Market commentary (including 20 rules to survive the “Corona crisis”, Metro Bank, Paul Hartmann)

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Intro

Most readers know that I normally don’t do market comments, however this post will be an exception (and should therefore maybe ignored ?).

To be clear, I have no special information or personal opinion on how far the COVID virus will spread and what the ultimate effect of all this might be. Will there be a recession due to supply chain disruptions ? Will we see another stock market drop like 2002/2003 or 2008/2009 ? No idea, but in any case it makes sense to review what I think is the most reasonable way to behave for long term investors.

20 rules that might help you to survive, or at least sleep better

Situations like this are not unique and over the years I have created for myself some rules that might be helpful or not:

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Some links

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Must read: Why the (VC backed) technology sector seems to look very similar to the US shale industry some years ago

John Kingham thinks that DIageo is a good company but overvalued

UndervaluedShares with a great feature on the Lundin Group and how to make money in the “Dark Corners” of the capital markets

Are travel related stocks now a “Buy” ?

The Rational Capitalist blog has an in depth look into Buffett’s share repurchases over the years

GlobalStockPicking likes Greatview Aseptic, a competitor to Tetrapak

A critical viewon the “secret sauce” of the Private Equity industry

All German Shares Part 17 (Nr. 326-350)

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The next batch of 25 randomly selected German stocks.

In the last post, someone asked why I do not filter out certain stocks (Nanocaps etc.). I have thought of this, but decided against it.  The main reason is that some of these “Zombie’s” have really interesting stories that might contain important lessons. Plus there is a VERY small chance that a real gem is hiding somewhere, although I haven’t found one yet.

This time, I only put 3 stocks on my watch list, but some of the “passed” stocks have really interesting stories.

326. United Labels AG

United Labels is another child and survivor of the Dotcom boom. The 8.7 mn market cap company is active in licensing brands to producers of everyday articles like T-Shirts etc. Top line is however shrinking since a few years and this year they had to put their Spanish subsidiary into insolvency. “pass”.

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Some links

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The always excellent Valuesque blog with some insights on how to manipulate round EPS numbers 

A great list of attributes from A16Z on how to analyze market place businesses

The epic Semper Augustus annual letter (128 pages…)

Another AirBnB scam, this time in London

Very interesting deep dive why most AI (startup) companies are mostly not software companies but service businesses 

The art of defining EBITDA for tech companies

Yetanothervalueblog with a deep dive into Wrestling (WWE)

 

 

 

All German Shares part 16 (Nr. 301-325)

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At the moment I can keep the weekly frequency for this series. This time, the random generator only included 2 stocks that in my opinion are worth “watching” but some of the stocks covered have interesting histories.

301. Lotto24 AG

Lotto24 is providing online access to Germany’s state lottery. With a market cap of 353 mn, investors get a run rate of 5mn Profit. The high market cap is mostly a result of a successful take-over event of Zeal Group, which now seems to own 93% of the shares. a “pass” for me.

302. WCM Beteiligungs- und Grundbesitz Aktiengesellschaft

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Some links

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Undervalued Shares has a great feature about the “Klement on Investing” blog

FTAlphaville is not impressed by Uber’s plans for profitability

Valuesque with another interesting  “accounting deep dive”, this time on Northgate Plc

2019 letter to shareholdersof TGV Intrinsic (incl. TomTom write-up)

The Annual letter 2019 of Tyro Capital includes some great stuff on stock picking

Bruce Packard on the current “Quant winter”

A great deep dive into the risks and opportunities for Spotify

Some links

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A short thesis for Dunkin Brands

A very interesting article on US fast food franchises and what Chick- fil-A does differently

The UK Value Investor with a “post mortem” of his Aggreko position

ZephyrDatabase with the next installment of its All Belgian Share project

The 2019 annual report of the TGV Truffle fund

Some interesting technical observations on Tesla’s short interest

Now this imakes an interesting pair: Paul Singer’s Elliott goes activist on Masa Son’s Softbank

 

 

All German Shares part 14 (Nr. 251-275)

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This week there are as always a couple of “zombies”, some hyped real estate companies but also some interesting watch candidates and two former portfolio companies. Enjoy !!

251. Atoss Software AG

Atoss is a 620 mn market cap Enterprise Software company specializing in HR software solutions. As many Software companies, the stock has performed very well over the past few years:

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Some links

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Interesting write-up on Honda as an investment opportunity

A good collection of Spin-off related links

2019 review “Wexboy style”

Undervalued Shares has a super interesting story on the Channel Islandsand its stock exchange

Great deck from Benedict Evans on Tech in the 2020s (and regulation)

A pitch for Booking.com (and the Google Monster)

Valuesque with an interesting post on the issue of maturing inventory (Diageo etc,:)

 

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