Post Mortem Nabaltec AG – Beware of the “Short term fundamental Bull trap”

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Background:

As mentioned in the comments of the original post, I exited Nabaltec a few days ago, in order to fund a new position. There is no way around the fact that it was not a good investment. Actually, in the 13 years of this blog, it qualified as the 4th worst investment with regard to overall percentage loss within my “hall of shame” that I proudly present in this table:

Of course, there will be always bad investments but I think it is important to analyze what I could have been doing better in order to avoid making the same mistakes over and over again.

So what went wrong ?

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Value & Opportunity 13th Anniversary

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Every year on December 15th, the blog celebrates another anniversary, because on that day in December 2010, the blog went live for the first time.

As always there will be a separate performance portfolio review in the beginning of January.  13 is often considered an unlucky number. So far that hasn’t be the case for the blog, rather the opposite, as I didn’t have to start another “Panic Series” revival.

I have been thinking if I know any other stock focused blog that is still active and older than mine, but I couldn’t think of many. There are some longer running Financial blogs such as Calculated Risk or Marginal Revolution. Prof. Damodaran’s blog Musings on Markets is up since 15 years.

I can only speculate why so many blogs have disappeared over time, maybe it’s the allure of Social Media or the fact that a couple of the early bloggers became professional.

Personally I would be very interested if my readers know other stock focused blogs that have been running for a very long time. Kindly post into the comments if you know about stock blogs that exist for 10 years or longer.

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All Norwegian Share part 15 – Nr. 216-235

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And on we go witj another 20 ramdomly selected Norwegian stocks. This time, I found 5 of them quite interesting and put them onto the preliminary watchlist. Less than 40 companie sto go. Enjoy !!!

216. Cloudberry Clean Energy

Cloudberry is a 247 mn EUR market cap renewable energy company founded in 2017 and IPOed in 2020. In contrast to Sctaec, Cloudberry is only active in the Nordics. They develop and own and operate renewable power plants in Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Mostly Wind, but also some hydro assets and they seem also to plan to build some hybrid wind/solar parks.

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Some links

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A great write-up on Japanese Pump manufacturer Yamada from the always excellent Wintergem Blog

Interesting write-up on Kistos PLc, a UK Energy company from Moram

An interesting (follow up) write-up on Nintendo and progress made over 24 months

The Fundoo professor with an interesting case study on IFRC, an Indian specialty lender

A good reminder that successful long term investing is not easy, quite the contrary

Kikkoman Soy Sauce bottles have become collector’s items in the US

The Spanish Olive harvest has been pretty bad again, making olive oil (much) more expensive

Book review: “The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and The Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend “

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“The Fund” is in short an absolute tear-down of both, the legendary Macro Hedge Fund Bridgewater and its equally famous founder Ray Dalio. There is an old saying that you don’ want to know how the sausage is made and in this case this is more than fitting to what happened behind the scenes at Bridgewater.

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All Norwegian Shares Part 14 – No. 196-215

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Freshly motivated by Rob Vinall’s kind reference, let’s kiss more frogs in the Norwegian share market to see if we find a princess or two.. I expanded the amount of randomly selected companies to 20 per post as this allows me to finish the serieswith 4 posts overall. This time only two stocks made it on the preliminary watch list. Enjoy.

196. Reach Subsea

Reach Subsea is a 95 mn EUR market cap marine service company that seems to concentrate on “subsea services”, such as pipeline expections, reservoir monitoring etc. As far as I undestand, these services are mostly geared towards the oil and gas industry.

The stock has performed very well since a near death experience early 2020 and has made 5x since then:

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DEME (ISIN BE0974413453) – A Contrarian Opportunity to bet on Offshore Wind

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Expectation management: If you like either/or: super cheap companies /  high margins / capital light / short term catalysts / recurring revenue / low earning volatility / High dividends / share buy backs / companies with products in the supermarket  → THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.

Elevator pitch:

DEME, a Belgian Marine Engineering Group, is a contrarian, secular growth /mean reversion story. Current results are noisy, but growth, especially in offshore wind installation is intact and accelerating. A combination of strong growth and improving margins could lead to a tripling of EPS over the next 5 years.

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Some links

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A great manifesto for the “slow and boring” way of investing

Staying Rational on glass packaging companies Vidrala and Veralia

Moram pitches “The One Group Hospitality”, a US small cap restaurant operator

The Brooklyn Investor with some good thoughts on interest rates, stock valuation and some interesting book reviews

In interesting overview on Japanese Coporate profits and debt from James Montier

“Space Solar” sounds crazy but could be a thing in the nearer future (Google search result)

Josh Barro thinks that Ozempic/Wegovy is a bigger deal than AI

Some links

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Q3 Report from Gehlen Bräutigam with some interesting small cap profiles

Everything you ever wanted to know about the stock market in Bhutan (!!)

Howard Marks thinks that Corporate Credit is the place to be

A very critical review of Impact Investing by Prof. Damodaran

A very deep dive into electricity markets and why there is the chance that things are improving (US based, but applicable elsewhere)

Emerging Value likes German beverage small cap Berentzen

Jeremy from Foxcastle Holdings on French Small Cap Boa Concept

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