All Norwegian Shares part 3 – Nr. 31-45

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And another 15 Norwegian stocks chosen from my Google Sheets random number function.This time only one “watch” candidate and not even a strong oe. C’mon Norway, you can do better !!!

31. KMC Properties

As the name indicates, this 212 mn EUR market cap company (IPO in 2021) is active in property. They specialize in industrial and logistics property that seems to grow quickly through purchases. The share price hasn’t done much since the IPO and seems to tarde close to NAV . “Pass”.

32. Argeo

Argeo is an 8 mn EUR market cap company that was IPOed in 2021. The company is active in fancy sounding seismic analysis activities. Unfortunately, the fancy technology does not translate in earnings but increasing losses. The stock lost more than -75% from the IPO and the company just had to issue new shares. “Pass”.

33. Hexagon Purus

Hexagon Purus ASA, a 520 mn EUR market cap stock sounds like an “Energy transation dream”: Accroding to the Euronext page, the company  “is specialized in the manufacture and marketing of Type 4 composite tanks for high pressure hydrogen storage. The group also manufactures battery packs, electric drive systems, components and battery systems for electric and hybrid vehicles.”

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Reinsurance follow up: SCOR SE- Too cheap to ignore a P/E of 6x for 2023 ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

Background:

After looking at Hannover Re and Munich Re a few days ago, I decided to include also Swiss Re and Scor in my analysis. Unfortunately, for both of these players, the CAGRs for profit etc. are meaningless as they were making losses in 2022. However, especially for SCOR I found a few numbers very interesting:

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Value & Opportunity 2022 Performance Review & 2023 Outlook

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2022 overview

2022 was a in absolute terms pretty bad, in relative terms however very lucky. The Value & Opportunity portfolio lost  -3,9 % (including dividends, no taxes, AOC fund as of 30.09.) against -16,7% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50(25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all performance indices including Dividends).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in 2020:

Partners Fund TGV: -33,6% (30.12.) 
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -19,2% (30.12.)
Squad European Convictions -14,1% (30.12.)
Ennismore European Smaller Cos (30.12.) +3,8% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen (30.12.) -17,3%
Greiff Special Situation (30.12.) -3,5%
Squad Aguja Special Situation (30.12.) -19,2%
Paladin One (30.12.) -19,1%

Most of the “Long only funds” in the peer Group were clustered together near the benchmark in a tight range of -14% to -19%. The only positive peer was Ennismore, which is a long/short funds.

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All Norwegian Share part 2 – Nr. 16-30

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There is nothing better than starting a year with looking at 15 “fresh” and randomly selected Norwegian shares. Three of them made it onto my preliminary watch list. As always, I am more than happy to get my reader’s input in the comments as these are quite rapid analysis and I most likely miss a lot of interesting things. Let’s go: 

16. Melhus Sparebank

Melhus is a 43 mn EUR market cap local savings bank. The stock trades at around 10x earnings, pays a 6% dividend but hasn’t moved much for the last 20 years. EPS is oscillating in a range since 20 years, too. “Pass”.

17. Europris ASA

Europris is a 1,1 bn EUR market cap retailer that sells “discount variety” items in Norway, both through a chain of 300 stores but also online.

AT 12x earnings, the stock doesn’t look expensive and according to TIKR, they did 10x their EBIT since 2013. The company IPOed in 2015 and looking at the chart, they seem to have done quite well for a retailer, especially in the last few years despite Covid Read more

Hannover Re: An overlooked Reinsurance Compounder & Comparison with Munich Re

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Spoiler: This rather long post contains no actionable investment ideas.

Background:

Hannover Re is a stock that for some reason I have ignored for some time although I consider Insurance stocks as part of my circle of competence. Why did I ignore them ? I was always put off from the ownership structure. Hannover Re is majority owned by Talanx, which itself is also listed. Talanx again is owned ~80% bei HDI, which is owned by …I don’t know.

Looking at the chart, I should have considered them earlier: Over the past 15 years, Hannover outperformed the larger and better known peers like Munich Re and Swiss Re by a wide margin and ties with Berkshire (before FX):

hannover 15 years

This is very interesting, considering that Hannover Re is only the No. 3 global Reinsurer and Berkshire only number 5. Absolute size doesn’t seem the drivig factor for shareholder returns in the Reinsurance industry.

Deep dive Comparison: Hannover Re vs. Munich Re

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My 23 Investments for 2023

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Following an annual tradition, I’ll try to review my current portfolio at least once a year by writing short summaries for each individual position.  14 of the 28 positions from last year are still in the portfolio and I have added 9 new positions. That tunover has been mainly driven by the events in 2022, which have changed fundamentals for quite a few of the old positions, but also opened up opportunities for new ones. A more comprehensive Performance review will follow in early January 2023.

A short user guide:

My style of investing mostly concentrates on 20-30 small/midcap stocks that in my opinion have a good return/risk profile over the next 3-5 years. Many of this stocks are not household names and are unlikely to make spectacular gains in a single year. Many of them look interesting only after the second or third glance. So if you are looking for a “Hot stock for 2023”, this post won’t help you much.

And always remember: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

The summaries of the previous years can be found here:

My 28 Investments for 2022
My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021
My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

Let’s go:

1. TFF Group (Portfolio weight 8,1%, Holding period 12,0 years)

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Listed Venture Capital part 3 – The “Tale of the two Vostoks” & UK Vehicles

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Background:

Back in the good old days (2018) when Venture and Growth investing were still sexy, I looked into the world of “listed Venture Capital”:

Part 1: HOW TO INVEST INTO VENTURE CAPITAL – LISTED VEHICLES (PART 1)
Part 2: HOW TO INVEST INTO VENTURE CAPITAL PART 2: AUGMENTUM, VOSTOK & OTHERS

Inititally I bought into Kinnevik, Vostok New Ventures (renamed to VNV) and Vostok Emerging Finance (now VEF), however, I sold both Kinnevik and later VNV (at smallish profits) and only held onto VEF. This is how the Group has performed since then (november 2018) (Prices in local currency only, no dividends/Spin-offs):

Listed VC

Unfortunately I could not find continuous comparison charts for VNV and VEF, but almost all of the stocks at first struggled in 2019, only to go bonkers in late 2021 and then crumble in 2022.

Initially I cursed myself for selling too early , but now it looks super smart to only keep one that is a “winner”.

The tale of the two “Vostoks”: Why so different ?

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Some links

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Tyler Cowen on who might win and how might lose from the advance of AI

A short history of the Video Game industry and the Activision/Microsoft case from Stratechery

The new Howard Marks memo “Sea change”

Mauboussin on Capital Allocation

Whenever Joel Greenblatt is speaking, one should listen (and watch)

Nature magazine with a good summary on the recent Nuclear Fusion “breakthrough”

Marc Rubinstein on retail banking and Vernon Hill (Commerce Bank, Metro bank)

 

 

 

 

Value & Opportunity 12th Anniversary

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12 years

Every year on December 15th, the blog celebrates another anniversary, because on that day in December 2010, the blog went live for the first time. (Edit: and again this should have gone out yesterday….).

As always there will be a separate performance portfolio review in the beginning of January.  In human years, 12 is still early teenage years, in “Whisky years”, 12 years is already a decent age. However, in Blogging time, 12 years rather feels like being the Grandfather of stock blogging. A lot of the fellow stock bloggers from back then have vanished or moved to social media. Interestingly there is now a new wave of bloggers mostly on Substack.

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DCC Plc (ISIN IE0002424939) – Extremely unsexy Business meets sexy Track Record at a super sexy Valuation

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR ON RESEARCH !!

As this post has become quite long, here is the Elevator pitch:

DCC Ltd, a 4,3 bn market cap UK listed, Ireland based company at a first look like a very boring, unremarkable collection of very boring distribution businesses. A second (or third) glance however, reveals a very stable , well managed distribution company that has been compounding EPS at double digit growth rates for the last 28 years and can be bought for a very modest valuation of ~10x earnings. The company clearly faces some challenges but this might be more than outweighed by very good capital allocation, company culture and growth opportunities.

  1. History

DCC has a very interesting history. It was founded actually as some kind of Venture Capital company in 1976 in Ireland and was led for 32 ears by founder Jim Flavin. After turning into an operating company, DCC went public in 1994. Over the years they acquired a lot of businesses, many of those where distribution businesses from oil majors but also in other areas such as health care and technology components.

What I find extremely impressive is their track record since they listed in 1994 and is available in each annual report:

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