value and opportunity

Just a few days ago we had a total different situation when I wrote my last panic journal entry:

Covid-19 infections went parabolic again, lock downs had already started, the US election was still in front of us, there was really bad weather and markets were in a suddenly very depressive mood.

Just 8 or 9 days later, things look different:  Joe Biden has won and The German-American Duo Pfizer-Biontech released very promising (early) results of its Phase III Study.

As I am not a vaccine/Virus expert, I’ll link to a post on how to interpret the results and try to summarize them:

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At first some good (or bad) news: By going through the German stock markets once again, I detected that my initial list was already outdated and that I missed quite some new IPOs and listings, so there will be (at least) one more post with German shares after this one before I then can wrap up the series into a condensed watch list.

This time, the 25 (to a certain extent) randomly selected (and US election free) stocks resulted in seven stocks that might be in principal worth watching and/or follow up.

751. L-KONZEPT Holding AG

L-Konzept is a 2.7 mn EUR market cap real estate company that has little business and small but consistent losses. “pass”.

752. Krones AG

Krones, a 1.7 bn market cap company is often considered one of the typical “hidden champions”, being the world leader in manufacturing bottling machinery for the beverage industry. With Covid-19, the whole beverage industry is clearly negatively effected which in turn might make business more difficult for Krones. However if we look at the stock chart, we can see that the stock already peaked in 2018:

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Back in lock down mode

Four weeks after my first post of “season 2” it is pretty clear: Wave 2 of Covid-19 is definitely here and growing.

In contrast to my assumption and the general feeling 4 weeks ago, Europe is now back in lock down mode. Certain areas in the UK, Spain, France, Italy and Belgium went into different forms of lock down already a few days ago. Here in Germany I think many Germans got the message, when the German Health Minister Jens Spahn had to announce that he got infected a few days ago. 

A “lock down light” will come into force in Germany on Monday with restrictions on contacts and closure of Restaurants and Bars. Austria just announced a harder version which for instance disallows any private visits after 8 pm which in effect is a 8pm curfew under another name.

What’s different this time compared to the first lock down ?

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And another 25 (more or less) randomly selected German stocks. This time, only 3 stocks made it onto my preliminary watch list.

701. Morphosys AG

Morphosys is a 3.4 bn EUR biopharmaceutical company that belongs to the “old school” biotechs. Looking at the chart, it took them 2000 year to get back to the level where the first boom in the late 90s pushed them:

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