value and opportunity

This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Extra Health Warning

I guess some old time readers will think: Now that guy really lost his marbles or so. I have very little knowledge about Biotech companies and the industry in general and nothing qualifies me to write about a Biotech stock. My only experience with Biotech companies during the 10 years of the blog was Swiss based Actelion, but only as a special situation with a Spin-off component. So you might take this post as a warning signal that markets have become overheated and the author of this blog has indeed lost his marbles.

Management Summary:

Despite my limited experience and understanding of the sector, I do think that BioNTech represents an interesting “bet” on the success of the underlying mRNA technology and the ability of BioNTech to establish (or having already succeeded) a platform that will yield much more than just this one blockbuster Covid-19 vaccine but many other successful vaccines and cancer drugs (and more). Their intention to become a “full fledged” pharmaceutical company could be the start of a long “Compounding story” if successful, but there are also clearly many risks involved. 

BionTech history  IPO & “Pivot”

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Intro:

As part of an improved investment process, I will try to write better “post mortem” analysis after exiting an investment. I did this in the past especially for bad investments but I plan to do this now for every investment that I fully exit. Interestingly, very few fund mangers talk or write in detail why they have been selling. 

Installux post mortem:

As mentioned in the comments of the original post, I sold my Installux shares yesterday at around 390 EUR, netting a total gain of 206% or ~13,7% p.a. over ~ 8.5 years. 

Installux was my second longest standing position in the portfolio. I was able to buy the shares cheaply mostly on a “mechanical basis” in 2012. This was my summary back then:

We have a consistently growing and profitable business with very low volatility, attractive ROE and ROIC and a valuation of 2x EV/EBITDA and 5x P/E adjusted for cash (7.8 unadjusted) which produces a large amount of free cashflow despite growing nicely over the years.

So what happened since then ? This is how the stock price looks like for the last 10 years:

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