Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Metro Bank Plc – Terminal decline or Deep Value opportunity ?

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Warning: This is not investment advice. The author recently had a very disappointing track record so you might want to stay away as far as possible from this stock. DO YOUR OWN research.

Some three and a half year ago I briefly looked at Metro Bank, then the much hyped “Apple of Banking” and I didn’t like it that much. My summary back then was as follows:

Fundamentally, I do think that at the current share prIce the stock is already very “richly” valued as I don’t see a sustainable business model to earn the required returns on equity in the long run.I see a large risk that Metro Bank is rather a “one-trick pony” which worked well once but most likely not a second time.

At some point in time in the future this could even turn out to be an interesting short opportunity when growth is slowing and defaults start catching up.

In the meantime a couple of things happened:

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My 20 Investments for 2020

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My “resident blog troll” might interpret this post as “The 20 Stocks to stay away from in 2020” due to the underwhelming 2019 performance, but these are the stocks that are in my blog portfolio in the beginning of 2020.  Every reader can do whatever he wants with that list, either ignore it, go short or whatever.

I do a brief recap of each investment case including a short outlook from a portfolio perspective.

The summaries of the previous years can be found here:

My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

1. Miko (4,1% weight)

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Some links

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Prof. Galloway really doesn’t like Softbank

Must read: Rob Vinall has released his 2019 investor letter (New position: Wix)

The Peridot Capitalist thinks it would be a good idea to merge Uber Eats into Grubhub

Two UK reviews: Maynard Peyton reviews his (UK Small Cap) portfolio and another very good 2019 review from John Kingham (UK Value Investor)

Ben Carlson has written a book about financial scams and shares some scams that didn’t make it into the book

A very interesting story on how Netflix & Co are changing Hollywood

For the German speaking readers: Paladin One with their very transparent 2019 report

 

Performance review 2019 – Comment “Value Trading & Portfolio Decay”

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In 2019, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +15,0% (including dividends, no taxes) against +27.9% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in 2019:

Partners Fund TGV: +4,26% 
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +12,7%
Squad European Convictions +22,6%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos +6,9% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen +8,1%
Evermore Global Value  +23.9% (USD)
Greiff Special Situation +1,2%
Squad Aguja Special Situation +18,2%

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Some links

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Very interesting thoughts on US vs. China from a technology perspective and some very interesting books

JP Morgan’s guide to the markets (US focused) is worth reading

Prof. Damodaran on why big “total addressable markets” do not automatically mean great investment opportunities

GlobalStockPicking’ blog 2019 review

Bruce Packard is experimenting with Markov Chain analysis on company announcements

ClarkStreetValue had another (crazy) good year in 2019

A2 Milk from New Zealand has been a 162-bagger in the last decade

 

All German Shares – Part 11 (Nr. 176-200)

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New year, same series. This time the 25 stocks contain 5 watch list candidates. At 200 stocks I have managed now to cover already 25% of the universe.

176. Puma SE

Puma SE, the iconic German sportswear brand founded by the brother of Adi Dassler (Adidas) is a very interesting case. The now 10 bn EUR market company was one of the real hot growth stocks in the 90ies early 2000s, then nothing happened for a long time as we can see in the chart:

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Some links

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Interesting thoughts on the future of food delivery companies 

Must read: Valuesque on how “reverse factoring” can be (mis) used to (temporarily) juice up cash conversion and gross margins

The A16Z winter reading list

A recent interview with investment legend Peter Lynch

Eddie Elfenbein has released his 2020 buy list of 25 US stocks

Some interesting predictions for the next 10 years from VC Alex Danco

Deep insights into the casket Duopoly in the US

9 Years of Valueandopportunity – “The more I learn the less I know”

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Another “blogging year” has passed and Valueandopportunity has been now around for 9 years since its beginning as a German Speaking blog on “Value Investingg”.

Again a big thank you to all readers who continue to read and especially to those who contribute by constructive commenting and emailing me. Knowing that a few thousand investors find it somehow interesting what I write about is a great motivation.

As mentioned last year on the 8th anniversary, the time that I can commit to this effort is now quite limited. Still I managed to mostly send out weekly links plus some hopefully interesting posts. On the negative side, I didn’t reach my goal of looking at least at 1-2 investment opportunities in detail per month as I planned. I only managed to look at 9 stocks/ideas in more detail.

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German Startups Group KGaA – Where Deep Value meets Venture Capital

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Please do your own research !!!

Management summary:

Despite many issues in the past, I do think that German Startups Group, a stock listed VC investment vehicle, represents an interesting “deep value” situation, where one can buy 1 EUR of underlying value for less than 50 cents. A lot of things have changed into the right direction and there is the chance for some (soft) catalysts in the relatively near future. On the other hand, the unusual corporate structure in combination with a small market cap (EUR 15mn) and relatively illiquid trading also clearly makes it a risky investment.

“Never say never”

Some of my readers will ask: What did make my opinion change on this ?

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