6 years of Value & Opportunity
Exactly 6 years ago, the first (German) post of this blog was “released” into the WWW. As I have done in the past years, this is always a good time to reflect about happened over the year.
Again a big THANK YOU to all readers and especially those who actively contribute by commenting (critically) or sending Emails. I think without this input, the quality of the blog would not be the same or even the blog wouldn’t exist anymore.
Knowing that many smart investors read my post and contribute via comments or mails is really a very big part of the motivation to keep this blog up and running. Thank you again !!
So let’s move to the highlights of 2016:
Top 10 most popular posts written in 2016
1. Novo Nordisk – Great Compnay but also a great Investment
2.Uniper/E.ON Spin-off: Take one ugly Duck and transform into ….. 2 really ugly ducks ?3. Capital Allocation & Capital Managament – what is good and what is bad
4. A few Thoughts on Banking Stocks (Lehman 2.0, Deutsche Bank)
5. AQ Group (ISIN SE0000772956) – A 15 year “42- Bagger” without a Moat ?
6. Kinder Morgan (KMI): Asymetric Upside Potential
7. David Einhorn: Nice Q4 Lette but E.ON as a long Pick ? Really ? C’Mon !!!
8. Coface SA (ISIN FR0010667147) : Ultimate Death Spiral or Contrarian Opportunity in an attractive industry ?
9. Amercian Express (AXP) – Cheap “Buffett” Blue Chip or Value Trap ?
10. Armageddon Alert: WILL “Brexit” create a Black Hole that swallows Planet Earth & the Universe ?
It is interesting that mostly “big names” like Novo, Amex or Einhorn draw the most readers. Even more interesting is that some old general topic posts like “How to calculate Enterprise Value” still get clicked 5-10 times more often than the Top 10 from 2016……
Mistakes made in 2016
Buying Aixtron as a special situation without more research. I was only lucky to get out with a small loss. The timing of the Hornbach sale was very unfortunate after holding it for 5 1/2 years. Also the sale of Citizen’s, despite the nice profit was clearly too early and I missed out another 20% of the “Trump Rally”
Buying more Lloyd’s Bank after the Brexit was stupid. Banks always get punished and I underestimated the weakness of the pound.
And yes, buying Deutsche Bank in the beginning of October would have been a very good performer for “Hindsight Capital LLC” my new 100% p.a. vehicle.
The biggest learning this year was clearly:that it is very hard to predict what will happen on a macro level. Who would have thought that we will have the Brexit and Donald Trump us US president ? But even harder is to predict what markets would do when those events happen.
If you would have told me end of last year that those events would happen and I had to decide to invest for the full year or being not invested at all, I would have gone for the latter. Looking back, this would have been a big mistake.
So I am happy that I don’t have to earn my money with predicting macro events or timing stock markets.
Overall I managed to do ~23 deep dives in this “blogging” year which is pretty OK.
Among the 12 book reviews this year, my personal top 3 were the following:
Capital Returns (Marathon Asset Mgt.): Great and funny letters of Marathon Asset Mgt.
The Shipping Man: This cured me from ever looking at shipping stocks
and Shoe Dog, the autobiography of Phil Knight, founder of Nike.
Goals for 2017
According to the bible, the seventh year is the one where one should rest and do nothing. So far I do not plan to rest. 2 company analysis per month seems to be a very reasonable target. I do have a pretty long “to do” list which got even longer after the “12 ways the ideal company should be run” post.
On the other, hand, I do plan to move forward with a plan in 2017 that I had for a long time: I want to write a book. This might mean a somehow slower frequency for blog posts. And don’t worry: It will not be the 93rd book on Warren Buffett….