Tag Archives: ai

“Space is the place” – SpaceX IPO, OHB SE and a Rocket Internet update

DISCLAIMER: This is not Investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

A lot has happened since I published my Rocket Internet write-up from the end of January. Just as a refresher: I found Rocket Internet interesting, despite some Governance issues as the “sum of the part” value was significantly higher than the share price back then and that it offered some relevant &  discounted exposure to Elon’s SpaceX IPO.

But before we start, I would recommend to click on the following link and get David Bowie’s Space Oddity as a nice background sound for reading this post:

David Bowie – Space Oddity (Official Video)

As I write, SpaceX has just released its S-1 filing and plans to go public on June 10th. This is what I wrote back then:

My time horizon for this would be either the (Rocket) AGM or the actual SpaceX IPO. On Polymarket, the odds are 60% for an IPO before end of Q3 2026

Compared with two other “SpaceX Proxies” that I mentioned, EchoStar & Alphabet, Rocket actually did quite OK if we look at the chart:

The real Space Superstar: OHB SE

However, the real “Performance Rocket” would have been another German stock called OHB:

OHB, a German/Bremen based Satellite manufacturer went parabolic despite having a really small free float after KKR acquired a significant portion of the minority free float at 44 EUR in 2023. Initially they wanted to delist but then kept the listing.

The main reason for this increase seems to be that OHB is included in a very popular ETF called Tema Space Innovators ETF with the great Ticker NASA.

This ETF is one of the fastest growing ETFs ever and currently has a 5% allocation in OHB. At around 1,4 bn AUM, that’s around 60 mn EUR in OHB. As most of the OHB shares are held by the founding Fuchs family and KKR (together ~94%) and some specialized “Squeeze out” players, there seems to be a pretty hard squeeze on the few remaining shares.

I also guess that you cannot short OHB shares. Operationally, OHB has been doing okayish, but nothing that would justify a 130x P/E.

In any case, this is a monster deal for KKR who (obviously) plan to exit while its “hot”. I am pretty sure that after that exit, OHB will be one of those “Christmas Tree” charts that we know from the Covid times.

Back to SpaceX

Elon seems to target a valuation of 1,75 tn USD, that would be the upper range of what I assumed in my January sum-of-the part valuation. However, “old” SpaceX shareholders from the beginning of the year have been diluted by ~20% after the “merger” of SpaceX with XAi, so we have to take this into account.

I am sure that Matt Levine will write and say much smarter things than I do about the SpaceX IPO, so here are just some observations:

  1. The S1 prospectus contains some really nice pictures of rockets
  2. There are already a lot of write-ups & observations about several aspects of SpaceX. A pretty good thread can be found for instance on Bluesky.
  3. Overall, SpaceX is clearly much more resembling a giant “Elon Venture Fund” than a normal company. I think I read this in one of Matt Levine’s newsletters about Tesla. Elon has assembled a relatively loosely connected group of companies (XA, Twitter, SpaceX, Starlink, maybe Cursor) with which he can more or less credibly jump on any new hype that will come his way.

    Like the VC giants Sequoia or A16Z, he has two talents: To raise funding and to attract (a certain type) of tech people with which he can at least create the appearance of riding the next big thing.

    If Ai hits a brick wall, Elon finds something else like maybe Quantum computing or he will merge Neuralink into SpaceX or become the Number 1 in obesity pills.

    His hardcore fans are not looking for earnings but to ride the next hype
  4. A lot has been already said about the “total Addressable Market” figures from the deck which equal the US GDP.

    The great thing about both, the socalled “Space economy” and also AI is, that both at the moment seem to have indefinite TAMs. Mathematically, even a small slice of something indefinite is worth an indefinite amount of money.

    So that’s clearly much better than something like earth bound EVs where there is a clear ceiling or humanoid robots that just don’t work and where the Chinese are obviously much better.

    I am pretty sure, Cathy Wood or someone similar will come up with an “analysis” that SpaceX is worth 100X from wherever it is trading.
  5. A nice contrarian take can be found at the “Wertegang” Substack with the nice title : SpaceX is a Zero. Here, my friend Dirk argues that the SciFi bestseller “The three body problem” clearly shows that reaching to the stars is pretty risky from a cosmic perspective (Dark Forrest theory). But I am pretty sure that if needed, Elon will also promise to manufacture Pocket Universes in one of his Gigafactories.
  6. What I am really curious about is, if Elon manages to really hype two companies, Tesla and SpaceX at the same time. Also, how will the typical “Elon retail hardcore supporter” react ? If he/she is a real Elon fan, he/she will have all of their money already in Tesla (plus maybe some more). But of course, they want to have SpaceX exposure, too. So will they sell their Tesla shares to get a 50/50 allocation ? I think this will be interesting to observe.

Anyway, the SpaceX IPO is great financial entertainment and might only be topped by an OpenAI IPO in autumn.

Rocket Internet Update

In the meantime, Rocket Internet has “published” its 2025 annual report. Interestingly they did revaulue their participations upwards to a certain extent. After a loss of -550 mn EUR in 2024, they now show a profit of 750 mn EUR. It seems that the letter from Scherzer AG to the auditors did have some effects.

If I would be in the Microcap Stock promotion game, I would maybe post something like: “Hidden Perfromance Rocket trading below NAV at 3x P/E ratio”, but economically the shown profit is pretty meaningless.

On the negative side, there will be no large cash distribution and Rocket seems to intend to make the company even less transparent going forward.

In any case, I updated my valuation sheet, including some “bug fixes”. Again, this is a quick and dirty exercise and definitely not investment advice !!!

Here is the new sheet:

The main changes that I made were some haircuts on Software companies andTraveloka and adjusting Kalshi and SpaceX for the most recent values. For SpaceX I incorporatedthe 20% dilution from XAi and a new range of 1750 to 2000 mn USD as valuation. For Kalshi I used the 22 bn valuation and implying a further dilution of 10% from the YE 2025 number.

This is a quick comparison between my old and the new exercise:

We can see that the Upside NAV is more or less the same at 53 EUR per share vs. 54,5EUR despite the “haircuts” applied to Software, but the downside valuation is singinifcantly higher, mainly because of the expected valuation of SpaceX at theIPO and the recent Kalshi round which was only a rumour in January.

The upside to the NAV is of course lower, as the shares gained ~+30% since the write-up.

As mentioned in the beginning, I will keep the shares until the IPO hoping for some more irrational exuberance around the SpaceX IPO. Unless I’ll change my mind earlier 😉

Some links 12/2026

Semaglutide Generics (Wegovy, Ozempic) are now available in India at a fraction of the cost of the original

A great article on what makes companies really “durable”

An interesting deep dive into Disney’s theme park business

Very timely: Joachim Klement’s Football Worldcup prediction for 2026 with a very surprising favorite

Interesting viewpoint on why friction can be good in society and AI removing friction is maybe dangerous

The Mr. Market Miscalculates Substack looks at Pomegranate Investment AB, a Swedish OTC stock that invests into Iranian businesses

VC legend Bill Gurley clearly explains why Share based compensation is a real expense

Visibility as a Creator/Writer on LLMs – A test and some thoughts

Visibility on LLMs

Management summary:

This post does not offer any actionable investment content. Rather I wanted to find out if my blog is visible on the various LLMs and if I want to be visible. I would be very interested in how fellow “creators” think about this and how they approach this topic.

Visibility of Value and Opportunity on different LLMs

Just out of interest, I asked several LLMs about the 5 best Investment blogs for European stocks. The results were quite interesting.

Google Gemini for instance distinguishes significantly in which language one asks and which model you use. A German language prompt gives a very different answer (mostly German language Blogs) than an English prompt and “fast” mode gives very different results from “thinking” mode.

Here are the 5 top blogs in Fast mode for the German prompt: (“Welches sind die 5 besten Investment Blogs für Europäische Aktien, insbes. Nebenwerte ? “):

And here the results for the same prompt in “thinking Modus”:

There is some overlap and I am on both of the lists, which is great, but still interesting.

A few days earlier I tried a slightly different prompt (“Nenne mir bitte die 5 besten Investment Blogs die sich mit Europäischen Aktien beschäftigen. “)

And I got very different results:

What is also interesting is that Gemini doesn’t look for Substacks when I ask for blogs. Asking specifically for Substacks, gives once again different top 5 for the fast and thinking model, but the V&O Substack does not appear when asking for Substacks.

When I ask Gemini in English for blogs, I get the following result for “fast” mode:

In Thinking mode, this is the output:

So I show up in both, but the other 4 are different.

Overall it is quite interesting that asking in German language automatically selects mostly German blogs and how much the results differ from fast to thinking mode.

Of course, different LLMs give different answers. The very same German prompt from above  gives this result overview in ChatGPT:

The English prompt gives the following result:

ChatGPT interestingly does not care too much in which language you ask, the overlap is higher than for Gemini. But it has remembered my 10 factor Scoring model and without asking has somehow mixed that into the decision.

Claude interestingly doesn’t seem to know my blog at all. I have to say I am disappointed 😉

The LLMs know Value and Opportunity

So after putting out content for 15 years, Gemini and ChatGPT LLMs clearly know about my blog, but it is really interesting how differently they answer to the very same questions. Also that language plays such a role for the results is kind of interesting for me.

Interestingly, if I use the normal Google search, my blog is not visible at all, at least not on the first 10 pages, irrespective of what kind of searches I do. This mirrors  a little bit the traffic statistics form my WordPress overview where Google as a source for traffic more or les disappeared a few years ago. Only when I ask for a certain analysis, for instance Eurokai specifically on the Value & Opportunity blog, I see my blog in the results. Otherwise no chance.

I have to admit that I have also become quite lazy to add a lot of Keywords etc but in general, Google search as such seems not to be “my friend” anymore. Some years ago, especially the more general articles received significant traffic, even years after I wrote them, but that has gone totally away.

How to optimize for LLM visibility  ?

I feel very lucky that I don’t have to optimize for traffic, otherwise I could imagine that trying to optimize LLMs is not so easy. I have briefly researched the topic and it seems that for now, LLMs seem to emphasize a longer track record and credibility.

One of the nice things is that one can ask the LLm to explain. Google Gemini’s answer is quite flattering I have to admit:

If I wanted to make more advertising for my work, I would basically copy& paste that answer.

Of course, I also wanted to know why I don’t appear on Claude’s list. This is what Claude tells me:

Typically for an LLM, it apologizes. What I find interesting is that Claude indeed seems to start looking in high traffic locations and then doesn’t go much further.

Do you actually want to be visible to LLMs ?

One question one has to ask is of course as a writer & creator: Do you want to be (fully) visible to LLMs or not ?

Despite my visibility on Gemini and ChatGPT, the LLMs do not refer a lot of traffic back to the site. I can see Gemini with a little traffic and ChatGPT with no referrals at all. So they know about the blog, but they don’t refer a lot of people to the blog. Maybe the answers are already good enough if my content gets shown. Outside my Email list, most traffic still comes from Google search and TwiX.

If you want to monetize your content directly, it is clearly not good when LLMs can read your stuff and summarize it perfectly. I was for instance quite astonished when a TwiX user asked Grok to summarize my Biontech post in TwiX and Grok did so with a pretty decent summary.

On the other hand it seems that at least for Gemini and ChatGPT, you need to show them your content in order to get recognized. I guess a good compromise could be to show some of the content so that the AI can learn about what one writes but then keep newer stuff behind a paywall or so.

Another strategy would be, not to share anything on the web in order to protect one’s “intellectual property”. As for now, the LLMs don’t give a lot of traffic back, so why should you be visible at all ?

In my case, I am lucky that (so far) I can monetize my content very indirectly.

For me, the main payoff comes through constructive feedback and, every now and then a nice email from a reader or even better, some personal contact and someone says “I read your blogs for x years and really like it”.

My other goal is also“make the world a little bit of a better place” by maybe teaching some people how to “invest” instead of just “gambling” blindly and help them to hopefully better secure their financial future. For this goal, getting my content “indirectly” distributed through LLMs is clearly helpful.

If someone asks if xyz-Shitco is a good investment and somehow in Gemini’s neural net it identifies a  “red flag” that it has maybe learned through my posts, this could be a very powerful “amplifier”. But this is clearly hard to measure.

Summary:

For now, I am quite flattered, that 2 out of 3 LLMs find my content good enough to put me into the Top 5 European Small Cap blogs. That is clearly niceclearly a nice feedback. 

Most of all, I feel very lucky that I don’t have to directly monetize my content. I think this will be less straightforwardstraight forward than in the “search machine age”. There will be some solutions for sure but I guess “cause and effect” might be less linear than in the old times.

I would be very interested in how fellow “creators” think about this and how they approach this topic.

Some thoughts on Vibe Coding, SaaS vs AI (10 Moats) and Guidewire Software

Executive Summary:

This post does not contain any actionable investment advice but rather some personal ramblings on Vibe coding and the attempt to analyze a specific Software company (Guidewire) according to a Template of 10 Moats for Software companies and their vulnerability to the AI threat.

Introduction:

My track record as a Software investor is to put it mildly, very poor. My best Software Investment so far is Chapters Group which I bought as a net-net before it even became a VMS Serial Acquirer. My blog and portfolio archive also tell me that I sold Microsoft in 2011 at ~25$ per share with a 4% gain because I thought that the Office products had no future. So please take everything I say about Software with a grain of salt or even better, just ignore it.

I do have a background in Software development. Although I would not call it Software development but “Code butchering”. It started as a teenager on a C64 with Basic and Assembler and ended in the late 1990s with Cobol/PLSQL working for a large US Consulting Company (yes, I was young and needed the money). Knowing the speed of financial institutions, I would not be surprised if some of my Spaghetti code would still be running somewhere….

Why am I saying this ? Because of course, Software stocks have been doing quite poorly over the past weeks/months. In addition, I also had the opportunity to play around with Claude Code first hand. 

Innoscripta SE: 60% EBIT margins & rapid growth but why did the 2025 IPO flop ?

Management summary: 

Innoscripta, a young German “SaaS company” which IPOed in 2025 came to my attention because it is extremely profitable (EBIT margin 60%) and growing like crazy (10x in sales since 2020). However, because of the unique revenue model (success fee instead of software fees) and a rapid decrease in quarterly growth in 2025, I am currently not investing, although the stock is not super expensive at 21x trailing P/E. But I will keep a close watch. 

The 2025 IPO 

Innoscripta was one of the few “official” IPOs in Germany in 2025. If we look at the share price, it was not a very successful one: 

Read more

Random ramblings on AI

You didn’t ask for it but you get it nevertheless: Some random thoughts on various aspects of Artificial Intelligence. Spoiler: No actionable insights (I think).

Gemini 3.0. vs. Nvidia

Google Gemini 3.0 seems to be a really good model. I am currently using it with my prompts and it seems a little bit better but not that much.  NotebookLM seems to have improved a lot.

However, according to various sources, the model was trained and runs exclusively on Google TPU chips. The Nvidia Bulls keep saying that Nvidia has such a large advantage including their software, that those ultrafat margins will persist for many years as there is no alternative. I am not so sure about this. 

This is the EBIT margin development of NVIDIA since 2002:

Read more

Some thoughts on DeepSeek- The Black Swan for MAG7 or something else ?

For various reasons, I was able to spend much more time on this topic since Sunday than I would usually have. On Sunday morning, the topic somehow picked my interested and I have been trying to understand as a Non-Expert what is going on here.

For full disclosure: I have no positions in any of the MAG7 stocks, but that might make me equally biased than someone who has mortgaged his family home to invest in NVDIA.

On Sunday Morning, I initially used mostly Twitter, but during the day this was overflooded with MAGA Crap. Twitter is still a good place at an early stage for “virally developing situations”, bit it gets washed with (AI written) turd pretty quickly.

The DeepSeek topic is interesting on many dimensions. Here are some facts (taken from Wikipedia, but confirmed by other sources):

Read more