Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Uber – Business model and “sum of parts” valuation attempt

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Health and safety warning: This is not investment advice. Please do your own research !!!!!

Following my book review of “Super Pumped” a few days ago I felt motivated (or “pumped up”) to look a little bit into Uber as a stock.

Uber is interesting in my opinion for a couple of reasons:

  • They really disrupted the taxi market with their app and even managed to create a new verb “Ubering”.
  • They managed to earn a dominent market share in many countries in a short time
  • In the markets where they failed, they ended up with significant stakes in the leading players (Chine/Didi. Russia/Yandex, SE Asia Grab)
  • The stock is extremely controversial
  • the lock-up for old investors has just expired
  • the stock price has been tanking for some time now
  • the company is not easy to understand

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Some links

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Interesting view on the “streaming wars”: It is not a “winner takes it all” game (Netflix, Disney)

The finance industry is increasingly using SPVs to trade hot startups Pre-IPO (Search result)

Gread “post mortem” on Restaurant Group Plc by John Kingham

A very critical view on online advertising

AQR/Cliff Asness thinks it is time to “tilt” towards “value stocks”

November update from Stock Spin-off Investing

Norway proves that there is still a lot of oil left in the North Sea

 

Some links

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Valuesque with a great post on extremely creative accounting at Grifols

A great collection of (less frequent) news sources for investors

UndervaluedShares on J.G. Boswell, a little known OTC listed company holding a lot of land (and water rights) in California

Good advice: Forget about stock market Calendar anomalies

The yetanothervalueblog with an October update (very comprehensive…)

Great post on what makes Costco such an unique company

Investors experience burn out, too

 

 

 

 

All German Shares part 7 (Nr. 60-75)

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Upfront remark:

This time, I increased the number of shares per post to 15. I am making good progress with the underlying analysis so I guess it makes sense to speed up the series somewhat.

Nr. 60: Ludwig Beck AG

Barely profitable retailer with a 110 mn market cap. However “super prime” freehold property in my hometown Munich. The in 2015 acquired retail chain Wormland has been put in run off and led to significant losses in 2018 and 2019. “Pass”

Nr. 61: S&O Agrar AG – ISIN: DE0005236202

Another Biogas penny stock, “pass”

Nr. 62: Cybits AG – ISIN: DE0007240004

Bankrupt penny stock. “Pass”.

Nr. 63: Data Modul AG – ISIN: DE0005498901

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Some links

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The “beer King” Anhauser Busch Inbev has seen better days

Interesting thought: Value stocks have performed in line with historical expectations but the anomaly is the performance of growth stocks

Third Point (Dan Loeb) Q3 letter

A closer look at Domino’s 

A very deep look inside the technology behind Elastic, one of the current SaaS superstars

Oddball Stocks on the problems with “sum of part” plays

Some recent updates on the GlobalStockPicking blog portflolio

Some Links

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Ding Dong: Next round in the fight between the Financial Times vs. Wirecard

Must Read: Valuesque on Related Party transactions

Notes from the SFC Sohn conference: part 1, part 2

Neil Woodford’s fund empire has collapsed in Record Time

The Fall 2019 issue of Graham & Doddsville

Prof. Damodaran on the IPO vs. Direct Listing question

Swen Lorenz with an interesting post on Virgin Galactic’s upcoming “Back door” listing

All German Shares – Part 6

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ANother upfront remark: I publish these posts with some delays, so not all numbers are real time. Also in some cases some news will have been issued afterwards like with Nordex (see below). Sometimes I might miss that…..

Nr. 50: CD Deutsche Eigenheim AG – ISIN: DE000A168270

Struggling real estate developer with 3 mn market cap. “Pass”

Nr. 51: Nordex AG – ISIN: DE000A0D6554

900 mn market cap Windmill manufacturer. Unprofitable, structural issues. “pass”
Edit: I wrote this a few weeks ago. In the mean time the stock price has recovered a little bit as Spanish company Acciona increased their stake via a capital increase to > 30% and had to issue a fromal takeover offer:

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Performance review 9M 2019 – Comment: The “Death of Value Investing” revisited

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In the first 9 months of 2019, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained 8,8% (including dividends, no taxes) against 19.4% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog.

Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows for 9M 2019:

Partners Fund TGV: -2.25%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +9,1%
Squad European Convictions +9,8%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos +7.5% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen 2,3%
Evermore Global Value  +13,7% (USD)
Greiff Special Situation +2% (est)
Squad Aguja Special Situation +9,8%
Paladin ONE 6,61%

Q3 2019 transactions

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Some links

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Prof. Damodaran on valuing vs. pricing IPO stocks

Will “Value Investing” ever make a come back ?

Interesting statistics on outperfomance of active stock managers (hint: High conviction helps…)

Good Q&A session with Bill Nygren (Oakmark)

Ben Evans thinks that Machine Learning (ML) is the new SQL

Valuesque with 2 good posts: 1) Adjusting for Hyperinflation (Unilever) and 2) Securitization transactions (Schaltbau)

John Kingham on (long term) lease obligations & IFRS 16

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