Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Performance review 6m 2023 – “AI has saved the day”

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In the first 6 months of 2023, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +5,0% (including dividends, no taxes) against a gain of +12,8% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 6M 2023:

Partners Fund TGV: 3,6%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: 16,6%
Squad European Convictions +7,6%
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen 6,9%
Squad Aguja Special Situation +5,3%
Paladin One -0,8%
Alphastars Europe + 11,4%

Performance review:

Overall, the portfolio performance was in the lower third of my peer group. As the peer group is mostly Small cap focused, the overall relative low returns correspond with the returns of European small cap indices and are mosly well below Large cap indices. Looking at the monthly returns, it is not difficult to see that especially January and June were in relative terms very disappointing.

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Some links

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The usual ecclectic list of stock write-ups from Capital Employed

If you are a CFO and you want to raise money through a share placement, you better pay attention to the weather

A fantastic “Tour de Force” ride from Prof Damodaran across Chip companies and AI

The seven page memo, that resulted in a 105 mn seed funding round for Mistral.ai (without a product)

6M Portolio Update from the Augustusville blog

A short write-up on Fox Factory, a suspension specialist from Royce

R.i.P. Harry Markovitz, the “Father of Portfolio theory”.

All Norwegian Stocks part 10 – Nr. 136-150

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And on we go. With this post, I have passed the 50% threshold, so I am very optimistic to finish this before year end. This time, two stocks qualified for the preliminary watch list. Let’s go:

136. Norbit

Norbit is a 305 mn EUR market cap company has three distinct segment of which “Oceans delivers tailored technology to global maritime markets, Connectivity provides wireless solutions for identification, monitoring and tracking, while PIR offers R&D services, proprietary products and contract manufacturing.”

The company IPOed in 2019, and contrary to the 2020 IPO vintages, the share price has done quite well:

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Some links

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Verdad thinks that systematically shorting one day options could generate Alpha

Chemical companies are facing big fines for PFaS/ Forever Chemicals in the US (Hello Bayer !!!)

Already a few weeks old, but Prof. Damodarans post on what makes banks risky and the sequel on how to value bank stocks ar both worth reading

Clarke Square Capital thinks that now is the time for Lastminute.com to shine

Marc Andreesen (not surprisingly) thinks that AI will save the world

Ben Thompson is a big fan of the new Apple Vision Pro

And all you need to know about Farmland investing

Handelsbanken revisited – Learnings and what to do now ?

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This has become a quite long and somehow rambling post. If you look for “actionable investment advice”, then you don’t need to read this.

Background: Handelsbankon on the blog since 2015

One of the great things of an Investment Blog/Journal is that one can easily revisit everything that one has written years ago when I want to look at a stock again.

Handelsbanken is a stock that I have covered quite often since 2015. Initially, I compared Handelsbanken to Deutsche Bank in 2015, claiming that Handelsbanken is a much better run “quality bank” compared to Deutsche Bank and that Deutsche Bank, despite the much cheaper valuation, most likely the worse investment. This is how Handelsbanken has performed against Deutsch Bank and the European Banking index.

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Some links

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Great stock write up collection from Capital Employed

A new study seems to show that correctly identified sin stocks (Alcohol, Tobacco, Gambling) have positive alpha

Swen Lorenz shares some experiences from an investor trip to Turkey

An interesting deep dive into LSE after the Refinitiv take over from Marathoner

A good intro into the economics of “Big Gaming”

How will “Uncle Carl” Icahn’s endgame look like for IEP after the Hindenburg “attack” ?

Despite the “advice” of many financial pundits, writing covered calls is destroying value in the mid- and longterm

Lopgistec Update – “Strategic review” consideratios

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With a small delay, a few thoughts on the “strategic review process” at Logistec, a stock I had written up and added to my portfolio two months ago.

Govro has already published an excellent post about the situation in his Wintergem Blog here. He estimates that a sale at ~9xEV EBITDA could result in an offer of CAD 76 per share. However, he points out that this is just the start of a process and it could well be that there will be no sale at the end, especially as due to the high interest rates, the infrastructure sector is not super hot at the moment.

The Logistec share price has increased from around 43 CAD per share before the announcement to around 60 CAD at the time of writing. Funnily enough, this is almost exactly half way between the “undisturbed price” and Govro’s sale price estimate.

Correcting a mistake: Extra Asset

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“Freedom Insulation” – Follow up and Basket Update (Sto, Steico)

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOU OWN RESEARCH !!!

Some days ago, I made the case for a significant increase in demand for insulation in Europe for the next several years. In this post, I want to dig a little bit deeper into the main listed players and which I find more interesting. In general, even only for the German speaking region there are many companies that offer insulation, among them very large, diversified groups such as BASF, Dow Chemical and St. Gobain.

However, the following listed companies are those who do the majority of sales in insulation to my knowledge:

Kingspan, Irleand/UK
Rockwool, Denmark
Recticel, Belgium
Steico, Germany
Sto SE, Germany

Sto, Rockwool and Recticel are already in my portfolio with relatively small weights.

Before jumping into the companies, I have compiled a table with a few KPIs that i find interesting. One quick coment upfront: As Recticel is undergoing a signifcant transformation, their numbers are curently not comparable.

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Schaffner Group AG (ISIN CH0009062099) – Is this “Meier & Tobler 2.0” ?

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Disclaimer: This is not Investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!

Summary:

If you would ask me about the most boring stock of my generally very boring portfolio, I would possibly name Schaffner Group. I had bought a first position back in 2021 during my “All Swiss Stocks” series.

However, I have never written a more detailed write-up despit my annual summaries (2021/2022 , 2022/2023), maybe becasue I always got bored when I started writing about it ? Over time I added to the position and after the most recent 6 months numbers, I decided to increase into a full position. Time to explain the investment case a little bit better.

  1. The Company – Transformation

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All Norwegian Stocks Part 9 – Nr. 121-135

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And on we go, after a small break, with a fresh batch of 15 randomly selected Norwegian stocks. This time, the random number generator selected a wide variety of businesses compared to the ususal “Fsih & Ships”. 3 stocks made it onto the watch list, one of them had been in my portfolio in the past. Enjoy !!

121. HAV Group AS

HAV Group is a 32 mn EUR market cap supplier to the maritime industry. Looking at the website, they seem to focus on at least optically on “Green” technologies, for instance electric ships and hydrogen solutions.

That all sounds very good on paper and for 2021 has translated into decent profits, but 2022 looks very different, with declining sales and disappearing profits. Q4 2022 was especially bad with an EBIT margin of -16%.

Looking at the chart, we can see that the timing of the IPO in March 2021 seems to have been perfect….for those who were selling:

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