balance sheet and strong cashflow generation, the current valuation of ~15 NTM P/E and ~3,3% dividend yield looks attractive.
And here is the full write-up:
value and opportunity 
Thanks for the insightful comment.
Hi MMI, thanks for the very nice write-up. Two comments: First, I think those youth myopia predictions are a little disputed and I would not count on it as a major growth driver. Fielmann also makes much higher margins on progressive lenses than on anything else. Therefore, I would see the main structural driver as an aging population, which is continuing to lead to a more favorable product mix (more progressive lenses) already since many years. As a risk on growth, I would mention the already saturated German market. Especially in economically difficult times, people stick to their old glasses longer (whereas in good times, they may purchase new glasses also for fashion reasons).
Second, I think it is useful to mention the unique business strategy that Fielmann has developed for the US. Essentially, they want to negotiate with insurances directly to take costs out of the system. Also, they want to be able to make the eye test directly in store, which is currently not the US approach (you need to see a doctor to get reimbursed). Establishing this business model requires a fundamental change to how insurers in the US reimburse prescription glasses. If they manage to get over the institutional hurdles and establish a “Fielmann-style” business model in the U.S., this would be a huge competitive advantage relative to independent stores and could be an enormous growth driver. However, at this point this is work in progress. If they were to fail with that endeavor, their main USP would be gone. In the latter case, profitable growth in the US would be far more difficult because then they would just be one more guy without meaningful differentiation. So I think success of establishing the “Fielmann-way” of prescribing glasses in the US is critical. The strategy is complex but seems also really thought through. There are investor presentations on the US strategy on the webpage which go into quite some detail on this (and it is also discussed in earlier earnings calls, especially around the time of the US acquisitions).
I own the stock and think the US expansion could be a real game changer on top of a super-solid and cash-generative European business. But I will follow closely how much progress they make with changing the logistics of purchases in their stores to achieve a competitive advantage over rivals. If this should work, I would imagine they will rapidly grow, not least because this would give a good business case for further acquisitions to cover larger geographies in the midwest.
https://www.eqs-news.com/de/news/ad-hoc/fielmann-group-ag-aktualisiert-prognose-fuer-das-geschaeftsjahr-2026-angesichts-anhaltender-konsumzurueckhaltung-in-deutschland/b0304235-25a1-48b0-a8e0-ba29344e9537_de
Thanks. Timing was really bad on this one.