All Danish part 16 – Nr. 151-160

Posted on by 4 comments

And on we go relentlessly. Another 10 randomly selected Danish stocks, with only 16 more to go. This time, 3 of them made it onto the preliminary watch list. Enjoy !!

151. Nordea

Nordea is a 36 bn EUR market cap “full service” bank and asset manager active in the Nordics. As many other Scandinavian financial institutions, Nordea is doing quite well compared to its European peers, managing ROEs of around 7-11% over the past 10 years.

The longer term share price development is nevertheless quite disappointing, showing little to no value creation:

Nordea

Read more

Some links

Posted on by One comment

Profit Hunting has a nice write-up on Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (Mexico Stock Exchange)

In contrast to growth rates, high profitability seems to be very persistent over time

Good timeline and summary of the FTX & SBF drama. And the FT on “CZ”, the arch enemy of SBF.

Morgan Housel with some very good advice on how to write

Interesting long read on ETF Arbitrage behemoth Jane Street (former employer of SBF)

ByteDance, the parent of TikTok is an interesting example how non-traded equity stakes can be valued wildly different across investors

Verus on Interest rates and the attractiveness of Bank stocks (German)

All Danish Shares part 15 – Nr. 141-150

Posted on by One comment

What is the best way to relax after a crazy day at the stock market ? Exactly, looking at 10 randomly selected stocks from Denmark. This time, two candidates made it onto the watch list. Enjoy !

141. SKAKO

Skako is a 22 mn EUR market cap company that is manufacturing machinery for the cement and construction industry. The company is not expensive (P/E of 11), has Ok returns on capital and OK margins. However, the company seems to stagnate since more than 10 years and the coming construction downturn will clearly not help their business. “Pass”.

142. United Int. Enterprises

UIE is a 844 mn market cap company that holds several minority stakes, the largest being a palm oil and coconut plantation in Malaysia (a listed company named United Plantations) plus a stake in a Swedish company called Schörling. The company is headquartered in Malta.

Read more

Royal Unibrew (ISIN DK0060634707) – A High Quality Beverage Compounder at a reasonable price ?

Posted on by 25 comments

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

The company:

Royal Unibrew logo

Royal Unibrew is a Danish Beverage company that I “discovered” during my journey through all Danish shares some weeks ago (too expensive back then but “watch”). I had also seen them some months ago in the Profitlich&Schmidlin portfolio.

The company is mostly active in Scandinavia and the Baltics where they have offerings in all areas (including a contribution agreement with Pepsi), whereas in some countries (France, Germany, Italy), they are running a focused niche strategy. Despite the name, Beer is only around 35% of their offerings (as of 2021), the other 65% are mostly non-alcoholic drinks from soft drinks to water and energy drinks.

Read more

Some links

Posted on by Leave a comment

Must read: Prof. Damodaran on Free Cash Flow calculation (Spoiler: Don’t underestimate P/E and EV/EBIT measures)

Matt Levine with his epic “article” on all things Crypto

A good collection of recent and coming spin-offs

Twitter is a “disaster clown car company” with Elon Musk in charge.

Klement on Infrastructure investments and inflation protection

Ben Thompson (Stratechery) with a deep dive on the chip industry and American sanctions

Jim Chanos is always worth watching and listening to

Exmar – Update Q3 numbers: “Thank you for the Tango” & SELL

Posted on by 12 comments

Exmar was a special situation that I entered in August, following a surprising significant asset sale (a LNG liquification platform called “Tango”)

Yesterday evening, Exmar reported Q3 numbers including the final numbers on the ENI transaction. A few points that I found important:

  • Cash proceeds for the ENI transaction were slightly higher (+13 mn) compared to my base case
  • Net cash at company level however was -23 mn lower than I had calculated
  • Interestingly, Exmar only reported net cash at Group level, not gross cash at Holding level
  • The remaining core LPG business seems to do quite well, with sales up ~6% and EBIT up ~50%
  • They didn’t provide explicit number on how much they earn with the remaining regasification unit that is operating since August. The earnings of the “infrastructure” segment are really hard to read
  • Next week, there will be an extraordinary shareholder meeting declaring a 0,95 EUR dividend per share

The share price has done quite well. At the time of writing, Exmar traded at 10,20 EUR per share, an increase of almost exactly 1/3 vs. when I entered the position and even better in relative terms:

Read more

All Danish Shares part 14 – Nr. 131-140

Posted on by 4 comments

A new week, a new batch of 10 randomly selected Danish shares. This time two shares made it onto the preliminary “watch” list. I also need to think about which country i will invade look at next.

131. NTR Holding

NTR seems to be a defunct shell with a market cap of 1,5 mn EUR. “Pass”.

132. Orsted

Orsted is a 32,5 bn EUR market cap energy that has already been part of the V&O portfolio. Orsted, which used to be called Dong Energy is a unique story: it is the first Oil and Gas company that divested more or less completely from oil and gas and focuses only on renewable energy.

Orsted is a Pioneer in renewables and is both, developing an running renewables projects with a focus on offshore wind on a global basis. Looking at the stock chart, we can see that the stock had a good run until 2021 but is since then drifting lower:

Read more

Book review: “The Star Builders: Nuclear Fusion and the Race to Power the Planet” – Arthur Turrell

Posted on by Leave a comment

star builders

Those readers that share my fascination with Science Fiction books know the plot: In the (far) future, humans have solved Nuclear Fusion and with that unlimited energy is then able to fly to the stars.

“The Star Builders” however is not a Science Fiction book but the attempt to analyze the current status of this technology, written by a “serious” Physics researcher.

Read more

All Danish Shares part 13 – Nr. 121-130

Posted on by 2 comments

Slowly we are reaching the end of my Journey through Denmark. Another 10 randomly selected stocks, this time yielding two “watch” candidates. Only 48 now outstanding. Enjoy !!!

121. Strategic Investments A/S

Strategic Investments is a 52 mn EUR market cap investment vehicle that invests into securities, private equity and real estate. Investor relations is in Danish only. Looking at the share price, there doesn’t seem to happen a lot of value creation here. “Pass”.

122. Copyright Agent

Copyright Agent is a 2 mn EUR market company that “is a legal-tech company that helps professional content creators to ensure their original work against misuse by other companies.”  This 2021 IPO is actually growing quite fast, but losses are growing faster with an EBIT margin of -50%. Cash at June 30th at the current burn rate only lasts until year end 2022, so capital increase will be coming soon (or bankruptcy). “Pass”.

123. Gyldendal

Gyldendal is a 125 mn EUR market cap book publisher and operator of book stores. After doing nothing for 20 years, the Stock saw some interesting price action in 2021 which has now mostly reversed:

Read more

Some links

Posted on by 3 comments

Molten Ventures is another beaten up listed VC stock

A critical look into the Mega Buyout (and mega leverage) of Citrix

Although it’s from McKinsey, this interview with VC legend Bill Gurley is really good

Extremely interesting analysis of the accuracy of analyst forecasts

Ben Thompson (Startechery) sees Microsoft as the “real VR” company

Interesting deep dive into the current state of Softbank

Very nice write-up on Hypoport from Verus (German language)

« Older Entries Recent Entries »