Category Archives: Bilanzanalyse

Admiral post mortem & Sto SE 6M results

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Admiral Post mortem:

A few weeks ago, after the 6M numbers, I sold out of Admiral, after holding it for ~10 years. I already had updated my thesis in 2022 where I “re-undwerwrote” the stock for 3 more years.

So why now selling it just after 2 years ? First, the stock price nicely recovered from 17,5 GBP per share 2 years ago to around 30 GBP when I sold after the earnings announcement. Secondly, it seems that Admiral is really not able to “copy&paste” its formula outside the UK.

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A quick look into the Lineage Cold Storage IPO prospectus

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As mentioned in my STEF write-up, US Cold Storage company Lineage went public a few days ago and was able to do so quite successfully.

As IPO prospectuses often contain some quite interesting information, I wanted to quickly look through and extract what I find interesting. Especially on a hot day like today, reading a lot about cold storage is quite comforting 😉

Valuation

Let’s look at the new price point we got through the IPO. Unfortunately, Lineage Cold Storage is not yet available in TIKR, so let’s hae a quick look at comps “by hand”:

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EVS Broadcast SA – A Hidden Global Champion “Breaking free from the Van” with Software & AI at a Bargain Price

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

As always with my more detailed writeups, I will focus on the gernal section in the post and attach the full pdf for anyone interested in the details.

  1. Elevator pitch:

EVS Broadcast is a 400 mn EUR market cap Belgian technology firm that is the global leader in Live sports broadcasting/production technology that once earned margins higher than Nvidia does today.

After a relatively long phase of stagnation from 2008-2019, EVS seems to have found its path to decent growth again under new management. The main driver is a new technology cycle that will shift the product offerings from hardware focused solutions to more Software/Saas products and a move into adjacent markets (Studio production).

For a company with EBIT margins > 20%, capital return >20%, net cash and a targeted growth rate of 10% p.a. (which they have achieved since 2019), the current valuation of ~9x EV EBIT or 10-11x P/E is dirt cheap and offers considerable upside for the patient investor.

As EVS has been working on AI solutions since at least 2017 and has already functioning products to show, one gets any potential “AI upside optionality” for absolutely free. 

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The German Mittelstand is maybe Down but not Out: Hermle AG – Hidden Automation Champion from the â€œLĂ€ndle”

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As always with my longer write-ups, I will attach the full PDF below. In the post itself I will focus on the Exec summary, Pro’s and Con’s and the conclusion. And the Bonus Track of course at the end.

Executive Summary

Hermle AG is a typical “Hidden Champion” Mittelstand company from Southwestern Germany (Baden Wuerttemberg, the “LĂ€ndle”) that managed to carve out a very nice niche in 5- Axis CNC machines and connected production automation.  The company is able to earn industry leading EBIT margins (>20%) and Returns on Capital (>30%), has a Fortress Balance sheet and trades only at a relatively modest valuation of around 7,7x EV/EBIT.

The business is exposed to the economic cycle, but a combination of competitive advantages, a flexible cost base and a structural tailwind (Automation) make the stock attractive in the mid- to long term

Full PDF can be read & downloaded here:

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Amadeus Fire AG (AAD.GR) – Come on and rock me Amadeus !!!

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

As in the previous write-ups, the full 13 page document is attached as PDF. Within the post I will present the Elevator Pitch, Stock Price/Valuation, Risks and Summary. And of course a bonus music track !!

Elevator Pitch:

Amadeus Fire is a 590 mn EUR market cap small cap business service company that offers temporary staffing and training for finance and IT professionals in Germany. The company is well managed, has a strong track record with 10% p.a. growth for many years, decent double digit margins, high returns on capital and strong cash generation combined with a clear capital allocation strategy. The current valuation at an EV/EBIT below 10x and an even lower EV/FCF at looks quite compelling for such a boring but high quality company. GARP at it’s best in my opinion.

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All Belgian Shares Part 2 – Nr. 21-40

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And on we go with our random walk through the Belgian Stock market after part 1 in January. This time the random generator selected 20 quite diverse stocks, from which 5 made it onto the preliminary watch ist. One of them is a “sexy stock” in a very special way. Enjoy !!!

21. Immo Moury SCA

Immo Moury is a 15 mn EUR market cap real estate company (REIT) that according to TIKR trades at a P/E of 6 and P/Book to 0,57 and has clearly seen better days:

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Eurokai KGaA (ISIN DE0005706535) – Playing the “Time arbitrage game” with the possibly cheapest Port Stock in the World 

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

Some reason for not reading this post:

  • You have already posted YTD Performance numbers on FinTwit
  • You don’t like capital intensive stocks
  • You don’t like cyclical stocks
  • You prefer stocks that have positive share price and/or fundamental momentum
  • You require short term catalysts/Share buy backs/activists etc.
  • You like simple businesses with simple structures
  • You think Germany/Italy/Europe is going down the drain anyway

In such a case, do yourself and myself a favor and move on.

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Samse Group (ISIN FR0000060071) – A Hidden French Compounder that is as exciting as watching Paint dry ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

As in the past, due to the bad WordPress editor, I’ll post a summary here and attach the full write-up as PDF.

After teasing a new position in the Nabaltec “Post Mortem”, I proudly present the next (hopefully) super boring company for my boring portfolio.

SAMSE SA is a French company that distributes building materials to “professional” customers like contractors, craftsmen etc. It also has a smaller “Direct to consumer” DYI store segment, which represents around 20% of sales. Samse is active only in France and No. 2 after Saint Gobain, which, however is much bigger even only in this specific sector (2000 outlets vs. 350).

Here is an overview of relevant “KPIs” at a share price of 190 EUR (time of writing):

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DEME (ISIN BE0974413453) – A Contrarian Opportunity to bet on Offshore Wind

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Expectation management: If you like either/or: super cheap companies /  high margins / capital light / short term catalysts / recurring revenue / low earning volatility / High dividends / share buy backs / companies with products in the supermarket  → THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.

Elevator pitch:

DEME, a Belgian Marine Engineering Group, is a contrarian, secular growth /mean reversion story. Current results are noisy, but growth, especially in offshore wind installation is intact and accelerating. A combination of strong growth and improving margins could lead to a tripling of EPS over the next 5 years.

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