Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Naked Wines ($WINE) update – The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

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Disclaimer: this s not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Naked Wines released their full earnings last week and the result was a full disaster with the share price down a whopping -43% despite the fact that the headline numbers were already known. It is a good reminder that even being down more than -60% from its top, a stock can still fall another -40% on one day. Although the stock was only a 2,9% position prior to that drop, it still warrants a deeper dive than usual.

The signs were already obvious

Before moving to the actual numbers and the report, I have to criticize myself for not acting on the stock despite the following issues that I had identified already some time ago:

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Some links

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Another interesting background article on Tiger Global 

Elad Gil on the current state and future of Venture Capital (Twitter Thread)

A good reminder that Wealth doesn’t flow anywhere when stock prices go down

Ray Dalio thinks that Stagflation is coming

Excellent write-up on Fuchs Petrolub from Augustusville

And a great Sony Deep Dive from Asia Century stocks

Why the “long tail” promise  in streaming never happened

 

Some links

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Brad Feld thinks startups should prefer “clean” down rounds to crazy structures

A deep dive into the factors why Nuclear Power is so expensive

Despite some popular home runs, Biotech Stocks as a group have underperformed over the long term

The Value Shares blog likes Vopak (German)

Searching4Value likes Croatian Pharma stock Krka

Bill Gates has released his “5 books for the summer” reading list

TikTok seems to have become essential for Music labels

 

 

Inflation vs. Pricing Power for Chemical companies & Nabaltec follow up (ADD)

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

Inflation & Pricing power

One of the obvious strategies for for investors in an inflationary environment is to pick companies that have “Pricing power”. Pricing power means that companies should be able to raise prices at least as quickly as costs rise.

Now one could try to do some deep thinking if and how different business models react to inflation. As I am a more “hands on” guy, my solution is to look at actual numbers and then try to draw my conclusion.

For any company that is producing material goods, the best indicator for pricing power in my opinion is Gross profit, i.e. the difference between selling price of a product minus the direct costs to produce them.

A company with pricing power should keep the gross margin or ideally even improve gross margins in an inflationary environment.

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All Danish Share part 8 – Nr. 71-80

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And another 10 randomly selected Danish shares. This time, only one stock made it onto the watch list. With 80 out of 179´stocks, we have covered almost half of the Danish universe by now..

 

71. Scandinavian Brake Systems (SBS) A/S

SBS is 4 mn EUR market company that seems to be a failed automobile supplier. “Pass”.

72. Relesys A/S

Relesys is a 34 mn EUR market cap SAAS software company that was IPOed in early 2021 and has lost -50% since then. The company has around 5 mn EUR in revenues in 2021 and is growing at around 30-40% p.a.

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Some links

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Not surprisingly, Wall Street Banks earned very well during the SPAC boom

And another long read on SPACs and upcoming regulation that would make the promoters actually liable (and therefore kill SPACs altogether, thank god)

“Undermoney” seems to be a very interesting book according to this review

In case you need a reminder: Market timing is not working

“The  Superinvestors of Augustusville” looks like a promising new stock blog/substack

Interesting reference to a 1950s Spin-off and a very interesting sounding Special Situations Book

The Private Equity sector looks quite shaky based on the recent behaviour

 

Insurtech Massacre part 3 – Lemonade & Churn, churn, churn !!

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Long time readers know that I have a soft spot for insurance companies. Some weeks ago, I started looking into Insurtech companies and then I looked into Lemonade’s 2021 earnings. Since my first post, Lemonade has lost another 1/3 of its value and is now significantly below its IPO price.

What I like about Lemonade is that they indeed created a “fresh” insurance brand, however the numbers were clearly challenging. My main takeaways from last time were as following:

  • Growth is slowing
  • marketing cost is increasing (per new dollar premium)
  • The business is not really scaling

Already a week ago, Lemonade issued its Q1 earnings. This time, I have compiled a few line items that I find interesting on a quarterly basis in order to analyze things more deeply:

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Some links

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Nice write-up on Apollo Global (although I would not invest there)

An interesting essay on streaming – Unbundling vs. Bundling etc. from the former CEO of Sky

NotBoring on the Terra-Luna implosion

Why the US has an infant formula (milk powder) crisis

The UndervaluedJapan Blog celebrates its (slightly frustrated) 10th anniversary

Rare feature on Chris Hohn (TCI Fund)

John Hempton is angry about the Management of Swedish Match because of the proposed take over

All Danish Stocks part 7 – Nr. 61-70

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Looking at randomly selected Danish shares is a nice exercise in order to calm one#s nerves during times like these. here is yet another batch of 10 Danish shares. This time, two of them I found worth to “watch”, for one of them i even started an initial position.

 

61. Genmab A/S

Genmab is a 18.4 bn Biotech company that manufactures among other stuff antibodies that are used for cancer treatment. The company is extremely profitable, with net margins between 35-60%. 

At 50x 2021 earnings and 17x revenues, the stock is not cheap, despite a drop in profits in 2021.

The share price has corrected a little but investors that hold the stock for a few years should be still very happy:

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