Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Some links

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Some really good advice on how and for what to use Twitter

Morgan Housel with a big post on 17 “common mental models”

Value Situations with a write up on Spin-off Wickes Group Plc

Interesting Twitter thread on how much wheat could actually be missing from world markets due to the Ukraine War (Spoiler: very little). From the same author some facts on fertilizer as well.

Despite the “tech crash”, private Ultra Fast delivery start-up Getir is able to raise money at a record valuation

Some thoughts on what might have triggered Buffett’s interest in Alleghany

The low beta premium seems to be mostly an illiquidity premium

Some links

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Let’s start with a Goodie: Pareto Securities is holding its annual TechIT conference on March 30th. It is a virtual event and also open for non-professional investors. And it is good value because it is free.

GlobalStockPicking with a very nice write-up on Swedish MedTech RaySearch

In depth interview on the “metaverse” with a 19 year Second Life veteran

Marc Rubinstein on the current Russia issues of Airplane Leasing companies (AerCap)

Good deep dive into the “premium alcohol” market from Lindsell Train

A comprehensive market update from Prof. Damodaran reflecting the impact from the war in UKraine

Heat pumps look like a no brainer these days

A couple of really helpful matrices to cluster investments

ALL DANISH STOCKS PART 4 – NR. 31-40

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One thing that I hadn’t managed to mention in my Panic series is that keeping up the normal routines instead of constantly staring at the screen for stock price action is also very important in order to “survive” volatile days as an investor.

With that in mind, I am more than happy to continue the all Danish Stocks series with 10 fresh randomly chosen stocks. This time four stocks made it on the “first round” watch list. Denmark seems to turn out as a quite promising hunting ground so far.

31. Columbus A/S

Columbus is an IT focused consultancy with a market cap of 160 mn EUR. Looking at their numbers, already 2019 was quite problematic and things didn’t improve much since then.

In January 2021, they sold a software subsidiary which resulted in a gain of around 2/3 of the current market value but they have distributed all the proceeds as a special dividend already.

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Panic Journal RUSSIA / UKRAINE Edition PART 2

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Mental preparation

Another week and the war still goes on. My subjective feeling is that currently, a surprising large amount of investors still believe that this war will end relatively soon, one way or the other. However, if the war will last for a few years, we would be still far away from a turning point with a lot of escalation potential (stopping the oil and gas pipelines, “dirty weapons”, tens of millions of refugees etc). In the short term however, especially in European markets we could see some rallies if some good news is surfacing.

Consequences As mentioned already, I desperately hope (and still pray) for a quick end, but mentally, as an investor, I prepare for a much longer conflict. What does that “preparing mentally” mean ?

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Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) – welcome back !!

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Background:

Gaztransport & Technigaz is a company that I had looked at in early 2016 and most of what I have written back then still applies:

Imagine you could invest into a company with the following characteristics:

– Global market leader with 70-90% market share (95% new built)
– Net margins after tax of 50% or more
– business protected by patents
– almost no capital requirement, negative working capital
– a potentially huge growth opportunity
– conservative balance sheet (no debt) and “OK” management

Back then, I found the stock initially too expensive at EUR 34 per share, however I invested then at around 22 EUR but sold after a quick gain at around 31 EUR.

What did happen since then ?

Looking at the chart, I was clearly underestimating the value of the stock by a wide margin as the stock more than tripled until early 2021:

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Panic Journal – Russia / Ukraine edition Part 1

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Roughly two years after the beginning of the Pandemic, a lot of people thought that we would now get slowly back to our “normal lives” and chill out. Until Mr. Putin decided that he needs to protect himself by invading Ukraine.

As in the original Panic Journal series, these posts are more “self therapy” than anything else, so please excuse me any irrelevant ramblings.

Maybe one upfront remark: I am an investor, not a political expert. So I don’t know what will happen and speculating about it will not add any value. However one thing is clear: War is always a catastrophe, not justified by anything and in the end, everyone is a loser (or dead). Everyone will pay a price, someway or another.

For good measure, I will add some general remarks about Putin and Ukraine at the end.

Russian stocks: No, no and again no

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Some links & “3000”

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A few days ago, the number of subscribers passed the 3000 mark. I feel extremely proud and also humbled that 3000 persons across the globe read my stuff on a regular basis despite all the typos and bad grammar. Thank you very much, this is really a great motivation to keep going !!!

Sprucepoint Capital has released a short report on c3.ai

Great deck from Altafox about its activist campaign for/against Hasbro

Asiancenturystocks has a very comprehensive overview on Asian stock markets

Deep insights into Amazon’s ad business (these ads by the way annoy me big time as “power user”)

A good reminder from Ben Inker (GMO) on what mistakes to avoid in this market

Nice write-up on my former portfolio investment Installux

Ben Evans summarizes 10 big questions for the Tech sector in 2022 (and beyond)

All Danish Shares part 2 – Nr. 11-20

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And on we go with the second post after kicking off last week. Two of the stocks already appeared in the blog some years ago and overall, these ten candidates yielded two “Watch list” candidates.

11. Conferize A/S

Conferize is a 15 mn EUR market cap company that seems to develop software for managing conferences. The company seems to be still “pre revenue”. I do not fully understand why a pre revenue Software company is public, but I’ll happily “pass” without further analysis.

12. Jobindex A/S

Jobindex is a 220 mn EUR market cap company that operates an online Job board which covers all Danish vacancies. The company has been growing nicely until 2018 but then stagnated already in 2019. The chart reflects this to a certain extent, the share price now is similar to the price during the “high growth” phase:

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