Category Archives: Anlage Philosophie

My 22 (+1) investments for 2019

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Edit: I actually forgot to include Expedia…..

This post has become now a small tradition at the end of December and is also very helpful for me to review my holdings.

The summaries of the previous years can be found here:

My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

From the 21 stocks of last year, 4 have left the portfolio:

Silver Chef and Metro were clear mistakes from my side and I exited them as discussed with significant losses. IGE & XAO was a much more positive case. The company received a buy-out offer from Schneider SA and I exited at 138 EUR per share. DOM Security finally was merged into the main shareholder company SFPI. Luckily, I could sell 40% of my holdings at 75 EUR/ share.

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Ahlsell (ISIN SE0009155005) – Interesting pre-Christmas Special Situation ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, only the personal opinion of an anonymous blogger. PLEASE DO YOU OWN RESEARCH !!!!

Background:

Ahlsell is a Swedish company that distributes building / renovation related products mainly to craftsmen in the Nordic Region. In 2012, the company was taken private by private equity house CVC.

In 2016, Ahlsell was IPOed again by CVC at SEK 46 per share. They sold 1/3 of their shares in the IPO and then down to 25,1% just some weeks ago.

Then more or less out of the blue a few days ago, CVC offered again to take Ahlsell private at 55 SEk/share which translates into a valuation slightly north of 2 bn EUR for the equity.

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8 Years of Value & Opportunity: Staying alive..

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Once a year in mid-December I always realize quite suddenly that another year has passed and Value and Opportunity is now 8 years old since the first post in 2010.

As I mentioned earlier this year, for very positive reasons, both private and professional, activity in the blog did not reach the standards of the previous years.

Looking back, I still managed to look a these companies in more detail:

  1. Getinge / Arjo spin-off
  2. Softbank (part 1 and part 2
  3. Landis & Gyr
  4. Boiron SA
  5. Expedia
  6. Criteo SA
  7. Saga Plc
  8. Paul Hartmann
  9. Creditshelf
  10. DormaKaba
  11. SIAS SpA (revisited)
  12. FitBit
  13. System1
  14. Listed VC funds part 1
  15. Listed VC funds part 2 – Vostok New Ventures

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How to invest into Venture Capital part 2: Augmentum, Vostok & others

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This is the follow-up on part 1 some days ago.. These were the listed VC vehicles,I presented as the base in part 1 (in brackets my short vote for the first 4)

  • Softbank (too crazy)
  • Kinnevik (Yes)
  • Rocket Internet (bad rep)
  • German Startup Group (no thanks)
  • Vostok New Ventures
  • Vostok Emerging Finance
  • Augmentum

I have added two US vehicles to this list:

  • Firsthand Technology Value Fund (SVVC)
  • GSV Capital (GSVC)

A few thoughts on Permanent Capital vs. “classical” fund structure vs. “SPACs”

In the previous post, one commentator mentioned that he was “sceptical of permanent capital” vehicles. Personally I would not support this. Berkshire Hathaway for instance is a permanent investment vehicle with quite some success. However there are other vehicles like Greenlight Re or Bill Ackman’s Persing NV which clearly have done a lousy job for shareholders as we can see in this chart: (Greenlight in yellow, Pershing Square blue):

greenlight pershing

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How to invest into Venture Capital – Listed Vehicles (part 1)

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One upfront remark: I do not recommend to invest in Venture Capital right now. The market is clearly overheated and the asset class is known to be very volatile although Warren Buffett’s Todd Combs seems to just have discovered Fintechs.

This post is ment as a “long-term perspective” view on the sector and not a buy recommendation in the current environment.

How to invest into Venture Capital as a Private Investor

Famous VC funds

Venture Capital, i.e. the industry funding (technology) start-ups is known that almost everything depends on relationships.

It is no secret that a few funds like Sequoia or Kleiner Perkins have produced outstanding returns but these funds are “invitation only”, there are little chances even for larger institutions to invest in them and for individuals without direct connections it is more or less impossible to get in.

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Updates: DOM Security, April SA, Metro Bank Plc & Metro AG

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A few (random) updates on stocks I own or looked at in the past:

DOM Security:

Already 3 weeks ago, they issued a document how and when the merger will be completed. If I understood everything correctly, the ratio will be 20 SFPI shares for one DOM Security share and completion is on or around 13. November 2018.

DOM currently trades at 53 EUR, SFPI at 2,61 EUR, so the relative price is pretty efficient. I plan to stay invested and over time increase the position from 3% currently (after selling 40% at the tender offer at 75 EUR) to a full position. I think it makes sense to stay with founder Mr. Morel for the future.

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System1 (ISIN B00B1GVQH21) – Warren Buffett “Collateral Damage” or Structural Headwinds ?

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System1 (or under its old name Braijuicer) is a good example for a stock where it didn’t pay off to hold if we look at the chart:

system1

I had looked briefly at them when Ben from Wertart bought them in early 2016 but back then didn’t take the time understand what the company was all about. After the huge drop I decided to have a deeper lok at the company.

The business

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FitBit (FIT) follow up: Enough upside to justify the risk ?

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DISCLAIMER
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and don’t follow any anonymous bloggers.

Let’s continue with this nice “anti Buffett” stock from my post last week.

The people / founders

FitBit’s original founders from 2007, James Park and Eric Friedman are still on board.

Interestingly, although both ar only 41 years old, FitBit was the third company they founded together.

The other companies were Windup Labs, a photo sharing company they sold in 2005 and Epesi, a B2B software company that didn’t work out.

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Performance review 9M 2018 – Comment “Anti Buffett or Beyond Buffett ?”

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Performance 9M 2018:

In the first 6 months of 2018, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained +3,38% (including dividends, no taxes) against -2,2% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).

Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in Q1 2018:

Partners Fund TGV: +6,95%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -0,21%
Squad European Convictions +1,97%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos +2,16% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -4,42%
Evermore Global Value -1,59% (in USD)
Greiff Special Situation -1.91%
Squad Aguja Special Situation -3,86%
Paladin One +1,5%

Performance attribution:

The top 3 performers on a weighted basis were for 9M 2018 were:

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Another return of the Watch Series: FitBit (FIT) – dead horse or exciting pivot ?

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Watches again…..

Although I wrote a lot about Watch companies over the past few years (Swatch part 1, Swatch part 2, Hengdeli, Fossil part 1, Fossil part 2, Movado, Richemont), no investment came out of it. However I had a lot of fun researching these companies so it was time well spent.

When I initiated the series in 3 years ago, Smart Watches were a big thing and especially the Apple Watch was perceived to be the “Swiss Watch” killer, which, as we know now didn’t happen as they seem to coexist quite well.

Besides Smart Watches, Fitness Trackers were the “hot shit” and especially VC backed FitBit that IPOed in 2015 was taking oer the world.

This chart shows Fitbit against Fossil (blue)  and Richemont (green) and we can clearly see who had staying power and who not:

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