Panic Journal 8 – “Easy dancing”

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It has been almost one month since my last panic journal post and a lot has happened in between. The stock market has roared back like crazy and everyone seems to ask themselves when they look at YTD charts and compare it with unemployment numbers and GDP “growth”: What the hell is going on ? Is this the next “Bubble” ? Are people crazy ?

Of course I can’t explain what is going on either but at least from my perspective three main topics stand out that I did not expect to such an extend and seem to be fundamentally positive surprises compared to a worst case scenario:

  1. Central banks and Governments have acted more quickly and more radical than anyone thought
  2. The “Dance” after the “Hammer” so far looks a lot easier that envisaged
  3. A vaccine might come earlier than initially expected

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Interactive Brokers (Sell), Sino AG (Buy), Tiffany & Co (Buy)

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Interactive Brokers:

As mentioned in the comments on the previous post, I sold my Interactive Broker stocks.  Why ? Mainly because of the following reasons:

  • although I still think that it is a very good company, I reconsidered some of my assumptions after reading the “Chuck” Schwab autobiography
  • Despite the fact that the  Covid-19 crisis seems to have driven an increase in new accounts and trading commissions, the long term effects of lower interest rates (and margins) will be significant as interest margins are the main driver of profitability in the mid- to long term. My current scenario is that interest rates will remain very low even in the US for a very long time.

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Some links

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The Undervalued Shares blog has started an interesting “Behind the scenes” series

A good summary from A16Z on how moats develop

Ben Thompson with some deep thoughts on platform business models (Shopify)

A good summary of the crazy things in the capital markets that happened in the last few months

An interesting in depth story on the Luckin Coffee fraud (WSJ, paywall)

Deep Dive on stock based compensation

Alternative data use for predicting asset prices is booming

 

All German Shares Part 24 (Nr. 501-525)

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Another 25 randomly selected German stocks including four stocks this time who made it onto my “watch” list:

501. Fair Value REIT

Fair Value is a listed REIT with 104 mn EUR market cap. The portfolio includes a >50% share of retail objects which will be extremely challenged. The stock price has dropped a little but not much. “pass”.

502. Fortec Elektronik AG

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Some links

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The Brooklyn Investor on Buffett, Markel, Airlines, Banks, Insurance companies and more

A deep look into Netflix accounting practices

An interesting piece on the dire situation in Brazil

Great application of a 1940s stock book (Where are the customers’ yachts ?) on today’s markets 

Bill Gates’summer book list

Video interview with 3G mastermind Jorge Paolo Lemann (scroll to 00:58 hours for the most interesting part)

An interesting article on private company Epic Games which seems to become a dominating digital player

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agfa Gevaert (ISIN BE0003755692) -An Ugly Duck with some Golden Eggs in its nest ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Intro

Agfa-Gevaert was on my research list for some time now. Fellow blogger Undervalued Shares than triggered my renewed interest with their post from a few days ago and one of my best “Special situations” ideas ever was a Belgian company (Sapec).

I’ll try to summarize the part of the post that deals with Agfa:

  • Active Ownership, a relatively new but successful German activist fund (Stada) has build up a position (~14%] and board membership (actually the Chairman) in Agfa Gevaert, the traditional German-Belgian film / imaging company
  • Despite having some interesting assets, Agfa didn’t create shareholder value over a long time
  • opaque reporting and a 1 bn EUR pension liability made it unattractive to stock market investors
  • In 2020, Agfa managed to sell part of its Healthcare IT segment for 975 mn EUR
  • Initially, the stock went up to ~5 EUR based on the first info on the sale but hasn’t fully recovered yet

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Some links

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John Hempton is frustrated that he didn’t outperform more in March

A sobering look at the future of the restaurant industry (US)

Mark Cuban funded at Covid-19 compliance test of reopened restaurants in Dallas. The results are not good.

Some interesting thoughts from Prof. Galloway on “unusual” business strategies and their long term impacts (Apple, Amazon, Walmart etc.)

Disney will be the bellwether to see if and when things in tourism go back to normal

The Graham & Doddsville Spring 2020 issue is out

According to Glassdoor, the companies with the best Glassdoor employer ratings outperform indices significantly over time

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