Category Archives: Anlage Philosophie

Nikola Motor Company (NKLA) – The SPAC is back (plus a magic money machine).

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Intro

Nikola is a company I haven’t heard of until a week ago or so. It is a pre-revenue, prototype-product company that according to their web site develops Hydrogen fueled and electric trucks.

The VC past

The company did a Series D funding round in September last year at a pre-money valuation of 3 bn USD which is quite remarkable for such an early stage company and they seem to have received ~500 mn USD from corporate partners CNH, Bosch and Hanwa. Although the valuation would raise some eyebrows, this would be still not considered super crazy by VC standards if they have a great team and great technology assets.

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Panic Journal 8 – “Easy dancing”

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It has been almost one month since my last panic journal post and a lot has happened in between. The stock market has roared back like crazy and everyone seems to ask themselves when they look at YTD charts and compare it with unemployment numbers and GDP “growth”: What the hell is going on ? Is this the next “Bubble” ? Are people crazy ?

Of course I can’t explain what is going on either but at least from my perspective three main topics stand out that I did not expect to such an extend and seem to be fundamentally positive surprises compared to a worst case scenario:

  1. Central banks and Governments have acted more quickly and more radical than anyone thought
  2. The “Dance” after the “Hammer” so far looks a lot easier that envisaged
  3. A vaccine might come earlier than initially expected

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Interactive Brokers (Sell), Sino AG (Buy), Tiffany & Co (Buy)

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Interactive Brokers:

As mentioned in the comments on the previous post, I sold my Interactive Broker stocks.  Why ? Mainly because of the following reasons:

  • although I still think that it is a very good company, I reconsidered some of my assumptions after reading the “Chuck” Schwab autobiography
  • Despite the fact that the  Covid-19 crisis seems to have driven an increase in new accounts and trading commissions, the long term effects of lower interest rates (and margins) will be significant as interest margins are the main driver of profitability in the mid- to long term. My current scenario is that interest rates will remain very low even in the US for a very long time.

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All German Shares Part 24 (Nr. 501-525)

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Another 25 randomly selected German stocks including four stocks this time who made it onto my “watch” list:

501. Fair Value REIT

Fair Value is a listed REIT with 104 mn EUR market cap. The portfolio includes a >50% share of retail objects which will be extremely challenged. The stock price has dropped a little but not much. “pass”.

502. Fortec Elektronik AG

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Agfa Gevaert (ISIN BE0003755692) -An Ugly Duck with some Golden Eggs in its nest ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Intro

Agfa-Gevaert was on my research list for some time now. Fellow blogger Undervalued Shares than triggered my renewed interest with their post from a few days ago and one of my best “Special situations” ideas ever was a Belgian company (Sapec).

I’ll try to summarize the part of the post that deals with Agfa:

  • Active Ownership, a relatively new but successful German activist fund (Stada) has build up a position (~14%] and board membership (actually the Chairman) in Agfa Gevaert, the traditional German-Belgian film / imaging company
  • Despite having some interesting assets, Agfa didn’t create shareholder value over a long time
  • opaque reporting and a 1 bn EUR pension liability made it unattractive to stock market investors
  • In 2020, Agfa managed to sell part of its Healthcare IT segment for 975 mn EUR
  • Initially, the stock went up to ~5 EUR based on the first info on the sale but hasn’t fully recovered yet

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All German Shares part 22 (Nr. 451-475)

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Another batch of 25 randomly selected German stocks. This time I identified 5 candidates for my watch list amongst them.

451. Biofrontera AG

BioFrontera is a 151 mn EUR market cap specialty pharma company in the field of dermatology (skin cancer). The company actually has a product in the market and shows decent grows, especially in Germany and the US. The company is still loss making in the first 9M 2019, but the loss narrowed significantly. The “Corona Crash” pushed the stock price back to before sales went up:

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Panik Journal 7 – “Where is my bailout” and Behavioral Change

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My last “panic Journal” post is now 3 weeks old. What has changed ? If I look at my learnings, not much. We still don’t really know how many people have been infected, how it transmits, what is the actual cause of the deaths, if there are treatments and when we will have a vaccine. The only major difference is that toilet paper now is available in my local drug store every day and and stocks are even higher than back then.

It took me so long to write this, because every time I start to write something, I discover that someone else has already written about it, so I try to focus on stuff I haven’t seen elsewhere.

Where is my bailout (Leoni, Adidas, Start ups, Car purchase incentives)

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FBD Holdings Plc- Welcome back to Ireland !!!

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advise. Please do your own research !!!

Background:

FBD is a local Irish Insurance company that I first wrote about in early 2015 when the stock look cheap. Luckily I didn’t invest back then as 7 months later FBD got already in trouble mainly due to under reserving plus another few skeletons in the closet. A month later, Prem Watsa came to the rescue with a slightly unusual deal structure.

What caught my eye now again (thanks to a friend mentioning the stock) is the relatively weak share price combined with super strong 2019 results and no bounce back from the Covid-19 crisis levels:

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