Category Archives: Anlage Philosophie

My 28 Stocks for 2022

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Following an annual tradition once a year I’ll try to review my current portfolio by writing short summaries/update for each individual position. Unfortunately, I didn’t manage to do this before year end in 2021, but better late than never.

This year, 17 of the 27 companies from last year are still in the portfolio and I have 11 new positions which again looks like quite high turnover. Again, part of that high turnover is driven by “killing” the travel basket and creating a new “Energy Transition /Electrification” basket.

Overall, the number of positions is on the upper end of my preferred range of 20-30 titles. So any new investments will need to be financed through a sale of existing positions.

The summaries of the previous years can be found here:

My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021
My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

1. TFF Group (6,0%)

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V&O goes Crypto (again) – Part 1: Intro & Major Coins

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Introduction: Why looking at Crypto at all ?

I had written first about Bitcoin in September 2016, when 1 Bitcoin was around 1000 USD.  I always had an academic interest because the original idea and the execution of a decentralized decision making system has been a great achievement in itself. You’ll find an attempt to describe Bitcoin and Blockchain here from September 2017.

In November 2017 I made the following observation:

In my opinion, the current Cryptocraze is much more like the South Sea bubble than the Tulip mania.

Underlying the current Crypto currency mania in my opinion is a fundamental new way how to raise capital for and create a new type of decentralized organization.

Clearly the then prominent ICOs were mostly complete garbage or outright theft, such as Wysker or the Naga Coin.

However, four years later, Crypto is booming again and the big currencies are more “valuable” than ever before and there is a “Cambrian explosion” of activity all over the Crypto space.

So I decided to have another look at the Crpyto mainly to educate myself on new Crypto currencies but also on “second generation” activities such as Staking, DAOs, DeFi and NFTs.

Maybe it is of interest to some readers, maybe not, but I do think it makes sense to understand a little bit the evolution in this space. Just to be clear: I don’t think that the space is “investable” as such, however part of the infrastructure that is created now might have impacts on other parts of the economy and society.

So let’s kick it off with looking at the main 20+ Crypto currencies according to “market cap” according to coinmarketcap.com.

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11 Years of Valueandopportunity.com

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11

Every year on December 15th, the blog celebrates another anniversary, because on that day in December 2010, the blog went live for the first time. (Edit: This should have gone out yesterday….).

As always there will be a separate performance portfolio review in the beginning of Januray.  This time, it is the 11th. I have googled around a little bit and the Number 11 seems to mean sometimes achieving a higher spiritual level. I am not sure if I managed this in my 11th year in the blog, although I feel strangely relaxed about the recent market turbulences 😉

Again, a big thank you to all readers, especially those who contribute (and motivate) via constructive comments but of course also to all the silent readers.

The top 10 posts in 2021 were the following:

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All Swiss Stocks – Final edition

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Condensing the watchlist and some general remarks:

As the ultimate climax (or anticlimax), my readers will find below a table with all Swiss stocks that I identified in round 1 as worth to “watch” including a second flag if they made it into my 20 stock “priority” watch list. Those who manage to read to the very end will also find my next target country for the “All Stocks” series 😉

Overall, I prioritized companies that are already in my portfolio or have the chance to become a member of my high quality “GARP” bucket at some point in time in the future or undergo a potentially value enhancing transformation process (ABB, Metall Zug, Holcim).

I am in general very positively surprised, both on the quality of the businesses that I have seen as well as the quality of the reporting of many companies. I always thought that Switzerland is mostly about banking and tax evasion.

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All Swiss shares part 19 – Nr. 201-213

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Finally I made it, below you find short summaries of the last 13 randomly selected Swiss stocks quoted on the SIX, three of them are potentially worth watching.

Just one remark: There are many smaller Swiss stocks quoted outside SIX, but as I am not able to trade them via my brokerage accounts, I will omit them in this series.

Overall, I have identified 45 stocks out of these 213 as potentially worth watching. The final post of this series will condense this to maybe 15-20 stocks that I think I can handle going forward.

201. CS Group

CS Group has a market cap od 23.6 bn CHF and clearly has seen better days. They managed to be part of all the big blow ups in the last few years, from Greensill to Bill Hwang or Wirecard, not to mention ugly infights of the previous management.

So it is not a surprise that the chart looks ugly and the market cap is less than 50% of arch rival UBS:

CS

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Panic Journal – “It ain’t over ’til it’s over”

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In May this year, I had (prematurely) ended my Panic Journal series with the following, slightly too optimistic conclusion:

As mentioned above, despite some remaining risks, the peak of the Pandemic seems to be behind us.

Looking ahead however, I do think that it is risky to think that now all problems will fall away and we will have a multi year super boom that will lead to yet another big general stock market party.

I don’t predict a crash either, as the Pandemic has clearly shown me that I know a lot less about (current) markets than I thought. So the best thing to do is to continue trying to learn what is going on and not trying to make decisions based solely on experiences from the past.

Now, seven months later, many of us are (again) sitting in their home offices and facing the 4th wave  plus  potentially a more dangerous variant of the Virus.

Again, vacation plans have been killed and the discussion for or against vaccination resembles religious wars in medieval times. Time for the “Panic Journal” again. As before, don’t expect any actionable advise here, this posts are more like a self therapy.

The Virus

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All Swiss Shares part 18 – Nr. 191-200

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With 200 out of 215 stocks now covered, this will be the penultimate post in this series covering single stocks. My goal is to conclude this in 2021 and it almost looks like I’ll succeed.

This time, two stocks look like worth watching further. At the very end of this series I will need to consolidate my watchlist and concentrate on the top 20 (or so) stocks to watch going forward.

191. Temenos

Temenos is a 9 bn CHF market cap software company that specializes on Software for banks and financial institutions. Looking at the chart one can see a very nice run up until 2018, since then the stock trades sideways under significant volatility:

Temenos

The company as such is highly profitable, with EBIT margins of > 30%. In 2020, sales declined by -8%, but EPS remained more or less constant. As many other “traditional” Software companies, Temenos seems to be transitioning right now from a licence + maintenance model to a SaaS model.

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With 200 out of 215 stocks now covered, this will be the penultimate post in this series covering single stocks. My goal is to conclude this in 2021 and it almost looks like I’ll succeed.

This time, two stocks look like worth watching further. At the very end of this series I will need to consolidate my watchlist and concentrate on the top 20 (or so) stocks to watch going forward.

191. Temenos

Temenos is a 9 bn CHF market cap software company that specializes on Software for banks and financial institutions. Looking at the chart one can see a very nice run up until 2018, since then the stock trades sideways under significant volatility:

Temenos

The company as such is highly profitable, with EBIT margins of > 30%. In 2020, sales declined by -8%, but EPS remained more or less constant. As many other “traditional” Software companies, Temenos seems to be transitioning right now from a licence + maintenance model to a SaaS model.

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Some links

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Ever wondered why Netflix streams better then others on your Device ? OpenConnect may be the answer.

Short writeup on the GoreStreet Energy Storage Fund

A very good artice on how the current “meme markets” are functioning

Swen Lorenz likes Petershill partners, the IPO/spin-off from Goldman Sachs

Part 4 of an interesting deep dive into Sea Ltd, a South East Asian Tech conglomerate

Doordash’s deck to justify the Wolt acquisition (My take: very thin…)

Stratechery on Unity and the attraction of “faceless platforms”

All Swiss Stocks part 17 – Nr. 180-190

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No bonus this time, only 10 Stocks in this post. Spoiler: none of the 10 stocks went onto the watch list.

Another interesting story that caught my attention is this one: The Swiss Exchange finally opens up to SPAC listings. It’s about time to catch the last wave of this hype. The Swiss seem to be unhappy with the large share of (expensive) quality companies listed right now.

181. Valiant AG

Valiant is a 1,4 bn CHF market cap Bank Holding company. As with all other Swiss banks, the company seems to stagnate since a long time. “pass”.

182. Galenica AG

Galenica is a 3,4 bn CHF market cap company that calls itself the “leading Swiss Healthcae Platform”. The company IPOes in april 2017 and has performed decently since then:

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All Swiss Stocks Part 16 – Nr. 166-180

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As last time, I throw in an extre 5 stocks at no extra cost for my readers (2 candidates to watch) !!! To make it an even more compelling offer, I add this link which explains how German investors can mitigate the 35% withholding tax for Swiss dividends.

166. Walliser Kantonalbank AG

Walliser is one of the many regional banks with a market cap3 of ~1,6 bn CHF. As the other Kantonalbanken, the have a decent dividend (~3,3%) but the stock price is flatlining for many years. “Pass”.

167. Valora AG

Valora is a 775 mn CHF market cap company that is active in food and convenience retailing. If I understand it correctly, they run both, own outlets as well as franchises and have a certain focus on bakery products. 75% of sales are done in Switzerland.

The long term share price looks extremely uninspiring:

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