9 Years of Valueandopportunity – “The more I learn the less I know”
Another “blogging year” has passed and Valueandopportunity has been now around for 9 years since its beginning as a German Speaking blog on “Value Investingg”.
Again a big thank you to all readers who continue to read and especially to those who contribute by constructive commenting and emailing me. Knowing that a few thousand investors find it somehow interesting what I write about is a great motivation.
As mentioned last year on the 8th anniversary, the time that I can commit to this effort is now quite limited. Still I managed to mostly send out weekly links plus some hopefully interesting posts. On the negative side, I didn’t reach my goal of looking at least at 1-2 investment opportunities in detail per month as I planned. I only managed to look at 9 stocks/ideas in more detail.
On the other hand, I started the “All German Stock” series in fall which is a real fun project and brings me back to my “roots” as German Small Cap investor. Plus, I managed to read some really great books this year which are now among my all time favorites (see below).
What I learned this year (hint: I know less than I thought)
The biggest theme for me this year was that I found out that I actually don’t know that much about investing and business (and life in general). 2-3 years ago I would confidently say that I know almost anything one needs to know in investing. I had read all the Buffett annual reports plus many books on Buffett and Munger, so what more do I need ?
Now I am not so sure anymore. For instance, I am currently just scratching the surface to understand where real organic growth comes from. Yes, there is the moat thing and everything, but the big growth stories of the last few decades didn’t start with moats. They started with some new, disruptive technology, network effects etc. I totally missed software companies. I never invested into Amazon although I am a very active client now since 1999 (thank you Amazon for reminding me each time I log in).
I have a lot of catching up to do in this respect. Any yes, there is clearly a bubble in some areas but a lot of the current economic growth is coming from this area. A few years ago I would have thought that negative interest rates are just not possible. Now the world seems to live quite fine with this, thank you.
I also found out the hard way over the last 1-2 years that assuming whatever you learned in your home market works easily everywhere is not a good strategy. Cars.com was another proof (after Silver Chef) that extending the circle of competence across borders is really hard work and takes time and effort.
On a personal level, I have been learning a lot about parenting. To be honest, I haven’t really appreciated that much before how much work (and fun) raising kids can be. These days I much more appreciate the effort of parents on raising a family than I did a few years ago.
Blogging Goals for next year
This time I will be a little bit more cautious with goals. Main goals are:
– keep up weekly links post
– Finish “All German Shares”
– analyze at least one stock/investment per month
– try to read as many books as possible
Blogging Highlights 2019
All German shares series
- Part 1 (1-10)
- Part 2 (11-20)
- Part 3 (21-30)
- Part 4 (31-40)
- Part 5 (41-50)
- Part 6 (51-60)
- Part 7 (61-75)
- Part 8 (76-100)
- Part 9 (101-125)
- Part 10 (126-150)
- Part 11 (151-175)
Stock idea posts:
- April SA special situation
- KAS Bank special situation
- Zur Rose AG
- Innogy Special situation
- Deutsche Familienversicherung
- Osram Special Situation
- Thoughts on the WeWork IPO
- German Startups Group
- James Clear – Atomic Habits
- Merger Masters – Tales of Arbitrage
- Scott Kupor – Secrets of Sand Hill Road
- Super Pumped – The Battle for Uber
- Greg Zuckerman – The man who solved the markets
Again thanks for the attention. There will be a seperate Year end review post as usual and if time allows a xx investment fro 2020 post as well.