Category Archives: Uncategorized

Deutsche Familienversicherung AG: Europe’s leading Insurtech or “Lipstick” on an ordinary Insurance company ?

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Deutsche Familenversicherung AG (DFV) IPOed end of last year and claims to be the first stock listed “Insuretech” in Europe. The IPO was only successful at the second attempt but still they made it. In their investor presentation they even call themselves “Europe’s leading Insurtech” which is a pretty bold claim.

Excursion: What does Insurtech /Fintech mean ? And what does digital mean ?

There is clearly not general valid definition of Fintech /insurtech, but looking at the Fintech space, one would characterize these companies as technology driven companies that use technology to do things faster, cheaper and better than thier “ordinary” competitors.

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Special situation: Innogy Tendered Shares (IGYB) -(very) Cheap Optionality ?

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Background:
The guys from Paladin AM have outlined the Innogy case very nicely on their blog (in German): Intro & Update

I’ll try to summarize it in my own words:

Innogy, the renewable energy spin-off of RWE is in the process of being taken over by competitor E.ON. E.ON in 2018 had announced to purchase the 77% stake of RWE and has offered on a voluntary basis 36.74 EUR per share which, plus the upcoming dividend adds up to a total consideration of 38,14 EUR per share before tax. The closing of the transaction is subject to a relatively complex regulatory approval process which is already facing some delays. Most experts however think that the transaction will be ultimately approved.

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Performance review Q1 2019

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In the first Quarter 2019, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained 8,3% (including dividends, no taxes) against 11.9% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog.

Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in Q1 2019:

Partners Fund TGV: 10.63% *

Profitlich/Schmidlin: +8,45%
Squad European Convictions +6,44%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos +6.09% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen +0,37%
Evermore Global Value  +6,54% (USD)
Greiff Special Situation +2,56%
Squad Aguja Special Situation +6,56%

*Since inception (01.01.2011), this translates into +173,2% vs. 86,4%  for the Benchmark.

Q1 2019 transactions

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Some links

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An interesting collection of investment ideas are “SumZero’s top stocks for 2019”

Seth Klarman these days is concerned about capitalism as such

It’s maybe a good idea to stay away from industries where everyone seems to be a winner

The Bank of the bAnks (BIS) surprisingly doesn’t think that Proof-ofWork Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will work in the long run.

Elliott has released a plan how to make EBAY “great again”….

Forager likes Fast Fashion Retailer Glasson

A great collection of Q4 2018 fund letters 

Some links

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Farnam Street on how not to be stupid plus its 2018 review

And ValueInvestingWorld with a fitting “final checklist” before making an investment decision

An interesting view on how “factors” like size, EV/EBIT etc. performed in 2018

Honeywell looks potentially interesting after the spin-off as well as ARLO

Good feature on Paul Singer (Elliott)

Four blogs with totally “off the beaten track” portfolios have posted 2018 reviews:
– GlobalStockPicking
– Alpha Vulture
– Value Investing France
– Clark Street Value

David Einhorn had a catastrophic year in 2018

Some links

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Don’t miss: Stratechery 2018 review

Some very insightful investing lessons from Morgan Housel 

GlobalStockPicking with a nice write-up on HK based Modern Dental Group

A quick look at the upcoming United Technologies Spin-off

Great collection of 50 reasons why most of “us” are not thinking long term enough

Farnam’s Street 2018 letter to its readers

A quick look at offshore drillers (Rowan, Diamond)

Plus a Christmas Bonus: Eric Clapton performing “White Christmas”;

 

Some links

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A great deep dive on how to measure network effects from A16Z

Ben from Wertart with some general thoughts and reflections on investing 

A good overview on how Buffett’s investment focus changed over his carreer

Ben Thompson’s “State of the technology” is a very good read on Google & Co

AMD has benefited form the Crypto craze. Is it now a short candidate ?

“Big Beer” AB Inbev is facing headwinds

Manning  & Napier: Cheap active asset manager or gone for good ?

 

 

How to invest into Venture Capital – Listed Vehicles (part 1)

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One upfront remark: I do not recommend to invest in Venture Capital right now. The market is clearly overheated and the asset class is known to be very volatile although Warren Buffett’s Todd Combs seems to just have discovered Fintechs.

This post is ment as a “long-term perspective” view on the sector and not a buy recommendation in the current environment.

How to invest into Venture Capital as a Private Investor

Famous VC funds

Venture Capital, i.e. the industry funding (technology) start-ups is known that almost everything depends on relationships.

It is no secret that a few funds like Sequoia or Kleiner Perkins have produced outstanding returns but these funds are “invitation only”, there are little chances even for larger institutions to invest in them and for individuals without direct connections it is more or less impossible to get in.

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FitBit (FIT) follow up: Enough upside to justify the risk ?

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DISCLAIMER
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and don’t follow any anonymous bloggers.

Let’s continue with this nice “anti Buffett” stock from my post last week.

The people / founders

FitBit’s original founders from 2007, James Park and Eric Friedman are still on board.

Interestingly, although both ar only 41 years old, FitBit was the third company they founded together.

The other companies were Windup Labs, a photo sharing company they sold in 2005 and Epesi, a B2B software company that didn’t work out.

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Another return of the Watch Series: FitBit (FIT) – dead horse or exciting pivot ?

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Watches again…..

Although I wrote a lot about Watch companies over the past few years (Swatch part 1, Swatch part 2, Hengdeli, Fossil part 1, Fossil part 2, Movado, Richemont), no investment came out of it. However I had a lot of fun researching these companies so it was time well spent.

When I initiated the series in 3 years ago, Smart Watches were a big thing and especially the Apple Watch was perceived to be the “Swiss Watch” killer, which, as we know now didn’t happen as they seem to coexist quite well.

Besides Smart Watches, Fitness Trackers were the “hot shit” and especially VC backed FitBit that IPOed in 2015 was taking oer the world.

This chart shows Fitbit against Fossil (blue)  and Richemont (green) and we can clearly see who had staying power and who not:

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