Tag Archives: Novo Nordisk

Bachem AG: Riding the “Golden Age of Peptides” with this Hidden Champion from Switzerland

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

  1. Elevator pitch:

Bachem is a 5 bn CHF market cap Swiss listed pharmaceutical/specialty chemical company which is the global market leader in the (outsourcing of) manufacturing of Polypeptide, a complex molecule and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) that is, among others, behind the blockbuster drugs Wegovy, Ozempic etc. Demand for those molecules is poised to grow exponentially over the coming 5-7 years (15% market growth p.a. ,“Golden age of Peptides”). 

This growth is driven by several different fundamental growth drivers which increases the certainty of the projected growth rates. The complexity of the production process in addition to regulatory requirements and “Anti China” legislation in the US provides a decent “moat” for the coming years which makes Bachem, despite its relatively high valuation (28×2026 P/E), a very interesting investment case on a 3-5 year time horizon in my opinion.

It is clearly not an investment for everyone, but for more growth oriented investors, Bachem could be an interesting stock to look at. In my case, it is a 3% position for my small “quality growth bucket” alongside Wise and Chapters Group.

  1. Some editorial remarks:

Initially, I planned to write up and invest into both Bachem and its Swiss listed competitor Polypeptide Group. Due to vacation time and the rumour of a PE take-over, Polypeptide share price increased by +50% since I started to deep dive into those two companies which made the stock less attractive. Bachem only went up like +15% so  I therefore concentrate on Bachem.

In addition, I just wanted to make it clear that I write “by hand” but I do use several AI tools during my research (NotebookLM, Claude Cowork). You will find some output of AI models here in this write-up, as for some cases (i.e. making pictures), AI has just much better capabilities than I have.

In any case, I do expect a lot of critical comments on this.

  1. Soundtrack:

In order for my readers to actually listen to the obligatory soundtrack during reading the write-up, I’ll post it right at this spot. I think “Golden Years” from David Bowie is the perfect Soundtrack for this

David Bowie Golden Years

And here is the complete write-up (28 pages), Have fun !!!

Bachem 21.04.2026Download

Novo Nordisk – 9 years later

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Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVISE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

9 years, three encounters

One of the great aspects of writing an online blog for a long time is that I can look back and find something I have written a long time ago which I would have otherwise long forgotten.

In Novo Nordisk’s case I have looked at the company almost exactly 9 years ago, mostly because Rob Vinall was invested back then (he sold since).

Initially I looked at them in August 2016 and then again a few months later when the share price had declined even further (There was a stock split of 2:1 in 2023, so the per share numbers in my old posts need to be divided by 2).

In the end, I did nothing, although my second post basically marked the low point in the stock price almost to the exact day.

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Novo Nordisk (DK0060534915)- What now ?

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When I looked at Novo Nordisk 3 months ago, I found the stock too expensive at 315 DKK/share. That was my summary back then:

What could make the stock interesting again ?

Well, that’s simple: Either a lower stock price or higher growth. Maybe management has low-balled growth ? Who knows. Maybe the market over reacts if the next quarters don’t look that good ? According to Bloomberg, analysts officially still expect double-digit earnings per share growth well into 2019. Even adjusting for share buy backs, this will be difficult to achieve based on the growth rates communicated by management.

For me, the stock would become more interesting at around 250 DKK under the current growth assumptions. I think I would also like to see more negative comments from analysts.

With the stock now trading at ~229 DKK, it is clearly necessary to revisit the stock again.

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