Some links 24/2025

The Brooklyn Investor with an long all-round post and another one on Bubbles

The “Made in Japan” Substack with a nice guide to get started in the Japanese stock market

A great summary from the Latticework 2025 conference with various “Value Investing Legends”

The French Focus Investing Substack with a nice deep dive into Safran

The current LLM’s models do not think highly of Private Equity as an Asset Class

A nice and easy CEO checklist from the Dutch Investors Substack

Thomas Puyo on why Argentina is not doing much better economically

Some links 23/2025

Finally, 5X leveraged single Stock ETFs are available

The maybe most consistent financial blog out there, Abnormal Returns, celebrated it’s 20th Birthday this week.

Another OG, 20 Year Blogger, Eddie Elfenbein, has been on the Meb Faber Podcast

Good Morningstar article on “Performance Shenanigans” of Private Equity Secondary Funds

Liquid Air Energy storage is a very interesting concept

For some strange reason, horizontal paintings trade at a (significant) discount to vertical ones

Govro from Wintergems dives even deeper into Alcohol Stocks 

Was this the “Karpathy Moment” for the AI Industry ?

Who is Andrej Karpathy ? Born in Slovakia and despite only 38 years young/old, he is already an AI “Veteran” having initially studied under AI Godfather Geoff Hinton in Canada, did internships at Google Brain and DeepMind, Co-founded OpenAI, was leading AI at Tesla, went back to OpenAi and now is focusing on teaching AI to everyone who would listen.

Since I discovered his Youtube educational Videos, I am following him because when he speaks about something, there is always a lot to learn. 

Yesterday, he did a 2 hour interview with maybe the best current “AI Podcaster” Dwarkesh Patel. Those two hours are quite dense and I had to use Gemini in parallel to understand some of the stuff, but at least on my Twitter timeline, it raised quite a “storm in the teacup” among AI “experts.

Here are some of his main talking points (as far as I understood them):

Read more

Performance review Q3 2025 – Comment “Keep waiting for that European Economic rebound”

In the first 9 months of 2025, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +6,6% (including dividends, no taxes) against a gain of +16,7% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog.

Performance review:

After two relatively good monhts in June and July, August and Septmeber once again were underperforming months and I am now 100% sure that this will be the third underperforming year in a row.

Again, some stocks did really badly (Fuchs, STEF, AOC Fund) whereas the winners were not winning enough to match benchmark performance.

As mentioned before, the good thing is that I don’t have to care about unhappy external investors and/or paying subscribers. As I have indicated in the last review, I have been adjusting my approach and improving my investment “infrastructure” but it would be foolish to expect a short term rebound in relative performance in the current market environment. For next year, I am currently considerung to switch to 6M Performance reporting.

Read more

Some links 22/2025

Govro from WIntergems with a deep dive into Pernod Ricard’s brands

Interesting writeup on Wise Plc from Ennismore (h/t Govro)

The East72 Synasty Trust Quarterly letter is always worth reading (Exor, Swatch, Bolore, Man United)

The Flyover Stocks blog with a great post on why Management Integrity is so important

Interesting article on some high end Cooperage (Barrel making) operations and their issues

A very detailed deep dive on the worrying Capex Mania in AI/LLM land

John Hempton on “Crypto Bucket Shops”

Private Equity (Mini) Series 6: Private Equity for the masses – Y2K edition

Previous Episodes of the Private Equity (Mini) Series:

Private Equity Mini Series (1): My IRR is not your Performance
Private Equity Mini series (2) – What kind of “Alpha” can you expect from Private Equity as a Retail Investor compared to public stocks ?
Private Equity Mini Series (3): Listed Private Asset Managers (KKR, Apollo & Co)
Private Equity Mini series (4) : “Investing like a “billionaire” for retail investors in the UK stock market via PE Trusts
Private Equity Mini Series (5): Trade Republic offers Private Equity for the masses (ELTIFs) -“Nice try, but hell no”

Time Machine: Y2K

Some of the older readers of my blog might have active memories about the year 2000. There was the so-called “2YK Scare” in the late 1990ies, the fear that computer systems (and planes) would crash when the year 2000 would start. Of course it didn’t happen, the Dot.com bubble got pumped up once more and the rest is history.

Another event that got less attention was the that back in the year 2000, the now long gone Dresdner Bank issued a Certificate (which is a popular structure in Germany to give retail investors exposure to anything) that was actually a bond linked to the long term returns of an underlying Private Equity Portfolio managed by Swiss PE manager Partners Group. The very same Partners Group that now has teamed up with Deutsche Bank to run an ELTIF.

Read more

Some links 21/2025

Fantastic profile of Thomas Peterffy, the legendary founder of Interactive Brokers

Nice write-up on UK stock Johnson Matthey from the Modern Investing Substack

The Oracle of Oslo Substack on “sum-of-parts” play F.I.L.A. Sp

Maynard Payton with a “Super Deep Dive” on FW Thorpe

A great summary of Andrej Kaparty’s LLM talk (Twitter/X link)

Bain’s 2025 Tech report is an interesting read
A critical look into the “Quantum Bubble 2.0” from the recommended Shorts & Squeezes Corner Substack

The Anatomy of a 100 Bagger – How a Canadian Investor managed to hold Google for 21 years

A few weeks ago, fellow blogger Govro from the Wintergems Substack casually mentioned on Twitter/X that he has now realised his first 100 bagger with Google/Alphabet.

I found this fascinating for several reasons. First, he is the only guy I know who has been holding Google/Alphabet for 20 years. Secondly, I had often pondered investing into Google/Alphabet but always found it too expensive. And thirdly, I never managed to hold a well performing stock for so long.

In addition, I also think that there are a lot of private investors out there, who are not famous, but from which one can learn maybe more than from “Super Stars” like Warren Buffett or Bill Ackman.

Therefore I was highly interested to learn better how he managed to do so and maybe this is kind of interesting for other investors as well.  

I sent him a list of questions and he answered them in detail. Below you’ll find the Q&A. The first questions are about his general investment approach, the second half on the Google position.

In any case, I highly recommend to follow his Substack (it’s 100% free).

My summary and learnings follows:

  1. Govro is an experienced, self-taught investor who identified Google early as a stock that was showing great growth at a reasonable valuation.
  2. He invested also in not so great tech stocks like Ebay and Yahoo, but managed to get out of them and keep the compounder
  3. As a “quality growth”  investor, he seems to be able to invest based on a pretty long time horizon (3-5 years at any time).
  4. His approach of diversifying between Fast and Slow compounders is quite unique. The slow compounders provide some stability and allow him to create liquidity in general market drawdowns/panics in order to increase his best performing positions
  5. He does deep research and concentrates on certain industries only, but on a global level
  6. He is able to hold a quite concentrated portfolio, allowing a single position to go up to 20% of the portfolio, or in the case of GOOG even 33%.
  7. His deep research and conviction also allow him to double down in a general market panic like 2008
  8. Besides Google, he owns another stock that is already up 50x. So Google/alphabet might not be just a “one hit wonder” for him

Compared to my approach, I think the main difference is clearly the strong focus on mid term growth, allowing for higher starting PE’s and the nerves to let a position run to 20% (or more) of the portfolio.

So far, I only “copied” two stocks from his portfolio, Bombardier and Logistec, which were great successes. I will clearly pay very high attention to what he is doing in the future. 

Here is the detailed Q&A with Govro:

Some links 20/2025

Interesting deep dive into the London Stock Exchange Group and its current problems

Already a few weeks ago, Rob Vinall published a very detailed 6M letter including a post mortem of Ryman

OpenAI has released interesting usage data for ChatGPT

The Valuelytica Substack (for some reason) backtested my own old BOSS Score method

Streaming services are jacking up prices on an ongoing basis without delivering more value 

Again, in 2025, Momentum investing is the way to gain Alpha (for the time being)

Secret Sauce Investing Substack with a deep dive into Novo Nordisk

Private Equity Mini Series (5): Trade Republic offers Private Equity for the masses (ELTIFs) -“Nice try, but hell no” 

Previous episodes in this series:

Private Equity Mini Series (1): My IRR is not your Performance
Private Equity Mini series (2) – What kind of “Alpha” can you expect from Private Equity as a Retail Investor compared to public stocks ?
Private Equity Mini Series (3): Listed Private Asset Managers (KKR, Apollo & Co)
Private Equity Mini series (4) : “Investing like a “billionaire” for retail investors in the UK stock market via PE Trusts

Management summary:

In this post of the “Private Equity Mini series”, I look a little bit deeper into a Retail Private Equity offering (ELTIF) that has been distributed to 10 mn clients of German Neo Broker Trade Republic since last week (including myself).

There were a lot of articles in the German press trying to explain the product and the associated fees, which in my opinion were mostly wrong. Not surprisingly, as it is extremely difficult to find out what these vehicles actually charge in fees and costs. I’ll therefore concentrate only on the fees and expected returns.

As a spoiler, I do not think that the return expectations of 12-15% p.a. net after fees and costs are anywhere close to reality. I would go as far and even call this “miss selling” as these levels would be “best case” outcomes in my opinion.

Fees and cost based on my estimates will be between 4-7% p.a. (for the deal that I analysed) depending on the performance of the underlying assets and overall returns are dragged further down by the required cash allocation.

I also think that the regulator should here require a full and fair disclosure of Total Expense ratios (including all fees and costs) for different gross return scenarios. For a normal investor, it is close to impossible to gain this information, even for a professional it is hard to estimate based on the provided documentation.

Due to the effort of analyzing the fee structure, I did not have the motivation to look into issues like liquidity windows, early redemption panalties etc. as it just makes things worse for the retail investor.

In the case of the analyzed “Single Manager” EQT Nexus product, the whole purpose of giving private investors access to Private Equity is an actual waste of time, as investors can easily get a very similar exposure with a much better return/risk profile simply by investing into the underlying share of EQT.

In any case, a low cost, diversified Equity ETF will most likely outperform these retail Private Equity structures significantly in the mid- to long term. Although I have analysed only one fee structure, I do think that the main take-aways are applicable to most similar “Semi liquid” structures targeted towards retail investors.

Here is the “full monty” on 18 pages if you are interested in the details.

I have a link for the fee model in the pdf but you can also send me an Email/message if you like to receive it.

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