My 22 (+1) investments for 2024

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Following an annual tradition, by the end of the year, I review my portfolio by writing/updating very short summaries for each individual position.  16 of the 23 positions from last year are still in the portfolio and I have added 7 new positions. That turnover has been partially driven by exits/take-overs (Schaffner, Logistec) and by finding new ideas. A more comprehensive Performance review will follow in early January 2024.

A short user guide:
My preferred style of investing is a bottom up approach, focusing on 20-30 small/midcap stocks that in my opinion have a good return/risk profile over the next 3-5 (or more) years. Many of these stocks are not household names and are unlikely to make spectacular gains in any single year. Many of them look interesting only after the second or third glance and are rather boring, which is exactly what I am looking for. So if you are looking for a “Hot stock for 2024”, this post won’t help you much.

And always remember: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

As a special service and to offer something “fresh”, I have created a new portfolio overview chart based on holding periods which I proudly present here:

The summaries of the previous years can be found here:

My 23 Investments for 2023
My 28 Investments for 2022
My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021
My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

Let’s go:

1. TFF Group (Portfolio weight 7,4%, Holding period 13,0 years)

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All Norwegian Stocks part 17 – Nr. 236 – 255

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So, one more Norwegian stocks post before Christmas. Another 20 randomly selected stocks with some Sparebanken, early stage VC suff but also 4 companies that made it onto the watch list.

EDIT: Apologies, I got the numbering wrong, this is actually post number 17 and the companies 236-255. So less than 20 to go…..

236. Standard Supply

Standard Supply is a 78 mn EUR market cap company that was formed and IPOed in 2022. They own a couple of ships that supply oil platforms and according to the presentation have been bought cheaply. As I have little knoweledge on the sector, I’ll “pass”.

237. Romerike Sparebank

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Samse Group (ISIN FR0000060071) – A Hidden French Compounder that is as exciting as watching Paint dry ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

As in the past, due to the bad WordPress editor, I’ll post a summary here and attach the full write-up as PDF.

After teasing a new position in the Nabaltec “Post Mortem”, I proudly present the next (hopefully) super boring company for my boring portfolio.

SAMSE SA is a French company that distributes building materials to “professional” customers like contractors, craftsmen etc. It also has a smaller “Direct to consumer” DYI store segment, which represents around 20% of sales. Samse is active only in France and No. 2 after Saint Gobain, which, however is much bigger even only in this specific sector (2000 outlets vs. 350).

Here is an overview of relevant “KPIs” at a share price of 190 EUR (time of writing):

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Post Mortem Nabaltec AG – Beware of the “Short term fundamental Bull trap”

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Background:

As mentioned in the comments of the original post, I exited Nabaltec a few days ago, in order to fund a new position. There is no way around the fact that it was not a good investment. Actually, in the 13 years of this blog, it qualified as the 4th worst investment with regard to overall percentage loss within my “hall of shame” that I proudly present in this table:

Of course, there will be always bad investments but I think it is important to analyze what I could have been doing better in order to avoid making the same mistakes over and over again.

So what went wrong ?

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Value & Opportunity 13th Anniversary

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Every year on December 15th, the blog celebrates another anniversary, because on that day in December 2010, the blog went live for the first time.

As always there will be a separate performance portfolio review in the beginning of January.  13 is often considered an unlucky number. So far that hasn’t be the case for the blog, rather the opposite, as I didn’t have to start another “Panic Series” revival.

I have been thinking if I know any other stock focused blog that is still active and older than mine, but I couldn’t think of many. There are some longer running Financial blogs such as Calculated Risk or Marginal Revolution. Prof. Damodaran’s blog Musings on Markets is up since 15 years.

I can only speculate why so many blogs have disappeared over time, maybe it’s the allure of Social Media or the fact that a couple of the early bloggers became professional.

Personally I would be very interested if my readers know other stock focused blogs that have been running for a very long time. Kindly post into the comments if you know about stock blogs that exist for 10 years or longer.

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All Norwegian Share part 15 – Nr. 216-235

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And on we go witj another 20 ramdomly selected Norwegian stocks. This time, I found 5 of them quite interesting and put them onto the preliminary watchlist. Less than 40 companie sto go. Enjoy !!!

216. Cloudberry Clean Energy

Cloudberry is a 247 mn EUR market cap renewable energy company founded in 2017 and IPOed in 2020. In contrast to Sctaec, Cloudberry is only active in the Nordics. They develop and own and operate renewable power plants in Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Mostly Wind, but also some hydro assets and they seem also to plan to build some hybrid wind/solar parks.

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Some links

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A great write-up on Japanese Pump manufacturer Yamada from the always excellent Wintergem Blog

Interesting write-up on Kistos PLc, a UK Energy company from Moram

An interesting (follow up) write-up on Nintendo and progress made over 24 months

The Fundoo professor with an interesting case study on IFRC, an Indian specialty lender

A good reminder that successful long term investing is not easy, quite the contrary

Kikkoman Soy Sauce bottles have become collector’s items in the US

The Spanish Olive harvest has been pretty bad again, making olive oil (much) more expensive

Book review: “The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and The Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend “

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“The Fund” is in short an absolute tear-down of both, the legendary Macro Hedge Fund Bridgewater and its equally famous founder Ray Dalio. There is an old saying that you don’ want to know how the sausage is made and in this case this is more than fitting to what happened behind the scenes at Bridgewater.

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All Norwegian Shares Part 14 – No. 196-215

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Freshly motivated by Rob Vinall’s kind reference, let’s kiss more frogs in the Norwegian share market to see if we find a princess or two.. I expanded the amount of randomly selected companies to 20 per post as this allows me to finish the serieswith 4 posts overall. This time only two stocks made it on the preliminary watch list. Enjoy.

196. Reach Subsea

Reach Subsea is a 95 mn EUR market cap marine service company that seems to concentrate on “subsea services”, such as pipeline expections, reservoir monitoring etc. As far as I undestand, these services are mostly geared towards the oil and gas industry.

The stock has performed very well since a near death experience early 2020 and has made 5x since then:

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DEME (ISIN BE0974413453) – A Contrarian Opportunity to bet on Offshore Wind

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Expectation management: If you like either/or: super cheap companies /  high margins / capital light / short term catalysts / recurring revenue / low earning volatility / High dividends / share buy backs / companies with products in the supermarket  → THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.

Elevator pitch:

DEME, a Belgian Marine Engineering Group, is a contrarian, secular growth /mean reversion story. Current results are noisy, but growth, especially in offshore wind installation is intact and accelerating. A combination of strong growth and improving margins could lead to a tripling of EPS over the next 5 years.

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