Category Archives: Anlage Philosophie

FEMSA – Is “the most interesting company in MExico” Interesting enough ?

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Background:

Whenever I hear a new name from different quality sources I am highly motivated to look at a stock even if it is outside my usual area of competence. FEMSA is such an example. I have seen FEMSA already in two funds of the “TGV Langfrist” family, it is the second largest position at Profitlich/Schmidlin and finally Swen Lorenz featured FEMSA in his latest weekly dispatch.

He mentions another (very good) FEMSA write-up which calls FEMSA “The most interesting company of Mexico” which is a very detailed write-up and highly recommended.

I try to summarize FEMSA in two bullet points:

  • FEMSA is a family owned conglomerate, consisting of an (economic) 15% stake in Heineken, a 47% stake in Coca Cola FEMSA (fully consolidated due to majority in votes) and an operating business consisting mostly of Mexican convenience stores called OXXO plus some other LatAm assets that is named the “Commercio” segment
  • Especially OXXO is a growing, high ROCE business which justifies a significant valuation multiple
  • It is expected that FEMSA monetizes its Heineken stake soon plus the big story is, that based on an existing OXXO prepaid debit card there is the option for OXXO to become the “Super App” of Mexico like WeChat/Tencent in China or Grab and GoJek in SE Asia

The stock chart of the ADR looks unimpressive, basically flat over the last 8 years in EUR terms after a huge rebound from the GFC:

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10 Years of Value & Opportunity – 10 Highlights, 10 LESSONS & 10 Books

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Again, time flies. Exactly 10 (!!) years ago on December 15th, 2010, I started this blog. 

FJ-10-anniversary-logo-cropped-236x179

As every year a very special “Thank You” goes  to all readers, especially those who actively contribute either by comments or mails. I need to keep on mentioning that the interaction with readers is really driving the motivation to continue the blog in this format.

In this post I will reflect mostly on writing the blog, highlights and lessons over the last 10 years plus my 10 all time favorite book reviews. There will be a 10 Year investment/performance review in the beginning of January 2021. 

Some numbers: 

10 year stat        
Year Visits % Germany Posts Comments
2011 93,811 na 411 694
2012 178,485 49.82% 266 1,368
2013 325,240 43.14% 168 1,243
2014 430,794 32.26% 121 1,068
2015 459,992 25.94% 110 1,105
2016 521,197 28.52% 113 1,645
2017 635,741 28.79% 114 1,580
2018 452,267 28.57% 92 784
2019 325,169 31.56% 84 563
2020 YTD 483,824 39.03% 107 1,211
         
Total 3,906,520   1,586 11,261

All in all, I managed to post ~1600 posts over these 10 years which created close to 4 mn visits. The drop of visits (and comments)  in 2018 & 2019 was clearly the result of posting less due to a lack of time from my side.

So why I am still doing this ?

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All German Shares Part 35 – Nr. 776-800

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Finally !!! This post will cover the remainder of the German stock universe. These remaining “newish” companies only yielded two watch list candidates Overall, I need now to slim down the watch list significantly to maybe 25-30 companies that I want to keep on my radar screen, but that will take some time.

As for the next country series (as time allows): My next target will be Switzerland. First, it is a smaller market with only around 240 local stocks according to the SIX, Secondly, I have currently  3 Swiss stocks in my portfolio (Zur Rose, Richemont, Dufry), so I have some hope that there are more interesting stocks on the Swiss market.

So enjoy the last batch of German stocks !!!!

776. Centogene AG

Centogene is a “rare disease” reseacrh company that seems to be a mixture of German/Dutch locations. The company went public on the Nasdaq in November 2019 at USD 14/ Share but lost around -30% since then. The market cap seems to be around 250 mn USD. Unfortunately not my area of competence, “pass”.

777. Cyan AG

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Travel Series: AIrBnB – “Baller IPO” or Desperate Hail Mary (including a 3.5 bn USD accounting time bomb) ?

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Intro

Long term readers know that I have covered the (online) travel industry intensively and that I actually have build up a “post pandemic travel basket” recently. Therefore, I was really excited to look at AirBnB’s S-1 going public filing.

Airbnb is one of the most prominent Unicorns of the last decade. The company was founded in 2007 and has since then become one of the really big names in online travel. It describes itself as having established a new category of travel called “home sharing” and that all the hosts on the platform as well as the clients are a big “community” that make travel “Human”.

However the big “elephant in the room” is the question: Why do they go public now after 13 years ? Why didn’t they go public earlier or wait a few more months once the travel recovery really kicks in ?

There was already a lot of press coverage already for Airbnb in the past weeks. I think in general one could distinguish between the Bull Case and the Bear Case:

The Bull case :

  • It’s a “positive” global brand with strong growth potential and a huge TAM (all travel lodging globally ) 
  • People will rent apartments first if travel rebounds 
  • Restrictions maybe less a problem in cities after Covid-19

One of the biggest cheerleaders of the Bull case is clearly Prof. Scott Galloway who wrote a big post some days ago, putting the value of AirBnB at 120 bn USD with the following statement:

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Short cuts: Hello (again) Magnus And Forced German Stock Delistings (Centrotec)

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Disclaimer: this is not investment research. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

Play Magnus Group – Again

I really hesitated if I should keep this private but then decided against it. Believe it or not, I have again bought shares in Play Magnus. After initially buying the stock at around 16,90 NOK per share, I sold the shares at a loss at 14 NOK per share. Buying now again a 2% position at 17 NOK per share looks extremely stupid, but these are the reasons why I still did it:

  • when I bought the shares initially, I knew very little about them and I underestimated the volatility of Norwegian small caps which can easily move+-10% on a single day
  • With the stock falling so quickly and with no news, I was afraid that some people might know more about the Q3 numbers which would be the first quarterly earnings after the IPO

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Siemens Energy AG Spin-OFF – ANother Interesting Member of the “Ugly duckling Spin-off Family” ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

At first a big “health warning”: My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones (Cars.com, Metro). My best spin-off investment so far was Italgas.

Siemens Spin-off history

Siemens itself is an interesting case, as under (soon to be former) CEO Joe Kaeser, and even before, they are one of the few German companies that use spin-offs more or less frequently. Over the years, Siemens has spun off for instance Quimonda (bankrupt), Infineon (has recovered quite well), Osram (taken over by AMS) and Siemens-Gamesa (very volatile but strong performance lately). Overall I would say that on average the Siemens Spin-offs did very well despite being mostly “ugly ducks” at the time of spinning off. Siemens Healthineers in comparison was not an ugly duck (despite the stupid name) and that’s why they actually IPOed it.

Siemens Energy AG Spin-off

This is the latest spin-off from Siemens, spun-off on September 28th with a first price of around 22 EUR, a lot lower than initially expected. As we can see in the chart, the shares dropped at first but now recovered to the initial level in line with Siemens AG and the DAX:

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Panic Journal Season 2 (3) – “There’s a Light”

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Just a few days ago we had a total different situation when I wrote my last panic journal entry:

Covid-19 infections went parabolic again, lock downs had already started, the US election was still in front of us, there was really bad weather and markets were in a suddenly very depressive mood.

Just 8 or 9 days later, things look different:  Joe Biden has won and The German-American Duo Pfizer-Biontech released very promising (early) results of its Phase III Study.

As I am not a vaccine/Virus expert, I’ll link to a post on how to interpret the results and try to summarize them:

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All German Shares PArt 34 – Nr. 751-775

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At first some good (or bad) news: By going through the German stock markets once again, I detected that my initial list was already outdated and that I missed quite some new IPOs and listings, so there will be (at least) one more post with German shares after this one before I then can wrap up the series into a condensed watch list.

This time, the 25 (to a certain extent) randomly selected (and US election free) stocks resulted in seven stocks that might be in principal worth watching and/or follow up.

751. L-KONZEPT Holding AG

L-Konzept is a 2.7 mn EUR market cap real estate company that has little business and small but consistent losses. “pass”.

752. Krones AG

Krones, a 1.7 bn market cap company is often considered one of the typical “hidden champions”, being the world leader in manufacturing bottling machinery for the beverage industry. With Covid-19, the whole beverage industry is clearly negatively effected which in turn might make business more difficult for Krones. However if we look at the stock chart, we can see that the stock already peaked in 2018:

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Panic Journal Season 2 – The Dancing is getting Much Harder

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Back in lock down mode

Four weeks after my first post of “season 2” it is pretty clear: Wave 2 of Covid-19 is definitely here and growing.

In contrast to my assumption and the general feeling 4 weeks ago, Europe is now back in lock down mode. Certain areas in the UK, Spain, France, Italy and Belgium went into different forms of lock down already a few days ago. Here in Germany I think many Germans got the message, when the German Health Minister Jens Spahn had to announce that he got infected a few days ago. 

A “lock down light” will come into force in Germany on Monday with restrictions on contacts and closure of Restaurants and Bars. Austria just announced a harder version which for instance disallows any private visits after 8 pm which in effect is a 8pm curfew under another name.

What’s different this time compared to the first lock down ?

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All German Shares part 33 – Nr. 726-750

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And another 25 (almost) randomly selected stocks. This time 5 stocks were in my opinion worth “watching”. As it looks now, there will be only one more post in this series.

726. Smart Equity AG

A 1.7 mn EUR market cap company that calls itself “Experts on Crypto currencies”. “Pass”.

727. InnoTec TSS AG

Innotec is an 88 mn EUR market cap supplier to the construction industry. The company had a nice run up, increasing more than 10x from its low in 2009 until early 2017 as we can see in the chart:

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