Prof. Damodaran on valuing vs. pricing IPO stocks
Will “Value Investing” ever make a come back ?
Interesting statistics on outperfomance of active stock managers (hint: High conviction helps…)
Good Q&A session with Bill Nygren (Oakmark)
Ben Evans thinks that Machine Learning (ML) is the new SQL
Valuesque with 2 good posts: 1) Adjusting for Hyperinflation (Unilever) and 2) Securitization transactions (Schaltbau)
John Kingham on (long term) lease obligations & IFRS 16
Again a quick upfront comment: Why did I start that series right now ? I guess it is a combination of bad experience in some foreign stocks (Cars.com, Silver Chef), the expectation of a more economically difficult situation in Germany (which will probably provide some opportunities later on) and curiosity. So far I have to say it is great fun, at least for me.
Nr. 40: Solutiance AG – ISIN: DE0006926504
Another renamed/reactivated company, now something with real etsate management software. 10 mn market cap, around 1 mn sales. “Pass”
Nr. 41: Surteco AG – ISIN: DE0005176903
Ben Thompson on Uber and other “Tech” companies that interface with the real world
Direct Listing vs. IPOs with VC legend Bill Gurley (Podcast)
An update from the Stock Spin-off Investing blog
Fascinating story about “Yuutai Investing” in Japan
Safal Niveshak on the “death of businesses”
The Brooklyn Investor doesn’t think that we are in a stock market bubble
However, FTAlphaville is concerned about the “Big Balance Sheet Economy”
Innogy Tendered Shares
A quick update on this “cheap option play”: To a small extent this has developed better than I intitially thought as I had mentioned in the comments. My initial expectation would have been a small loss. However, E.On now has increaesd the price for the tendered Innogy shares voluntarily to 37.59 EUR which, inclding the dividend of 1,40 will lead to a small profit (before taxes and cost) . However the ultimate upside, if there is a lawsuit, will be smaller as the E.On shares dropped to 9 EUR and the theoretical value of the tendered shares is now 4.371*9= 39,34 EUR.
Post number 4 in this series. This tiem a quick upfront remark what I do with the “watch list” that I create out of this: The watch list will be used to actually just watch these shares more actively and maybe follow up with a deeper analysis when time allows. In general I do think there is no time pressure with German shares. Germany has technically entered a recession and a lot of shares are still not cheap.
Nr. 30: Centrotec Sustainable AG – ISIN: DE0005407506
A 215 mn EUR market cap company with a very interesting product portfolio, i.e. specializing in energy efficient technologies for buildings. Majority owned by the founder, quite cheap (P/E of 12) and growing. Tailwind from new “climate saving” initiative from the German government which bumped the share price in the last few days. The company unfortunately is not very profitable (EBIT margin ~4-5%) despite the construction boom in its core market Germany. I have also doubts how long the ccurretn real estate boom in Germany will last. Nevertheless one for the “watch list”
A good long read on Moats (for startups)
The Aleph blog is back with thoughts on Value Investing’s potential comeback
GlobalStockPicking does a portfolio review
Prof. Damodaran on Venture Capital pricing & WeWork, Uber and Peleton
European banks seem to under invest into IT
And finally Safel Niveshak with 5 sure ways to destroy your wealth
And the next 10 shares in this series:
Nr. 20: Magforce AG
123 mn EUR Nano-Medtech company claiming to develope a cancer cure. Sales so far negligible. Not my area of competence, so “pass”.
Nr. 21: Bijou Brigitte AG – ISIN: DE0005229504
This is part 2 of the series with the next batch of 10 stocks.
Nr. 11: Metrci Mobility Solutions AG:
Insolvent Nanocap (40K market cap). “Pass”.
Nr. 12: Stabilus SA – ISIN: LU1066226637
1.1 bn Market cap automobile and industrial supplier specialising in gas springs. Stock has been hard by the automobile industry downturn (-50% from peak stock price in 2018):
Read more
Prof. Damodaran with a deep dive into WeWork
Woodford’s problems might lead to some value opportunities in Tech (search result, H/T Monevator)
A good reminder that value investing works over the long term because it often doesn’t work in between
Interesting post on banking (and German Banks) from Bruce Packard
VC “legend” Fred Wilson on the merit of positive Cash Flows
A16Z on how even successful platforms are at risks to be “unbundled” into new verticals
Stitch Fix looks like an interesting company / Stock
This is part 1 of the “All German Shares” series. As mentioned in the intro a few days ago and as a reminder:
Ok, so let’s start:
Nr. 1: DEMIRE (Deutsche Mittelstands Real Estate) AG – ISIN DE000A0XFSF0
DEMIRE is a listed real estate company focusing on “secondary” location commercial real estate objects, i.e. locations that are not “Prime”. The company has a market cap of 530 mn EUR and is stating an NAV of ~5,85 EUR compared to its latest stock price of around 4,90 EUR.
value and opportunity 