All Norwegian Shares Part 12 – Nr. 166-180

Less than 100 stocks to go after this post…I took some time to continue because I lost a full post to the bloody WordPress editor. As the random generator picked some quite interesting stocks this time, I had written quite a lot. This verson is shorter, but 5 stocks are worth to “watch”. I am still optimistic to finish before year end. Enjoy !!!

166. Zaptec

Zaptec is a 175 mn EUR market cap 2020 IPO that is surprisingly trading above its IPO price. According to Euronext, Zaptec is a “technology company within Electric vehicle (EV) charging systems in Europe. The company develops EV charging systems for multi and single-family homes and office buildings.”

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Some links

Prof. Damodaran with an epic post on valuaing intangibles and the Birkenstock IPO

FTAlphaville with some interesting details on the Metro Bank recapitalization plan (search result)

A good reminder from Wolfgang Klement: Admitting mistakes is hard, but the most constructive option

A funny Twitter thread showing that “investing” into random Lego sets outperfoms most VCs

A very interesting deep dive into the Spirits industry

Lots of action in the Spin-off Universe

A very interesting deep dive into the science of plastics eating Bacteria


Performance review Q3 2023 – Comment: “How tall should your hurdle be ?”

In the first 9 months of 2023, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +6,5% (including dividends, no taxes) against a gain of +8,3% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 9M 2023:

Partners Fund TGV: -0,9% (as of Sep 15th)
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +12,9%
Squad European Convictions 5,7%
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen +4,9%
Squad Aguja Special Situation +2,4%

Paladin One -4,7%
Alphastars Europe +4,9%

Performance review:

Within a quarter, the YTD performance jumped from close to the bottom of the peer group to second position. Looking at the monthly returns, it is not difficult to see that especially August and September were in relative terms very good:

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Some links

Once again an outstanding analysis from the Wintergem Blog. This time on Ilpra SPA from Italy.

Great write-up on Lindbergh SPA from Italy from Underfollowed stocks.

Flyover stocks with a list of 15 really good questions to ask management teams of companies

“The Big Short” author Michael Lewis thinks that Sam Bankman-Fried is very much missunderstood in public

The Eastern part of France might have large underground deposits of natural or “white” hydrogen

Podcasts (so far) are not the game changer for Spotify’s profitability

AirBnB got effectively banned in New York

Broedr. Hartmann (ISIN DK0010256197): A truly Egg-citing Special situation ?

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

  1. Introduction
  2. “Catalyst”: Lowball bid from Majority shareholder
  3. Delisting in Denmark – what I found so far
  4. Majority Shareholder Thornico
  5. What is Thornico’s ultimate goal ?
  6. Scenario Analysis, Risks & Summary
  1. Introduction

Broeder. Hartmann (not to mistake with Paul Hartmann AG) is a company I looked at during my All Danish Shares series in last July. I think it would be fair to call it a “hidden champion”. Their business model is focused almost 100% on egg packaging which as such is already something I like a lot. Their main product looks like this (only the box, not the content):

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Some links

Great deep dive on French Microcap Clasquin from the Wintergem blog

Epic post on the global wristwatch market from Michael Fritzell

No one beats Prof. Damodaran on analyzing Tech IPO’s. This time he looks at Instacart.

Flyover stock on the difficulties of selling a position

The debt fueled buying spree of Music back-catalogues seems to be over (for now)

Interesting article on activist short seller “Jehoshopath” and how life is getting (even) more difficult for the shorties

A very realistic look at the current state of Geothermal energy

Brødrene A & O Johansen A/S vs Solar Group A/S – A short comparison

I always wanted to have a quick look at A&O and was finally motivated again reading about it several times in my Twitter timeline. In my All Danish Stocks series, A&O didn’t make the cut because I had already Solar in the portfolio, but still I want to look at them as this often yields some insights into the other company.

Both companies are headquartered in Denmark and in principle distribute supplies for craftsmen/installers.  

From what I understand, Solar Group is focused a little more on electrical equipment, A&O has a broader assortment but focused on renovation and remodeling. A&O Johanson has a small B2C segment that makes up ~12% of sales but less in profits, as margins in B2C are smaller.

A&O is active in Denmark, Sweden and Norway, however 90% of sales seem to be in Denmark. A&O has a dual share structure, with “super voting” shares owned by the family and CEO giving copntrol to the family. Also Solar Group has a dual share class structure, with the majority of the votes owned by the heirs of the original founder (4th generation).

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Half year 2023 Portfolio Review Part 1/2

I had mentioned it several times in the past: I don’t think it makes sense to do quarterly updates on portfolio companies, as some of my holdings don’t even report quarterly and it would take away a lot of time.

It is also weirdly fascinating to watch how many investors seem to see quarterly earnings as something of a holy grail that you must follow and react on as quickly as possible (“Beat -buy” etc.). Personally, I prefer to let the dust settle and then, with a time lag of a few weeks have a look at earnings if they are roughly in the direction I had initially envisaged. Sometimes you might miss the best time to sell, but more often in my opinion quarterly earnings are very “noisy” and distract from a longer term picture. I also deliberately ignore analyst expectations and only measure earnings against my own expactions.

Nevertheless, looking at the portfolio every 6 months or so makes some sense. As not all companies report timely, I split this into 2 parts.

So let’s jump into the first part (in no particular order, sorry for that. I will look at Admiral, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Logistec, SFS, TFF Group, Thermador, Solar Group, DCC, Sto, Italmobiliare, Sixt, Nabaltec and Schaffner.

  1. Admiral

Admiral had reported  6 months results a few days ago and the market seems to have been positively surprised. In Admiral’s case, which is a long term holding (~9 years), I actually did “re-underwrite” the stock last year in July, so it makes sense to compare against my business case from last year.

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Some links

Prof. Damodaran throws in the towel for the rational valuation of Sports Franchises

The Wintergem Blog has an excellent introduction into the payments industry in its part 1 post on Adyen

Nice Write-up on Ashmore Plc, a stock I also owned in the past

Interesting Forbes Feature on TransDigm and its CEO

Todd Wennings new “Flyover Stocks” blog starts with an interesting Spin-off story (Worthington Industries)

A very interesting look at how net interest margins at banks behave during and after increases in overall interest rates

A great reminder why Insurance Loss Reserves are crucial for understanding Insurance companies

Tamburi Investment Partners (ISIN IT0003153621) – NAV vs. “Intrinsic Value”

Tamburi Investment Partners (TIP) is kind of a “secret star” in the area of European Holding companies. I looked at it briefly within my Italmobiliare write-up friom last week. The stock price has performed extremely well especially over a 10 year horizon:

TIP has been founded in 2000, listed in 2005 and the history is well documented on TIP’s homepage.

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