After the first post about European spin-offs, I decided that starting in 2009 does not generate enough entries for a real back test.
So I went back until January 1st 2005 for a first back test of the success of spin-offs.
I filtered all spin-offs starting from 1.1.2005 with the following criteria:
Just right before Christmas, Hornbach Baumarkt issued its Q3 report.
Hornbach again showed an outstanding quarter:
As well as substantially boosting its sales, Germany’s fourth-largest DIY group also achieved disproportionate earnings growth in the first nine months of the 2011/2012 financial year (March 1 to November 30, 2011). While the Hornbach Group increased its ninemonth sales by 6.6 percent to Euro 2,581.9 million, operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period grew by 12.8 percent to Euro 191.2 million. The DIY megastores with garden centers in Germany were once again the key growth driver. With cumulative like-for-like sales growth of 6.0 percent, these continued to outperform their sector by a clear margin.
Inspired by Joel Greenblatt’s Book “You can be a stock market genius”, I wanted to take a quick look at the most recent European Spin offs.
As a first sample I searched for all Spin Offs which were announced since 01.01.2009 in Western Europe and completed until today.
Ich hatte ja ein paar mal über Solar Millenium gepostet und wenn ich gekonnt hätte, wäre ich auch die Anleihe Short gegangen.
Jetzt hat es nach Solon auch Solar Millenium erwischt:
8 days ago, I commented on the ECB announcement which in my opinion was totally misinterpreted by the market:
My summary was as follows:
Summary: In my opinion, the market severely under estimates the potential impact of the announced measures. For many banks this will be the lifeline to survive the next few years and potentially even Governements could gain a „back door access“ to the ECB. I am not saying that banks are a „buy“ right now, but this should take a lot of stress outof the EUR banking system.
Im Eingangsposting zu den WESTLB GS hatte ich ja verschiedene Gründe angeführt, warum ich einen hohen HGB Verlust (und eine damit einhergehende starke Abschriebung des GS) für eher unwahrscheinlich halte.
Insbesondere folgende Vorhersage ist nun mehr oder weniger schon so eingetreten: