Tag Archives: Novo Nordisk

Novo Nordisk – 9 years later

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Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVISE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

9 years, three encounters

One of the great aspects of writing an online blog for a long time is that I can look back and find something I have written a long time ago which I would have otherwise long forgotten.

In Novo Nordisk’s case I have looked at the company almost exactly 9 years ago, mostly because Rob Vinall was invested back then (he sold since).

Initially I looked at them in August 2016 and then again a few months later when the share price had declined even further (There was a stock split of 2:1 in 2023, so the per share numbers in my old posts need to be divided by 2).

In the end, I did nothing, although my second post basically marked the low point in the stock price almost to the exact day.

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Novo Nordisk (DK0060534915)- What now ?

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When I looked at Novo Nordisk 3 months ago, I found the stock too expensive at 315 DKK/share. That was my summary back then:

What could make the stock interesting again ?

Well, that’s simple: Either a lower stock price or higher growth. Maybe management has low-balled growth ? Who knows. Maybe the market over reacts if the next quarters don’t look that good ? According to Bloomberg, analysts officially still expect double-digit earnings per share growth well into 2019. Even adjusting for share buy backs, this will be difficult to achieve based on the growth rates communicated by management.

For me, the stock would become more interesting at around 250 DKK under the current growth assumptions. I think I would also like to see more negative comments from analysts.

With the stock now trading at ~229 DKK, it is clearly necessary to revisit the stock again.

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