Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Biontech: Checking in once again & using LLMs to value the Pipeline

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Disclaimer: This is not Investment advice. PLEASE DO YOU OWN RESEARCH:

Management summary (Spoiler):

After selling Biontechs a few years ago, I reviewed Biontech once again by using LLMs to evaluate the development pipeline. Although this was an extremely interesting exercise, it is not an investment for me for the time being.

Background:

Biontech is a company I have owned in the past and written about. It became famous because they were the first to develop a MRNA based vaccine against Covid which they sold worldwide together with Pfizer.

My initial write-up can be found here, a follow up here.

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Some links 02/2026

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Interesting Post from Verdad on Japanese Banking stocks. In addition, they released a white paper on how to invest into Biotech companies

A very concrete example how an AI Tool (NotebookLM) can replace a lawyer in Venture Capital

Great first part of a write-up on Kinsale, the US Specialty Insurer from the Slow Compounding Substack

Very nice write-up on FW Thorpe, a UK based family owned company from Emil

Alcohol consumption is declining in China, too.

Flyover stocks with a nice post about the continued success of Fastenal

Swen Lorenz (undervalued shares) shares some interesting insights on what’s hot in Financial newsletters and what is not

Alcoholic Update: TFF Group 6M results & Mercosur-EU Trade agreement

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

TFF Group 6M numbers

No matter how you put it, TFF Groups 6M release on January 7th was pretty bad.

Sales down ~-25%, net profit down -33%. The only positive aspect is that the operating leverage (i.e. how much more profit declines than sales) is surprisingly modest.

Last year for instance, a -9% decline in sales led to a -40% decline in profits as we can see in the respective report form last year:

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Some links 01/2026

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Good “essay style” Video/Podcast from Dwarkesh on how easily current LLMs could repeat “Knowledge Workers” 

European Private Equity guru Ludovic Phallipou with a great deep dive paper on how shaky the underlying data is for PE returns

Very interesting deep dive into the reasons why large screen LCD TVs and monitors have become so cheap

Larry Swedroe’s 10 lessons from 2025 have some very deep insights (as almost everything he writes)

Interesting take on Venezuela from author Roger Lowenstein who did spend significant time in the country many years ago as a Journalist

Saudi Arabia is opening up its stock market for everyone

Klement on Investing with the interesting “Small Cap Fourth Quarter effect”

(Under-) Performance review 2025 – Comment: “Mean reversion investing – Banks & Spirits”

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As this review became a little bit longer (too much time on my hands ?), I decided to publish is as a PDF version. Have fun.

Summary:

There is no way around it: 2025 was another bad year in relative terms (the third in the row). The Value & Opportunity portfolio gained +9,4 % (including dividends, no taxes, AOC fund as of 30.09.2025) against +21,5% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all performance indices including Dividends). Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog.

Over the 15 years from 12/31/2010 to 12/31/2025, the portfolio gained +429% against +225% for the Benchmark (before taxes). In CAGR numbers this translates into 11,7% p.a. for the portfolio vs. 8,2% p.a. for the Benchmark.  

The full monty:

(Under-)Performance review 2025Download

My 23 Investments for 2026

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Following an annual tradition since 2013, by the end of the year, I review my portfolio by writing/updating very short summaries for each individual position.  17 of the 23 positions from last year are still in the portfolio and I have added 6 new positions. That turnover has been mostly driven by reviews and/or disappointing fundamental developments. 

I sold Fuchs, Amadeus Fire, Hermle, Royal Unibrew, Sto and Energiekontor.

A more comprehensive Performance review will follow in early January 2025.

A short user guide:
My preferred style of investing is a bottom up approach, focusing on 20-30 “Steady Eddy” small/midcap stocks that in my opinion have a good return/risk profile over the next 3-5 (or more) years. Many of these stocks are not household names and are unlikely to make spectacular gains in any single year. Many of them look interesting only after the second or third glance and are rather boring, which is exactly what I am looking for. So if you are looking for a “Hot stock for 2025”, this post won’t help you much. 

At the end of each “short pitch” I summarize my current assessment for the coming year(s).

And always remember: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

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Some links 30/2025

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The Blackstone Christmas Video is actually quite funny

The French Focus Investing Substack on why the Universal Registration Document is a treasure trove for French companies

Paul Kedrowsky argues that current LLMs are close to a dead end in further development

The productivity gains of AI in coding might be lower as many think

Interesting FT Article on “Accounting Shenanigans” at WH Smith

Morningstar with a nice analysis of what drives and helps long term growth for companies

Some interesting “non intuitive” stock market lessons from TIKR

15 Year Anniversary of Value & Opportunity

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Every year on December 15th, the blog celebrates another anniversary, because on that day in December 2010, the blog went live for the first time. As always a big “THANK YOU” to all readers who still keep reading the stuff.

As always there will be a separate performance portfolio review in the beginning of January.  

The top 10 posts in 2025 were the following (based on WordPress, LTM)

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Quick (and dirty): Cie Bois Sauvage Special Situation

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This is not Investment Advice. PLEASE DO YOU OWN RESEARCH !!!

Bois Sauvage is a Belgian Holding Company that I owned in the past and have written several times about:

2014 Write-up Bois Sauvage

2014 Update on Bois Sauvage and Ackerman

In essence it’s main business is high-end Belgian Chocolate (Neuhaus, Jeff de Brugges) and a variety of other assets, from real estate, listed Belgian stocks and some VC/PE like investments.

What created my renewed interest in the stock was this passage in a recent “Newletter” sent out by the company:

These topics are part of a broader transformation. For several months now, we have been conducting an in-depth strategic review of all our holdings. This review will result in concrete announcements in March 2026. It reflects our desire to better focus our efforts on our areas of expertise, align our portfolio with our ambition for sustainable growth, and enhance the clarity of our investment profile.

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Some links 29/2025

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Highly recommended: Prof. Damodaran on Market Cap thresholds over time , Nvidia and how to calculate implied growth rates

Another Flavour & Fragrances “Banger analysis” from Sector Stories, this time IFF 

French Focused Investing substack on Dividend Aristokrats in France

How (and when) to derisk portfolios before retirement

Great deep dive into the company Duolingo from Quartr

Interestingly, Dwarkesh will prioritize writing essays over doing podcasts

52 Interesting and entertaining things Tom Whitwell learned in 2025

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